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View Full Version : East coast blizzard 12/15-16??



bclark
12-11-2007, 12:09 PM
Disclaimer: What I am posting about at this point is 5 or 6 days away. Things are sure to change over that time period, so don't take this as a 100% sure thing.

Now that that is out of the way, I can share my excitement about what's in the models for the weekend. I usually don't like to buy into the hype for storms more than 3 or 4 days out, but this one is a little different in my eyes. First all, all the major long range models, at this point, agree that there is going to be a significant coastal storm this weekend for the east coast. The fact that so many models are agreeing the way that they are this far in advance tells me that something significant is going to happen, the particulars will be worked out in the coming days.



Here was the 06Z run of the GFS, 132 hours out(Sunday at 1 p.m. EST), that I looked at this morning:
http://www.bmclark.org/MWOforums/gfs_06Z_132h.gif




Here is the 12Z run of the GFS, 126 hours out(Sunday at 1 p.m. EST):
http://www.bmclark.org/MWOforums/gfs_12Z_126h.gif


I know that to some of you, those graphics mean almost nothing to you. So, I will try to give meaning to all the graphics I am putting in. What you want to look at in these first two graphics of the GFS model is the low pressure center(denoted by an "L") off the east coast. All the green on the graphics denote the amount of precipitation that would fall in the 6 hours previous to that hour. Anywhere you see blue dashed lines is where snow will probably fall, red dashed lines could be rain.




Here is the 00Z run of the EMCWF(Euro), 144 hours out(Sunday at 1 p.m. EST):
http://www.bmclark.org/MWOforums/emcwf_0Z_144h.gif

Now for this model, commonly known as the Euro or European, focus on the upper right panel. Here once again you can see the low deepening off the coast.




Here is the 00Z run of the UKMET, 144 hours out(Sunday at 1 p.m. EST):
http://www.bmclark.org/MWOforums/ukmet_0Z_144h.gif

Here, take a look at the right panel. You can see the low off the coast. This one shows the high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes very well. I will talk about its significance in a minute.




And lastly the CMC, 144 hours out(Sunday at 1 p.m. EST):
http://www.bmclark.org/MWOforums/cmc_00Z_144h.gif

Look at the two right panels for this model. The low is shown off the coast in the top right. The bottom right shows 12 hour precip.



As I already mentioned, I am impressed with how much these models are agreeing. When I started writing this, the 12Z runs of the UKMET, EMCWF, and CMC were not finished yet.

One of the most notable things about this storm in relation to Mt. Washington, is the rather strong high pressure that will be located to the north of the low as it bombs out off the east coast. The high is forecasted to be a 1024 millibar high, with the low bottoming out around 980 millibar. This is a very significant pressure gradient over a relatively short distance, and it is these sort of situations where the summit receives its highest wind gusts. If things pan out as the models have them now, we are certainly talking sustained winds well over 100 mph. Of course that will all depend on how strong the high and the low get.

Also if things pan out as forecasted by the models now, there will portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England that will get several feet of snow with blizzard conditions, especially on the back end.

Once again, I don't mean to hype things up too much. But it certainly will be interesting to keep an eye out on this one over the next few days!

EricJ
12-11-2007, 03:06 PM
Gee, Couldn't you give us more data to go on?
Maybe a few more diagrams?
How about some of this (ZCZC PWMMTRMWN TTAA00 KGYX 111852 METAR KMWN 111852Z 27042KT 100SM FEW/// FEW080 SCT100 OVC180 M09/M12 RMK TPS LWR FEW050 SUN DMLY VSBL NNNN) For every hour from now till next Tuesday? LOL

There goes my December snow total guess. Thanks for the heads up.



.

Bill O
12-11-2007, 03:47 PM
There goes my December snow total guess. Thanks for the heads up.


I'll take it. Nor'easters punish the summit of MWN. Meaning, the summit doesn't get much snow during these types of storms. But everyone else does.

donnellyvj
12-11-2007, 05:38 PM
That info is very cool. Thanks for the explanation because you were right. I needed a little help. I hope it pans out. Now im going back to go overthat all one more time.:D

h2oeco
12-11-2007, 06:06 PM
Thanks for the info Brian.

