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JimS
09-27-2007, 03:04 PM
Okay, we haven't run a contest here in a while, and I'd like to sponsor one for the upcoming month.

October has been extremely variable with respect to snowfall in years past. It's usually feast or famine. The average does not really represent the month well. While the average is 14 inches, nearly 80 inches have fallen in the month before. And with 80 inches on one side, you can imagine there are many LOW totals to kick it back down to 14 for an average.

So here's the pool. Guess the final cumulative October snowfall to the decimal. Normal rounding rules apply...aka, no closest without going over. Just closest period.

Winner will recieve an matted 8x10 or 8x12 photo of the Whites from my collection. My choice...

Deadline for entries is Midnight on the 4th!

Good luck!
JimS

PS...Info can be found ...
Here: http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/normals.php
and
here: http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/

JimS
09-27-2007, 03:05 PM
I get to bet too...

10.2 Inches

Patrad Fischroy
09-27-2007, 03:13 PM
To throw in my 2 cents worth, with la nina strengthening and some planetary... er strike that, I put in a high number of 40"

bclark
09-27-2007, 04:15 PM
I get to bet too...

10.2 Inches

So wait, if you win Jim, do you get a matted photo from your own collection?? :p

Are observers eligible? I don't have a guess yet though. I need to think about it, look at some data and try not to let my snow bias take hold....

Patrad Fischroy
09-27-2007, 04:49 PM
Are observers eligible? I don't have a guess yet though. I need to think about it, look at some data and try not to let my snow bias take hold....


I don't know, insider information and all... Or wait, even worse, data manipulation!!! :eek:

Steve M
09-27-2007, 04:56 PM
I don't know, insider information and all... Or wait, even worse, data manipulation!!! :eek:
He will have a lot worse problems if he manipulates the data for this contest I'm sure!!:D

I will have to think about this as well.

Rich
09-27-2007, 05:48 PM
12.3"

It can be nothing but a guess.

JimS
09-27-2007, 06:02 PM
So wait, if you win Jim, do you get a matted photo from your own collection?? :p

Are observers eligible? I don't have a guess yet though. I need to think about it, look at some data and try not to let my snow bias take hold....

Observers are eligible. No shenanagins!

If I win, I decorate my wall...

treant985
09-27-2007, 06:06 PM
I'll go with 24.8"

treant985
09-27-2007, 06:12 PM
Any idea of starting an October Low Temp pool? I would do it, but I don't think I have anything that's worthy as a prize....

JimS
09-27-2007, 06:47 PM
Any idea of starting an October Low Temp pool? I would do it, but I don't think I have anything that's worthy as a prize....

You could always offer to drop ship one of these to the winner:
http://www.mountwashington.org/store/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=2&products_id=117

With the classic logo, it'll be all the more meaningful to the winner! ;)

Bill O
09-27-2007, 07:32 PM
We could also do it without the prize. With the winner being declared the smartest, at least in terms of guessing October snowfall.

Sorry guys, I'm going with famine this year.

2.1"

I reserve the right to change my guess up to the cutoff time. Especially if they get 2.1" on the 1st.

Jim I applaud you for taking on this challenge. Confusion is sure to abound.

Steve M
09-27-2007, 08:44 PM
You could always offer to drop ship one of these to the winner:
http://www.mountwashington.org/store/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=2&products_id=117

With the classic logo, it'll be all the more meaningful to the winner! ;)
Yea, I could put it next to my Conway Scenic Railway glass!

I'm putting in my uneducated guess for 18.2"

kaseri
09-27-2007, 10:10 PM
My guess is 16.3"

Tim&Val
09-28-2007, 07:02 AM
Hi Guys!

I'll go for 29.5. Call it wishful thinking!!

Valerie

bclark
09-30-2007, 08:49 AM
Alright, I'm ready to make my entry into the contest.

Unfortunately, I don't think that we are going to see a repeat of the last two Octobers. The trend for the first 7-14 days of October is awfully warm...so warm that it depresses me. I was hoping to be skiing in the east snowfields by the end of October! Now of course I have to remind myself that the last two Octobers have been nothing short of unusual and that's not what every October is going to be like. I also don't think that this October will be representative of our upcoming winter on the whole.

