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treant985
11-29-2007, 03:18 PM
Has it really been 10 days since someone posted to this forum? Just to break the monotony, I'll suggest we start throwing out speculations (aka, wild guesses) for what the snowfall total in December will be.

I'll say 47.6", which is what excel tells me is the average snowfall per day in december since 1948, times 31.

EricJ
11-29-2007, 07:55 PM
I'll give it an educated guess, let's see if I average all the recorded snowfall from the past days of december, divide that by ,,,,,,,,,factor in global warming,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,is it an el Nina year?,,,,,,,,,,,,start the month off with an arctic blast,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I get,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,43.2 inches.

Brad
11-29-2007, 09:29 PM
What is the guessing deadline?

Steve M
11-29-2007, 09:52 PM
I'll give it an educated guess, let's see if I average all the recorded snowfall from the past days of december, divide that by ,,,,,,,,,factor in global warming,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,is it an el Nina year?,,,,,,,,,,,,start the month off with an arctic blast,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I get,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,43.2 inches.
I think you need to give Dr. Gray a call and ask him for help.:p

I have a real good feeling about 32" so I'll go with that.

Mike D
11-29-2007, 10:29 PM
I'll say 45"

fifteendays
11-29-2007, 10:58 PM
I'm thinking positive... A few big storms. I'll go with an even five feet. That would come out as 60" using my advanced math skills.

Scot
MWO (non-meteorologist) Staff

spyboy
11-30-2007, 12:22 AM
I'll say 56.2"

Patrad Fischroy
11-30-2007, 08:43 AM
Yeah well La Nina didn't pan out for me too well this past October, but I will still guess on the high side with an eyeball level of 71".

KD Talbot
11-30-2007, 04:12 PM
This should make things interesting. I'm going with 77" for the month.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
231 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007
. . .
SUNDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING FOR
US. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT 2 TO 3 DAYS OUT...BUT THE SYSTEM
DEFINITELY LOOK LIKE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT FOR THE WHOLE
REGION. AT 00Z MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON WITH AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY 12Z MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE...WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING NEAR LONG ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 500MB WAVE CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM SHOULD REALLY START TO SLOW DOWN AND WRAP UP. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS AN ALL SNOW SYSTEM...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. AT 18Z MONDAY THE SECONDARY LOW WILL HAVE FULLY DEVELOPED NEAR CAPE COD...WITH THE 500MB LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AT 00Z TUESDAY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY 06Z TUESDAY AS SNOW BEGINS TO END ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT OVER THE COURSE OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE A BIT PREMATURE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE 6 TO 10 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AGAIN...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON AMOUNTS.

Awesome!
KDT

Bill O
11-30-2007, 04:53 PM
I'll take 30".

Brad
12-01-2007, 09:23 AM
Could use a list of what we have for numbers. - I will go with 57 inches

Steve M
12-01-2007, 09:48 PM
Boy oh boy, you guys and your high numbers, don't you know that snowfall amounts won't be high until 2008!;)

Brad
12-01-2007, 10:36 PM
Went to Akron for dinner and then headed out to try to stay south of the storm heading back to NC. Just got gas in Charleston, WV and all is dry here. But the storm is headed for NH and northern NE for sure. This will be fun to watch.

It is now 6 degrees at the cabin in Maine - looking to warm up tomorrow and then start to snow. What are the forecasts like you folks are seeing.

Rich
12-02-2007, 08:15 AM
It is now 6 degrees at the cabin in Maine - looking to warm up tomorrow and then start to snow. What are the forecasts like you folks are seeing.

Hey Brad...here in CT we're to expect snow starting later this afternoon, accumulating to a slush on the coast and 1-3" inland before changing to ice and then rain after midnight.

Why can't we just have a good old fashion snow storm with just SNOW!!??!!

MY guess for December snowfall is...38".

Rich
12-02-2007, 08:27 AM
treant985 47.6

EricJ 43.2

WSR88D 32

MikeD 45

fifteendays 60

spyboy 56.2

Patrad Fischroy 71

KD Talbot 77

Bill O 30

Brad 57

Rich 38

Bill O
12-02-2007, 09:38 AM
December is the snowiest month of the year for MWO with a mean of 55" and a record of 103.7" in 1968.

Something I don't have is the standard deviation which I am guessing is quite large and equally as meaningful as the mean.