Ed

PatriciaS
12-11-2007, 08:09 PM
Blizzard.....several feet of snow....mid-atlantic????
Bring it on!!!!

:D

Steve M
12-11-2007, 10:55 PM
Send a little my way would ya???

BillPatt
12-11-2007, 11:52 PM
Thanks for the info, Brian. I have been hitting the GFS models every six hrs, and they are trending more and more east with the low, meaning more snow chance and less rain chance for the Central NJ area, where I live. Still, I would be happy with a foot of snow.

I hear that the GFS is too fast, and the Euro (EMCWF) is the model of choice....but who knows this far out. They are still trying to figure if we have to wear hockey skates to work on Thu.

One question, though: Why do these storms 'bomb'? What is the mechanism that sucks 5% of the air out of all those cubic miles of atmosphere? I have never seen a good explanation.

Bill

Brad
12-12-2007, 05:34 AM
Hmmm, my wife is driving right now from Ohio to maine trying to get there by noon on Thursday. It looks like she will skirt south of most of it today and get in before things crank up on Thursday. At least that has been our plan. she said it was "a bit messy" driving yesterday. Hopefully she is settled in with a good fire by the time Brian's storm arrives.

Bill O
12-12-2007, 06:52 AM
One question, though: Why do these storms 'bomb'? What is the mechanism that sucks 5% of the air out of all those cubic miles of atmosphere? I have never seen a good explanation.

Bill

Jet stream dynamics and baroclonicity. Or more simply, variations in temperature.

This might help:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone

Forget about this weekend...My area is in for a moderate snowstorm on Thursday.

Brad
12-12-2007, 09:20 AM
How far south does "mid-atlantic" go for this storm according to the models?

BillPatt
12-12-2007, 04:26 PM
Yeah, I know - insanely far out. But it shows another Nor'easter.

Just how much will this winter resemble the 17 ice-storm one of 1993-94?

Bill

Brad
12-12-2007, 10:02 PM
Any more word on what Sunday looks like and for whom?

BillPatt
12-12-2007, 10:30 PM
I've been following the Meteo-Madness blog at Accuweather.com. He is saying 12-18 inches in Maine (where it seems you are from)

I will be bumming, since I am in Central NJ, where it seems we're only getting the 3-6 range. If luck holds, then the center will be further east, and we could get slammed.

spyboy
12-13-2007, 03:01 PM
I guess today is the "pre-blizzard"

Almost 3 inches on the ground since 1pm when it started here in Manchester, NH and it's still coming down fast (tiny flakes too)

http://www.spyboy.com/20071213.jpg

Maam
12-13-2007, 04:30 PM
As a resident of the East Coast, I am not looking forward to getting pasted. But it is nice that someone, even off duty, might be looking out for us and warning us so we can plan to buy lots of bread and milk! If you can play with the models, send more to North Conway please. Well done W1, take a break....

Brad
12-14-2007, 05:09 AM
The F6 report says 2.3 inches of snow on 12/13 for the summit.

Steve M
12-14-2007, 12:55 PM
Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
306 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND...

.LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AS IT DEEPENS. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRACKING INTO THE MARITIMES
MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE...THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO SLEET FOR A TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION MAY RECEIVE
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS STORM.

HOWEVER...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SLEET AND PERHAPS EVEN RAIN MAY KEEP ACCUMULATION
TOTALS LOWER IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING...AND COULD GUST IN EXCESS OF 35
MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING.

IF YOU TRAVEL PLANS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND...YOU WILL WANT TO KEEP
ABREAST OF THE STORM. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND REMAIN POOR INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

MEZ007>009-012>014-NHZ001>009-142115-
/O.NEW.KGYX.WS.A.0011.071216T1200Z-071217T1200Z/
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN COOS-
SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-
SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...BYRON...MIDDLE DAM...
ROXBURY...SOUTH ARM...UPTON...WILSONS MILLS...AVON...
CARRABASSETT VALLEY...COBURN GORE...DALLAS...DAVIS...EUSTIS...
KINGFIELD...BINGHAM...RUMFORD...NORWAY...SOUTH PARIS...MEXICO...
FRYEBURG...OXFORD...FARMINGTON...WILTON...SKOWHEGA N...
PITTSFIELD...MADISON...FAIRFIELD...LITTLETON...NOR TH CONWAY...
CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO. ..CLAREMONT...
NEWPORT...CONCORD...LACONIA...TILTON-NORTHFIELD...MEREDITH
306 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