Now on the other hand, through the course of the summer, there has been one or two cold shots each month, most of them coming with at least some frozen precipitation as well(fortunately, almost all of them have been on my shift :D). Considering that, and looking at some data, I think that trend will continue even if we do have an overall warm month. I also think that we get at least one or two decent snowfalls this month. So, my somewhat educated guess is:

14.8 inches

Sorry for being long winded, talking about the weather and snow cheers me up a bit after Penn State's horrible performance yesterday :(

Charlie
09-30-2007, 10:28 AM
i will go with 13.9"

FisherCat
09-30-2007, 09:16 PM
I'm in. I'll call 17.3

Mike D
10-01-2007, 10:17 AM
My guess: 21.6"

Cor2277
10-01-2007, 10:18 AM
well since today's my 22nd birthday annnnndd i'm doing my first fall hike in the white mountains next weekend annnnnd i want there to be snow I'm gonna go with 22.77" (very uneducated but my two favorite numbers seem to be as good a guess as any when it comes to snow in october on mt wash) :)

Mike D
10-01-2007, 11:25 AM
The trend for the first 7-14 days of October is awfully warm...so warm that it depresses me.

Recall October, 2005. Record October high of 62 deg F on the 5th followed within a week by 3 feet of snow. So trends can change... bigtime.

JimS
10-01-2007, 01:05 PM
With a few days left to close the pool...

BillO = 2.1
JimS = 10.2
Rich = 12.3
hawk = 13.9
BClark = 14.8
kaseri = 16.3
FisherCat = 17.3
WSR88D = 18.2
MikeD = 21.6
Cor2277 = 22.77
Treant985 = 24.8
Tim&Val = 29.5
Patrad Fischroy = 40.0

Get those guesses goin!!!

Brad
10-01-2007, 04:50 PM
I am going on the slim side with 10.0

gamway
10-02-2007, 08:35 AM
I want lots, so let's go with 44.4.

Brad
10-02-2007, 09:02 AM
And the pool closes at what time on the 4th?

Steve M
10-02-2007, 01:24 PM
Midnight I think.

JimS
10-02-2007, 03:05 PM
And the pool closes at what time on the 4th?

11:59PM on October 4th will end the time for entering this pool. That is to say, at the conclusion of October 4th, the pool will close. There will be no entries allowed past the designated time of 11:59PM on the 4th.

bosco41
10-02-2007, 03:10 PM
11.3 that should do it

Rich
10-02-2007, 04:19 PM
Would anyone happen to know when the deadline to enter this contest ends? Or when guesses can no longer be entered? Jim?? Just wondering, that's all.....:rolleyes: :o :p :D


always a wise guy in the crowd...

Bill O
10-02-2007, 06:25 PM
Would anyone happen to know when the deadline to enter this contest ends? Or when guesses can no longer be entered? Jim?? Just wondering, that's all.....:rolleyes: :o :p :D


always a wise guy in the crowd...

10/4 at midnight. And unless you have a crystal ball your guess now would be just as good.

Steve M
10-02-2007, 07:38 PM
At the end of the 23rd day of our moon, there shall be no more entries!:p

Brad
10-04-2007, 04:01 PM
Okay - now for my real entry 6.0.

PatriciaS
10-04-2007, 04:54 PM
I will take a stab at this too.... I am going to guess 9.6

Brian...I feel your pain in regards to last weeks Penn State game. It was not pretty. ;-(

KD Talbot
10-04-2007, 07:07 PM
11" That's my guess. It'll have to get a lot colder up there, though. I was swimming in the Dry River in Crawford Notch today.
KDT

Steve M
10-04-2007, 07:52 PM
I was swimming in the Dry River in Crawford Notch today.
KDT
Yea, but you didn't get wet.

KD Talbot
10-04-2007, 09:12 PM
I see you've been swimming there before. Just another White Mountain Oddity.
KDT

JimS
10-05-2007, 06:07 AM
Well, Midnight has come and gone, and the pool is now closed. We'll leave this thread open to talk about snow. I'll revise my origional post with this list as well...

Best of luck and bring on the snow!

BillO = 2.1
Brad = 6.0
PatriciaS = 9.6
JimS = 10.2
KD Talbot = 11.0
bosco41 = 11.3
Rich = 12.3
hawk = 13.9
BClark = 14.8
kaseri = 16.3
FisherCat = 17.3
WSR88D = 18.2
MikeD = 21.6
Cor2277 = 22.77
Treant985 = 24.8
Tim&Val = 29.5
Patrad Fischroy = 40.0
Gamway = 44.4

Brad
10-05-2007, 07:08 AM
See Bill O, I was polite to you. I could have crowded in with a 2.2 since it is "closest and not over". I gave you a little room in there.