Charlie
12-02-2007, 11:45 AM
i say it will be 50.3"

freehill
12-02-2007, 11:48 AM
I gonna Guess a meer 72" of Snow 2 huge storms and many 2-4 inch days in the month of Dec. Happy Holidays!
R

h2oeco
12-02-2007, 05:51 PM
I'll guess 67" for December....

Unfortunately, little or snow down here on the coast of NJ for me - just a 1/2" or so last night...

However, we're supposed to get sustained 30mph winds tomorrow, with 50+ in the gusts - should be fun (I live on a barrier island, with the ocean about 300 yards to the east, and a bay about 100 yards to the west)...

Looking around up near MWO, there are wsw all over for the next couple of days... :-)

Ed

Brad
12-02-2007, 07:13 PM
Here is the list in order:

30.0 Bill O
32.0 WSR88D
38.0 Rich
43.2 EricJ
45.0 MikeD
47.6 treant985
50.3 Charlie
56.2 spyboy
57.0 Brad
60.0 fifteendays
67.0 h20eco
71.0 Patrad Fischroy
72.0 freehill
77.0 KD Talbot

Let's have the same deadline as last time - midnight on December 4th.

Charlie
12-02-2007, 08:51 PM
sounds good

PatriciaS
12-02-2007, 09:27 PM
My guess is 61.2

Bring on the snow!!! :)

Patti

Steve M
12-08-2007, 09:00 AM
We are up to 18+ inches so far and still quite a bit of month left.

Charlie
12-08-2007, 09:04 AM
how do they say it

let it snow let it snow let it snow but not more then 50.3" :D

Bretton Woods Brat
12-09-2007, 07:32 AM
52.0 please.... :p

maineusa69
12-09-2007, 11:25 AM
63.5 Please v:)

Bill O
12-12-2007, 07:13 AM
I'm happily predicting my guess will be surpassed in the next few days.

Bill O
12-15-2007, 07:40 AM
I'm officially out and Steve is the current leader.

Steve M
12-15-2007, 08:47 AM
I'm officially out and Steve is the current leader.
Not for long :) :) :) :) :)

Brad
12-15-2007, 10:23 AM
Not for long :) :) :) :) :)
But we are running out of time.

Bill O
12-20-2007, 02:50 PM
Tack on another 5.5" so far today and we are over 50" for the month.

That's above normal and everything else will help eat into November's deficit.

spyboy
12-20-2007, 03:29 PM
It has to slow down, so I can get my 56.2" guess correct!

K

Doyle
12-20-2007, 03:35 PM
What is causing this low to hang around the NH coast today?

Charlie
12-20-2007, 05:57 PM
Tack on another 5.5" so far today and we are over 50" for the month.

That's above normal and everything else will help eat into November's deficit.


i see 44.2" ????

Brad
12-20-2007, 06:05 PM
i see 44.2" ????
The F6 says 44.2 and we are running out of time.

Steve M
12-20-2007, 06:08 PM
The F6 says 44.2 and we are running out of time.
You keep saying we are running out of time. What does that mean???

Brad
12-20-2007, 06:13 PM
You keep saying we are running out of time. What does that mean???
December will be over in 11 days. We NEED to get to 57 inches.

Bill O
12-20-2007, 06:17 PM
i see 44.2" ????

You're right, it's 44.2" as of last night (I thought it was 45.2"). Either way, they received 5.5" through noon with more after that, we will be at or over 50" by the end of the day.

Running out of time? Well, the month will eventually end, but it's only the 20th. Still another 30% of the month left.

Charlie
12-20-2007, 06:18 PM
Here is the list in order:

30.0 Bill O
32.0 WSR88D
38.0 Rich
43.2 EricJ
45.0 MikeD
47.6 treant985
50.3 Charlie
56.2 spyboy
57.0 Brad
60.0 fifteendays
67.0 h20eco
71.0 Patrad Fischroy
72.0 freehill
77.0 KD Talbot

Let's have the same deadline as last time - midnight on December 4th.


bump this down so we can see it

Charlie
12-20-2007, 06:19 PM
it can stop now

Bill O
12-20-2007, 06:30 PM
What is causing this low to hang around the NH coast today?

You're in a high over low blocking pattern. Meaning there's a high pressure to the north keeping that low from kicking out.

Bill O
12-20-2007, 06:33 PM
December will be over in 11 days. We NEED to get to 57 inches.

Unless this weather pattern breaks down MWO should get at least another 7" this month.

Steve M
12-20-2007, 10:33 PM
It looks like that low around Christmas is going to be a southern event.