LOOK FOR SNOW TO DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE
SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW EXISTS.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO
SO SAFELY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...
OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRAY FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

IF YOU TRAVEL PLANS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND...YOU WILL WANT TO KEEP
ABREAST OF THE STORM. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND REMAIN POOR INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

$$

It sounds like the inland locations will be getting the bulk of the accumulation of this storm. Look out summit!:D

Brad
12-14-2007, 04:13 PM
Steve, how much will you be getting? Maybe we should go north early to catch this one?

Bill O
12-16-2007, 01:17 PM
4.9" on the summit so far. 4.8" today and 0.1" yesterday.

Mike D
12-16-2007, 02:24 PM
About 6 to 8" outside my door here in Intervale. That's on top of what we already had.

Bill O
12-16-2007, 03:12 PM
About 6 to 8" outside my door here in Intervale. That's on top of what we already had.

How much snow do you have on the ground (total)?

And when did you move to Intervale?

Brad
12-16-2007, 03:40 PM
My son in Maine says he has a foot of new snow and it is still coming down.

Steve M
12-16-2007, 03:55 PM
My son in Maine says he has a foot of new snow and it is still coming down.
It looks like a sure thing for a white Christmas for you guys. That's great! If you all would post lots of pictures of the snow it will help me get in the Christmas spirit. :)

Mike D
12-16-2007, 06:43 PM
How much snow do you have on the ground (total)?

And when did you move to Intervale?

1 and 2... foot and years... snow and ago. Actually it's a little over a foot, but it's hard to measure since there are few places that are representative. Most spots are low because they've been shoveled or plowed clean or high because they've been shoveled or plowed in.

Mike D
12-16-2007, 06:46 PM
And when did you move to Intervale?

The problem with living in Twin Mountain is that you get storms like these all the time and nobody cares or reports on it. You just drive to work gritting your teeth trying to remember how many miles it is to the nearest inhabited building in case you go off the road.

Brad
12-17-2007, 04:25 PM
Wow - look at the recent temperature drop!

http://images32.fotki.com/v1062/photos/1/1002902/5655587/20071217_153933_conditions-vi.jpg

billysinc
12-17-2007, 04:31 PM
looks like every 6 hours the ice is too much to read the windspeed, good luck to whoever draws the short straw for de-icing.

Bill O
12-17-2007, 05:09 PM
looks like every 6 hours the ice is too much to read the windspeed, good luck to whoever draws the short straw for de-icing.

Its a shame. Last year it seemed like the pitot was working so well.

EricJ
12-17-2007, 07:05 PM
With the frequency it's been failing, it seems the heater must be failing or have an intermittant connection.

Mike D
12-18-2007, 10:38 AM
Its a shame. Last year it seemed like the pitot was working so well.

The problem with the heated skirt system was identified and fixed, so (knock on wood) the wind readings should be reliable from now on.

bclark
12-20-2007, 09:00 AM
The problem with the heated skirt system was identified and fixed, so (knock on wood) the wind readings should be reliable from now on.


That's not entirely true. The skirt heater has been working intermittently for a few weeks now. We did however discover that the heat tape wrapped around the pressure lines for the pitot was unplugged. This has helped to keep the pressure lines from freezing, which is what was causing the pitot to fail.

Steve is going to be working on the skirt heater this week. We don't believe that it is a bad heating element in the pitot skirt itself. Rather, we believe it to be a problem with the equipment that controls the temperature of the heater; perhaps a bad thermostat or a thermostat that has lost its program somehow.

Charlie
12-20-2007, 06:02 PM
did some one say bad thermostat :D i do hvac work so i can come up and fix it ;) ;) ;)

Brad
12-20-2007, 06:07 PM
Steve is going to be working on the skirt heater this week.
Ok, we need a few more words here to explain why the women on the summit need a skirt heater.