Steve M
10-05-2007, 08:47 AM
Not too bad, 18 participants. With all those that are members though I would have thought that more would have participated. Any measurable snowfall yet?????????:D

Brad
10-05-2007, 08:46 PM
We need to have a running total for the month posted here every time we have a day with snow - unless Bill O gets it and it is a real quiet month.

JimS
10-06-2007, 06:28 PM
Mixed precip is in the forecast tonight...could we get the first 0.1" of the month????

Steve M
10-06-2007, 07:42 PM
Mixed precip is in the forecast tonight...could we get the first 0.1" of the month????
lets hope for 0.2" tonight!;)

freehill
10-07-2007, 10:20 PM
How about 19.9" let it snow

WEMT
10-07-2007, 11:48 PM
42.723

NOTE: This is extra padding because of some silly limitation that stated that the message I had entered, before I added this text, of course, was too short, I'd guess. I hope that I've gotten past the arbitrary and capricious limit with this added prose.

Bill O
10-08-2007, 06:56 AM
Freehill and WEMT you are too late. Not that you guys have an advantage, but rules are rules.

Steve M
10-09-2007, 08:00 AM
Looks like we got some ice but no snow last night, oh well, we still got 3 weeks to go.

JimS
10-13-2007, 07:00 AM
AND AN OFFICIAL 0.2" LAST NIGHT!!!

Brings the total for the month to 0.2!!!

Knapper
10-14-2007, 05:16 AM
We received another 1.1" on the 12th so the total for y'all is 1.3" and slowly growing.

Steve M
10-14-2007, 09:48 AM
We received another 1.1" on the 12th so the total for y'all is 1.3" and slowly growing.
Awesome, keep it coming!:D

Bill O
10-14-2007, 01:49 PM
It's been real, but I think the bad news for me is coming in just a matter of minutes.

...Thankfully I'm still in until they go over 4".

Brad
10-14-2007, 03:57 PM
It's been real, but I think the bad news for me is coming in just a matter of minutes.

...Thankfully I'm still in until they go over 4".
I think that you are in once the amount gets to 2.1 inches and still in till 5.9 inches. That is why I commented I could have crowded in on you by going with 2.2 inches when I selected my final number. The only way you could have won was to exactly hit 2.1 inches. I did not think that was a fair move.

Bill O
10-14-2007, 04:06 PM
I think that you are in once the amount gets to 2.1 inches and still in till 5.9 inches. That is why I commented I could have crowded in on you by going with 2.2 inches when I selected my final number. The only way you could have won was to exactly hit 2.1 inches. I did not think that was a fair move.

Check Jim's first post. Its whoever is closest, nothing complicated, no Price is Right, just the closest.

Brad
10-14-2007, 04:14 PM
Check Jim's first post. Its whoever is closest, nothing complicated, no Price is Right, just the closest.
You are right.

Weatherwizard
10-15-2007, 07:04 PM
I'll go with 27.4"

Bill O
10-15-2007, 08:26 PM
I'll go with 27.4"

Maybe next month, but you don't get to start playing the game halfway through.

Mike D
10-15-2007, 09:09 PM
I'll go with 27.4"
We had several late entrants. If they win, they have to get a prize for the rest of us :)

Charlie
10-15-2007, 09:52 PM
We had several late entrants. If they win, they have to get a prize for the rest of us :)


sounds good to me :D :D

Brad
10-15-2007, 09:56 PM
sounds good to me :D :D
Did you change your name to protect the innocent - Rosie?

Charlie
10-15-2007, 10:01 PM
no i just thought it makes things a little easier because some people call me hawk but thats a nick name

Steve M
10-15-2007, 10:31 PM
no i just thought it makes things a little easier because some people call me hawk but thats a nick name
Should we all change our screen names to our real names???:confused:

On the Hourly Report - NWS Server page, are the precipitation accumulation measurements a liquid equivalent or is that snow depth? I'm guessing it's L.E. because it certainly wouldn't take much to make one one hundredth of an inch in depth.