Brad
12-21-2007, 04:54 AM
The WGME weather page says the mountains might get some snow from it.

www.wgme.com/Weather/index.shtml

How about some sun....
The sun is back both today and tomorrow!. Temps will warm into the 30s for the first half of the weekend. Our next storm system will pass west of the area on Sunday. This will put us on the mild side of the storm. The second half of the weekend will showcase rain developing along with gusty winds. This should end with some light snow in the mountains. Sunny/quiet weather is expected through the holiday!

Snow totals from Wednesday night through Thursday

Portland 6"
Westbrook 7"
Falmouth 6"
Cumberland Center 6"
Poland 5"
Lewiston 5"
Brunswick 6"
Saco 7"
Kennebunk 5"
York 7"
Sanford 7"
Dover NH 7"
N. Sebago 6"
Raymond 6"
Westport Island 4"
Port Clyde 4"
N.Conway 6"
S.Paris 3"
Leeds 5"
Augusta 4"
Gorham NH 5"
Andover 9"
Eustis 4"
Sugarloaf 8"
Sunday River 7"

C6Ron
12-21-2007, 06:08 AM
I live in southern NH and from looking at what we have for a total snow fall, believe the summit must have received at least 60" or better. I am looking at an area in my side yard, where I shovel for the propane delivery person. This area does not receive any snow from anywhere but up above, from the Big Guy himself! I see at least 22" and this really can not even come close to Mt Washington's Summit, that seems to have gotten much more snow then we have for the year so far.

I have been watching the Summit since the beginning of the year and from the looks of all the storms, large and small, it would appear that the summit must have received at least that 5' mark, or better! This is only my opinion and I am not educated in this area, just very interested in the summit and north country in general!!! :eek: :confused:

Brad
12-21-2007, 06:16 AM
WMUR in Manchester, NH posted a summary of highest snowfall Decembers. We are at #6 right now.

http://images32.fotki.com/v1065/photos/1/1002902/4071997/snow1_640x480-vi.jpg

Bill O
12-21-2007, 07:31 AM
I live in southern NH and from looking at what we have for a total snow fall, believe the summit must have received at least 60" or better. I am looking at an area in my side yard, where I shovel for the propane delivery person. This area does not receive any snow from anywhere but up above, from the Big Guy himself! I see at least 22" and this really can not even come close to Mt Washington's Summit, that seems to have gotten much more snow then we have for the year so far.

I have been watching the Summit since the beginning of the year and from the looks of all the storms, large and small, it would appear that the summit must have received at least that 5' mark, or better! This is only my opinion and I am not educated in this area, just very interested in the summit and north country in general!!! :eek: :confused:

There's no need to guess. There is an army of observers and interns checking snowfall every six hours and updating the website with snow totals every morning.

Brad
12-21-2007, 08:01 AM
I live in southern NH and from looking at what we have for a total snow fall, believe the summit must have received at least 60" or better. I am looking at an area in my side yard, where I shovel for the propane delivery person. This area does not receive any snow from anywhere but up above, from the Big Guy himself! I see at least 22" and this really can not even come close to Mt Washington's Summit, that seems to have gotten much more snow then we have for the year so far.

I have been watching the Summit since the beginning of the year and from the looks of all the storms, large and small, it would appear that the summit must have received at least that 5' mark, or better! This is only my opinion and I am not educated in this area, just very interested in the summit and north country in general!!! :eek: :confused:
The daily snowfall totals are posted each day in the "F6 report" which can be found at http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/

bclark
12-21-2007, 08:08 AM
There's no need to guess. There is an army of observers and interns checking snowfall every six hours and updating the website with snow totals every morning.


We sure are...and as of this morning, we are at 51.0" of snowfall for the month of December with 10 days left to go. The 30 year average for the December is 50.0", so we have officially exceeded our average snowfall for the month for the first time this year! Now we can start making up the 17.0" deficit we are running for the year.

A couple other interesting facts about the summit weather so far this month: we have received at least a trace of snowfall every day(only two of those days were a trace, the rest were at least 0.1) and the average daily temperature has been below the 30 year average every day except the last 2.

We also have not gone above freezing since Nov. 27th(we reached 35 that day). That's a streak of 24 days counting today. Unfortunately, that streak, as well as our streak of snow storms, is likely to end this weekend with a warm storm cutting through the Great Lakes. Oh well, a December with on warm storm is not a bad December at all in my book!

