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View Full Version : Low temp this weekend?



Brad
08-18-2007, 04:10 AM
According to Ryan's comments this morning we are looking at a cold weekend.

1. What will the low real temperature be?

2. According to the Conditions images, what will the lowest windchill?

These questions expire at 8AM Monday.

JimS
08-18-2007, 07:27 AM
This is a very cold air mass, and I think that the Observers did a good job drawing attention to that fact. Their forecast of Mid 20s tonight seems spot on. What I was suprised to see was that one of the model outputs, that does a poor job seeing extreme events, put out a low of 24. A big wow to see guidence that low in august!

What I was more excited to see is that the second night into the cold air mass, when valleys are at their coldest, Berlin MIGHT actually fall to just above the freezing mark with proper cooling factors?!?! Mid thirties in August in the north country...impressive!!!

Brad
08-18-2007, 11:39 AM
Here is a composite of the deck image and the current weather. A wee bit nippy for August.

http://images27.fotki.com/v993/photos/1/1002902/4071997/mwowidget200708181130-vi.jpg

Charlie
08-18-2007, 11:48 AM
well i would love to be going up there this weekend ,nice and cool .
i can see all the people coming up the rail line freezing a bit when they get to the top in there shorts .
lets see a little snow .

Charlie
08-18-2007, 05:16 PM
starting to get a little cold up top
http://images27.fotki.com/v991/photos/1/1002902/5270828/20070818_170623_conditions-vi.jpg

Bill O
08-18-2007, 08:53 PM
Looks like they are below freezing with fog.....make that freezing fog.

Charlie
08-18-2007, 08:55 PM
thats cool ha ha ha

Steve M
08-18-2007, 09:24 PM
well i would love to be going up there this weekend ,nice and cool .
i can see all the people coming up the rail line freezing a bit when they get to the top in there shorts .
lets see a little snow .
Yeah, where was this weather two weeks ago when we were up there? We left the 90's down here just to find the 90's up there. We were hoping to escape the heat but it followed us up there!

Brad
08-18-2007, 10:00 PM
Was Madison4 going to summit today? Hope he was prepared for a change in temp.

Charlie
08-18-2007, 10:05 PM
like they say it is better to have to much then not to have it when you need it .

Brad
08-18-2007, 10:05 PM
The 10:00 PM Conditions page was just posted. The wind seems to have peaked and the temp has leveled out. Wind chill of 14 degrees in August!

http://images29.fotki.com/v1016/photos/1/1002902/5270828/20070818_220115_conditions-vi.jpg

Charlie
08-18-2007, 10:07 PM
but we will see in the morning how cold it gets when the wind picks up

treant985
08-18-2007, 10:32 PM
Amazingly, some places in Michigan have been recording temps below freezing just recently, too. Spincich Lake, Stonington, and Champion, MI, all recorded 28 this morning, and several others came in under 32.

Of course, some mountainous places in ID and MT have recorded some sub-freezing temps throughout the summer. Embarrass, Minnesota, recorded 33 on 8/16.

However, even counting the mountain spots, if MW can get to 25, I think it'll be the first place in the lower 48 to record a temp that low since Mammoth Lakes, CA, recorded 20 on June 7.

bclark
08-19-2007, 11:03 AM
First of all, I suppose I should introduce myself since this is my first post on the forums. My name is Brian Clark and I am one of the observers on the summit.

Anyways, it didn't get as cold last night as we had thought it would. The temperature also took a lot longer to get below freezing than we had anticipated. Still, we tied the record low for August 19th this morning. I measured a 6 hour minumum temperature of 29.1 degrees at the 7 a.m. synoptic observation. A low of 29 degrees on August 19th was last recorded in 1958.

Yesterday, we reached a low of 29.9 degrees, a mere 0.5 degrees away from tying the daily record low for August 18th, also 29 degrees.