Brad
10-16-2007, 06:13 AM
no i just thought it makes things a little easier because some people call me hawk but thats a nick name
Mine is my nickname too. I am not sure we should discuss here what people call me.

bclark
10-16-2007, 08:19 AM
Should we all change our screen names to our real names???:confused:

On the Hourly Report - NWS Server page, are the precipitation accumulation measurements a liquid equivalent or is that snow depth? I'm guessing it's L.E. because it certainly wouldn't take much to make one one hundredth of an inch in depth.

I'm not sure exactly what page you are looking at, but we precip is reported in liquid equivalent for our 6 hourly synoptic reports. We do also report 6 hour snowfall.

bclark
10-16-2007, 10:38 AM
So the total for this past storm(which has finally cleared today) and also the month of October is now 4.4 inches with the 0.1" that I measured at the 7 a.m. synoptic.

No more will be added to that in at least the next 5-7 days. Possibly some record breaking highs by the end of the week :(

Patrad Fischroy
10-16-2007, 10:41 AM
So with ~2" in and 14 days to go, I am left hoping for an average of just under 3" per day. Oh well, there goes my La Nina theory:(

Steve M
10-16-2007, 11:15 AM
So with ~2" in and 14 days to go, I am left hoping for an average of just under 3" per day. Oh well, there goes my La Nina theory:(
One storm could easily dump 13.8":D

Charlie
10-16-2007, 07:10 PM
So the total for this past storm(which has finally cleared today) and also the month of October is now 4.4 inches with the 0.1" that I measured at the 7 a.m. synoptic.

No more will be added to that in at least the next 5-7 days. Possibly some record breaking highs by the end of the week :(


Brian you see that i picked 13.9 " of snow so there for you need to make sure i win or when you come to see me ...... well lets just say Rosie will have to sit on your lap the hole time ,and she is not the small puppy in the picture she is 85 lb now .:D :D :D

Steve M
10-28-2007, 03:40 PM
Oh...the weather outside is frightful, but the fire is sooo delightful....and since we got no place to go...let it SNOW, let it SNOW, let it SNOW!!!:D

Brad
10-28-2007, 04:16 PM
Status check? How much have we had for the month - and who is "winner" as of this point?

Bill O
10-28-2007, 04:25 PM
Status check? How much have we had for the month - and who is "winner" as of this point?

Right, like you don't know.

You should be holding your breath the next few days if this northwest flow continues.

Brad
10-28-2007, 04:37 PM
Right, like you don't know.

You should be holding your breath the next few days if this northwest flow continues.
I am not a weather guy. The last I heard was a small amount which put you in the lead.

Charlie
10-28-2007, 06:09 PM
Well, Midnight has come and gone, and the pool is now closed. We'll leave this thread open to talk about snow. I'll revise my origional post with this list as well...

Best of luck and bring on the snow!

Bill= 2.1
Brad = 6.0
PatriciaS = 9.6
JimS = 10.2
KD Talbot = 11.0
bosco41 = 11.3
Rich = 12.3
hawk = 13.9
BClark = 14.8
kaseri = 16.3
FisherCat = 17.3
WSR88D = 18.2
MikeD = 21.6
Cor2277 = 22.77
Treant985 = 24.8
Tim&Val = 29.5
Patrad Fischroy = 40.0
Gamway = 44.4



i thought i'd bring this to the end of this thread so we don't have to go back and look for it

Bill O
10-28-2007, 06:39 PM
4.4" as of this morning with a few hours of snow this afternoon. I'm guessing Brad is still in the lead.

Charlie
10-28-2007, 06:56 PM
i hope they get over 8 " more then i will be happy:D

4.4" up to today

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/2007/10.pdf

Bill O
10-28-2007, 08:37 PM
Another .2" this afternoon brining the total to 4.6".

Brad
10-28-2007, 08:38 PM
Another .2" this afternoon brining the total to 4.6".
One storm can send me over the top.

Steve M
10-28-2007, 08:49 PM
One storm can send me over the top.
I don't think a storm is in the forecast before the end of the month.

Patrad Fischroy
10-29-2007, 09:37 AM
Not even a small squall of say 35" or so?? I am so disappointed.

Steve M
10-29-2007, 11:10 AM
The F-6 report today shows the total at 4.9". It is looking really good for Brad. Unless the snow showers that are in the forecast produce 3" or more he's in good shape.