Brad
12-21-2007, 08:24 AM
The ski areas must be cranked up and happy for the first time in many years.

bclark
12-21-2007, 09:19 AM
The ski areas must be cranked up and happy for the first time in many years.


I'm sure they are after the December they had last year. Most ski areas in New England have already been able to build up enough of a base to last through a January thaw.

Attitash is going to be near 100% open by the weekend. Pretty amazing considering it's only December 21. I was back home in State College, PA for "Christmas" on my week off, but I decided to leave at 4 a.m. on Tuesday to get some turns in at Attitash before heading up the mountain the next morning. DEFINITELY worth it....it was some of the best snow I have ever skied anywhere.

It really is a shame it's going to rain this weekend. :(

spyboy
12-26-2007, 09:09 PM
So where do we stand on snow totals so far for December?

Steve M
12-26-2007, 09:47 PM
So where do we stand on snow totals so far for December?
Currently the F6 report shows 51.8" and steady.:)

Charlie
12-27-2007, 11:39 AM
Here is the list in order:

30.0 Bill O
32.0 WSR88D
38.0 Rich
43.2 EricJ
45.0 MikeD
47.6 treant985
50.3 Charlie
56.2 spyboy
57.0 Brad
60.0 fifteendays
67.0 h20eco
71.0 Patrad Fischroy
72.0 freehill
77.0 KD Talbot

Let's have the same deadline as last time - midnight on December 4th.


well I'm over but still the closest

spyboy
12-27-2007, 01:21 PM
I'm next... how are we calculating? Do you have to be UNDER or closest +/- to the actual number :)

Kirk

Charlie
12-27-2007, 01:38 PM
I'm next... how are we calculating? Do you have to be UNDER or closest +/- to the actual number :)

Kirk

i think it was just for fun to see if some one can hit it on the nose

Steve M
12-27-2007, 07:19 PM
This is not a contest with a prize. It's just to keep ourselves from being bored!:)

Brad
12-27-2007, 07:28 PM
This is not a contest with a prize. It's just to keep ourselves from being bored!:)
The rules to date have been closest - does not matter if you are over - just closest - you MUST have fun - which we do.

spyboy
12-27-2007, 08:16 PM
I know it's for fun, but I'm competitive :) Yeah, how can one be competitive when it's just a guessing game? Ok, maybe some of you researched previous snowfalls, I just made up my number (unless I have the secret meteorological gene in my DNA)

Kirk

Brad
12-27-2007, 08:32 PM
I know it's for fun, but I'm competitive :) Yeah, how can one be competitive when it's just a guessing game? Ok, maybe some of you researched previous snowfalls, I just made up my number (unless I have the secret meteorological gene in my DNA)

Kirk
I have made up my number because I have no knowledge to fall back on. I can tell you if it is snowing or raining. But, look beyond a few minutes and I am lost. But, I have won 2 of these contests. No skill required.

Steve M
12-27-2007, 10:40 PM
I have made up my number because I have no knowledge to fall back on. I can tell you if it is snowing or raining. But, look beyond a few minutes and I am lost. But, I have won 2 of these contests. No skill required.
I am studying to be a meteorologist and I am just guessing also. You can have all the info available to you and still be way off. There is no harnessing nature. It's gonna do what it's gonna do. Especially when dealing with the long term.:)

Brad
12-28-2007, 09:17 AM
Here is the list in order:

30.0 Bill O
32.0 WSR88D
38.0 Rich
43.2 EricJ
45.0 MikeD
47.6 treant985
50.3 Charlie
56.2 spyboy
57.0 Brad
60.0 fifteendays
67.0 h20eco
71.0 Patrad Fischroy
72.0 freehill
77.0 KD Talbot

Let's have the same deadline as last time - midnight on December 4th.
We are at 55.7 inches right now. SpyBoy is in the lead. Will it hold? Stay tuned for the December Saga.

Steve M
12-28-2007, 10:05 AM
We are at 55.7 inches right now. SpyBoy is in the lead. Will it hold? Stay tuned for the December Saga.
You forgot your favorite line..."and we are running out of time.":D

Brad
12-28-2007, 10:52 AM
You forgot your favorite line..."and we are running out of time.":D
Wow - you are right - we are running out of time.

Do we start up a January contest?

Steve M
12-28-2007, 12:47 PM
Wow - you are right - we are running out of time.