A peak wind gust was recorded out of the N at 94 mph yesterday. This is the highest wind gust we have seen all summer. There were also several other gusts that exceeded 92 mph.

All in all, not bad for August! I was already anxious for winter to set in up here and this certainly hasn't helped!

Charlie
08-19-2007, 05:13 PM
it is still strange how cold it is up there 34* in august
i think i need to be a full time care taker up there :D

Brad
08-19-2007, 05:56 PM
it is still strange how cold it is up there 34* in august
i think i need to be a full time care taker up there :D
I am sure that you take a lot to be taken care of. :cool: Wouldn't you be a "caregiver"?

Charlie
08-19-2007, 06:08 PM
yes ......

Anthonyplt
08-20-2007, 11:17 AM
I have been on this forum asking about hiking with kids (four kids, three adults, and 1/2 the hike with Jake from Lakes). Well, we hiked through this Saturday from Mizpah hut to Lakes and it was scary. We had to hit the ground numerous times to stop from being blow over. I'll have a full report very soon with no pictures of the 5 mile hike because we couldn't see anything. The hut staff was great! Unfortunately, we didn't summit the mountain Sunday morning as everyone was tired and worn out. WE WILL BE BACK as we did have a great time!:o

desertwurm
08-20-2007, 12:07 PM
My Dad and I hiked on Saturday and I can attest to the scary weather. We did the Amm. to the Lake of the Clouds Hut, then braved the Crawford path the rest of the way to the summit. The last stretch was insane-it was hailing, the wind was pushing us around, and we could barely see one cairn from the next- but we made it to the summit! After we warmed up and ate, we headed back down the Crawford path, took the gulfside to the cog, followed the cog down where they are working on making something (new powerlines I think) untill it caught up with the Jewell which we took down. The wind was blowing in our faces the whole way down untill we got below the tree line.

It made for an awesome experience. After the Hut, you just had to push yourself, mentally and physically, because the weather was getting worse and worse as you approached the summit, and you were getting wetter and colder and being pelted by hail. Going down it was easier because you knew the weather was getting better as you went down.

Brad
08-20-2007, 12:09 PM
Glad to hear you made it and are safe. That can be a tough time up there above treeline. I am sure the visibility was almost zero.

rockin rex
08-20-2007, 12:34 PM
Another example of how bad the weather can get on the traverse above tree line. I have been above tree with high winds and zero visibility and it is not fun. It is especially scarey with kids because you become solely responsible for their well being. When the winds are blowing you off your feet and you can't see the next cairn your safety very much becomes what you have in your pack. As has been stated so many times on this forum ALWAYS BE PREPARED. It is great to see you were prepared for the weather and all made it across safely even with the horrendus weather. The croo at Lakes are great people.

Steve M
08-20-2007, 12:42 PM
Glad to hear you all had a great time and made it through the rough weather. It sure gives you guys a taste of how bad things can get as well as a new experience of life above tree line.

Bill O
08-20-2007, 01:58 PM
I had 39.6F on my weather station in VT this morning.

Smashing my three year record for August of 45F. That is to say, I only have three years of data from my VT station.

Brad
08-20-2007, 02:03 PM
I had 39.6F on my weather station in VT this morning.

Smashing my three year record for August of 45F. That is to say, I only have three years of data from my VT station.
An Ice Age has started.

Bill O
08-20-2007, 02:11 PM
An Ice Age has started.

Clearly. I'll begin profiteering and hoarding.

Brad
08-20-2007, 02:20 PM
I just invested heavily in a snow shovel manufacturing company. I took a big loss by pulling the money out of that ice cube maker company. But, this is a sure thing.

bclark
08-20-2007, 05:42 PM
The last stretch was insane-it was hailing, the wind was pushing us around, and we could barely see one cairn from the next- but we made it to the summit!


...and being pelted by hail.


Actually, it was sleet that was pelting you. I recorded a mix of sleet and rain most of the day on the summit on Saturday.