Brad
10-29-2007, 11:22 AM
It sure is hard to type with my feet, hands, and fingers crossed.

stearnzie
10-29-2007, 08:53 PM
Hmmmmm...hazzarding a guess sounds like fun:

11.7 inches.

I know that Jim's picking the prize, but if I can offer a suggestion...a nice 8x10 of BC striking a pose during the "Thriller" dance routine would be stellar...if you decide on this as a prize, you'll find women of all ages submitting guesses...then, the anticipation would become too much, and before you know it, droves of them will begin scaling the mountain...as more and more become fatigued and falter in their progress, those who could continue on would build ladders out of the lesser women and only those who summited would be worthy of BC's consideration...and his 8x10.

How's that for a tangent? I can't take the credit though and I'll humbly cite JC.:D

...yeah ...11.7 is my guess...

Brad
10-29-2007, 09:26 PM
Hmmmmm...hazzarding a guess sounds like fun:

11.7 inches.

I know that Jim's picking the prize, but if I can offer a suggestion...a nice 8x10 of BC striking a pose during the "Thriller" dance routine would be stellar...if you decide on this as a prize, you'll find women of all ages submitting guesses...then, the anticipation would become too much, and before you know it, droves of them will begin scaling the mountain...as more and more become fatigued and falter in their progress, those who could continue on would build ladders out of the lesser women and only those who summited would be worthy of BC's consideration...and his 8x10.

How's that for a tangent? I can't take the credit though and I'll humbly cite JC.:D

...yeah ...11.7 is my guess...
Good try - but, it is still too late to get into the October Guessin Event.

stearnzie
10-30-2007, 06:28 AM
Good try - but, it is still too late to get into the October Guessin Event.

Whoops...that's what I get for getting on the forums late at night...what was the actual number?

Steve M
10-30-2007, 09:08 AM
Whoops...that's what I get for getting on the forums late at night...what was the actual number?
The actual number as of this morning is 5.0"

Brad
10-31-2007, 06:13 AM
We are now 5.6 through yesterday.

Steve M
10-31-2007, 09:21 AM
We are now 5.6 through yesterday.
And the winner is...

JimS
11-01-2007, 06:56 AM
Monthly total ends at 5.6"!!! MEAGER!

The winner is BRAD! Congrats on your supreme long range forecasting ability!

Brad, Please PM me you address and I'll work on getting you out a print!

Thanks to all who played...it was fun rooting for winter!

To check how your results matched up, here's the other guesses...
http://www.mountwashington.org/forums/showpost.php?p=9595&postcount=37

Steve M
11-01-2007, 09:14 AM
Brad is the MAN! Congrats on your win!

Can we play again???:D

Brad
11-01-2007, 02:15 PM
I am pleased and honored - and recognize that it was a pure guess.

Today i also have a "published" photo at Ray's Weather site.

http://www.raysweather.com/Photo+Of+The+Day

Steve M
11-01-2007, 06:44 PM
I am pleased and honored - and recognize that it was a pure guess.

Today i also have a "published" photo at Ray's Weather site.

http://www.raysweather.com/Photo+Of+The+Day
That is an awesome shot. Glad to see others though so as well.

Brad
11-01-2007, 07:05 PM
Ray's Weather web site is a local institution. Everyone in the area checks it every day.

Charlie
11-01-2007, 07:49 PM
Congrats on your win brad ;) ;)

Brad
11-01-2007, 08:30 PM
Congrats on your win brad ;) ;)
Thank you. But, a big thanks goes to Jim for hosting this month's contest.

Charlie
11-01-2007, 08:54 PM
Thank you. But, a big thanks goes to Jim for hosting this month's contest.

yes thank you jim

Bill O
11-02-2007, 06:29 AM
This sounds like a fund game. Is it too late for my guess?

I'm going with 37.865"

:D

Steve M
11-02-2007, 09:37 AM
This sounds like a fund game. Is it too late for my guess?

I'm going with 37.865"

:D
Sorry Bill, but you'll just have to wait this one out! Maybe next time.:rolleyes:

JimS
11-02-2007, 01:15 PM
This sounds like a fund game. Is it too late for my guess?

I'm going with 37.865"

:D


LOL!!! :)

I get jokes!

JimS
11-02-2007, 01:15 PM
Thank you. But, a big thanks goes to Jim for hosting this month's contest.

You are very welcome! It was fun!