Do we start up a January contest?
I'm looking forward to it!:)

Brad
12-29-2007, 06:23 AM
We are at 55.7 inches right now. SpyBoy is in the lead. Will it hold? Stay tuned for the December Saga.
Zero snow for yesterday. SpyBoy is still the leader.

Steve M
12-29-2007, 10:32 AM
Zero snow for yesterday. SpyBoy is still the leader.
Yup, and with less than three days left. It is very possible for you to win this one too.

Brad
12-29-2007, 11:16 AM
Yup, and with less than three days left. It is very possible for you to win this one too.
Being this close feels good. Maybe I should buy a lottery ticket today.

Steve M
12-30-2007, 11:44 AM
Being this close feels good. Maybe I should buy a lottery ticket today.
We are at 57.5" as of this morning with today and tomorrow to go. Will Brad hold the victory or will he pass the crown to Fifteendays? Stay tuned as only time will tell in this tight race.

Charlie
12-30-2007, 12:37 PM
so close but it still may snow :eek: :eek:

we are pulling for you brad
watch he hits it on the nose :D

Brad
12-30-2007, 12:54 PM
I don't think I have a chance - but it will be close. It looks like FifteenDays will get the title this month. I am sure he can not claim his number was a guess. He is too close to the real data.

Patrad Fischroy
12-30-2007, 03:29 PM
With 2 days left and 13.5 inches to go, I guess my chances are pretty poor. It is hard to see the future weather from so far away. Perhaps next month???

Bill O
12-30-2007, 04:22 PM
With 2 days left and 13.5 inches to go, I guess my chances are pretty poor. It is hard to see the future weather from so far away. Perhaps next month???

6" is certainly possible with the next storm. You never know.

Brad
12-31-2007, 06:32 AM
57.6 ins with one day to go. Time is running out - but, it is snowing like blazes here in Maine. I have not been out to see what we got last night. I thought the deck was mainly clear last night and now it looks like about 10 inches (but it is still dark out). Time to walk the dog (with a ruler). :cool: Looking at the radar it will continue to snow for a while.

Steve M
12-31-2007, 07:23 AM
57.6 ins with one day to go. Time is running out - but, it is snowing like blazes here in Maine. I have not been out to see what we got last night. I thought the deck was mainly clear last night and now it looks like about 10 inches (but it is still dark out). Time to walk the dog (with a ruler). :cool: Looking at the radar it will continue to snow for a while.
17 hrs remaining in the month and year...time is certainly running out.

Brad
12-31-2007, 09:01 AM
This is what we got last night - 6 inches.

http://images31.fotki.com/v1084/photos/8/8235/5637847/IMG_0203agenerator-vi.jpg

Bill O
12-31-2007, 03:12 PM
Barring any big error corrections, the summit is up to 60.4".

Brad, time has certainly run out for you.

Charlie
12-31-2007, 03:22 PM
it says it is at 57.6"

treant985
12-31-2007, 06:06 PM
Brad, you need to get back to NC this week. 8-12 inches for the NC/TN mountains, with temps down to zero tues night/wed morning.

Bill O
12-31-2007, 07:29 PM
it says it is at 57.6"

I know magic, and the total is now 61.1".

Brad
12-31-2007, 10:14 PM
I know magic, and the total is now 61.1".
If that sticks (pun intended), then FifteenDays gets top prize.

Brad
01-01-2008, 07:44 AM
My guess is 61.2

Bring on the snow!!! :)

Patti
For some reason your guess never made the list. It was at the top of page 3. But, you made it on the 2nd of the month - and got the right number - exactly. So, FifteenDays does NOT win. PatriciaS WINS!!!!!

PatriciaS
01-01-2008, 09:29 AM
Thanks Brad!!

I can not believe that I guessed it exactly! WOW! That's cool!

I hope you all have a safe, healthy, and Happy New Year!

Patti

Charlie
01-01-2008, 09:56 AM
congratulation on a very good guess

Brad
01-01-2008, 04:44 PM
congratulation on a very good guess
"A very good" guess? She was perfect- right on the nose. Don't knock her because Patti and I are heading over together to get our lottery tickets.

Charlie
01-01-2008, 07:47 PM
get me a ticket and if my ticket wins i will split it into 3rds you get 1/3 i get 1/3 and MWO gets 1/3 :D

Steve M
01-01-2008, 10:49 PM
get me a ticket and if my ticket wins i will split it into 3rds you get 1/3 i get 1/3 and MWO gets 1/3 :D
Don't forget this poor boy from Florida...

Congrats PatriciaS on a spectacular job!:D