Sleet is very similar to hail in the sense that they are both balls of ice, however they form in very different ways.

Hail is formed in the very high, cold cloud tops of severe thunderstorms. The process itself is a bit lengthy to describe, but if someone would like to know I would be glad to explain it.

Sleet on the other hand starts as snow high in the atmosphere then falls through a warm layer of air in the middle of the atmosphere and melts. If this melted snow, which is now rain, then falls through a shallow cold layer at the surface (or in this case Mt. Washington), then it freezes into small pellets of ice, or sleet. If the cold layer at the surface is extremely shallow, then that is when freezing rain will occur because the melted snow does not have time to freeze into sleet.

Also, hail is a result of convection, while sleet falls from stratiform clouds.

Sorry if I am being picky, but as a meteorologist, it is a pet peeve of mine when people don't differentiate between hail and sleet correctly. But then again, us meteorologists can be a little wierd sometimes, haha :D

But regardless, sleet does definitely hurt when it is hitting your face at 70 mph like it was on Saturday! I was only going outside in that for a few minutes to take an obsevation, I can only imagine what it felt like hiking up Crawford while that was going on!


After we warmed up and ate, we headed back down the Crawford path, took the gulfside to the cog, followed the cog down where they are working on making something (new powerlines I think) untill it caught up with the Jewell which we took down.

What you saw is a powerline being put in along the Cog. It's actually the first time that there will be a power line running from the valley to the summit...once it's finished.

Steve M
08-20-2007, 05:53 PM
I just invested heavily in a snow shovel manufacturing company. I took a big loss by pulling the money out of that ice cube maker company. But, this is a sure thing.
I don't know about that, I think you made a mistake. That ice cube maker would sell like hot cakes down here. We can't seem to get below 95 degrees. I'm melting, I'm melting...We need a volcano to erupt over Florida for awhile that would block out the sun!:D

Brad
08-20-2007, 07:51 PM
You are in Florida. That is like on another planet. We have started the Ice Age in VT. Who knows what we are going to do to Florida. :cool:

Bill O
08-20-2007, 08:28 PM
I saw 32 at Berlin this morning.

Steve M
08-20-2007, 09:54 PM
I saw 32 at Berlin this morning.
Hey, I grew up in Berlin!:D

Steve M
08-20-2007, 09:56 PM
You are in Florida. That is like on another planet. We have started the Ice Age in VT. Who knows what we are going to do to Florida. :cool:
I have an idea, maybe you could drag it up there off the coast of Maine. That would be sweet! Then I could live down here and up there at the same time!:p

Steve M
08-20-2007, 09:57 PM
sorry, that was way off topic in this thread. Lets get back to low temps.;)

Brad
08-21-2007, 05:10 AM
According to the Conditions page and the Summit Forecast, low temperatures are passee. Wind is down and temperature is on the rise.

Bill O
08-21-2007, 08:07 AM
The valleys are still coming in cold. Hit 39.3F at my place in Vermont this morning. Even colder than last night, and now officially a low of 39F in August in the Champlain Valley.

treant985
08-21-2007, 03:20 PM
The lowest at a major station this morning was 31 at Saranac Lake, NY. Whitefield came in at 33.

Sutton, VT, recorded 32, as did a few in Maine. St. Aurelie, ME, recorded 31.

Those are the lowest I can find.

By the way, it might interest some of you to know that MW's 29 on the 19th was the lowest anywhere in the country, including Alaska. Maybe a station or two in the high CA mtns (like the ghost town of Bodie) got colder, but they don't report their data until the end of the month.

As far as I can tell, it was the first time since Oct 6, 2006, that Mt. Washington was the coldest spot in the nation, although I'm missing some data from May of this year. They tied at 22F with Northway, AK, and Spincich Lake, MI, that day.

The last time MWO had the coldest OUTRIGHT temp was Sept 29, 2006, when we reached 22 on the summit, with Bodie's 23 the next coldest.