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View Full Version : Guesses on wind speed.



edog2007
03-26-2008, 09:50 AM
There is a storm coming Friday.

My guess is 120 mph wind speed.

VOTE NOW:D

JimS
03-26-2008, 02:05 PM
What is the specified time frame?

I just don't see this as a major wind event. I'll go with 71 mph on Saturday morning...

Tops for the day on Friday... 60...if that...

edog2007
03-26-2008, 02:45 PM
Deadline is 10:00 PM tonight.

JimS
03-26-2008, 06:02 PM
Deadline is 10:00 PM tonight.

I more meant when is your time frame for the event. Just friday, friday and Saturday, noon to noon?

Very different things to forecast for...

edog2007
03-26-2008, 07:05 PM
Friday 10:00AM to 3:00PM

Changing peek windspeed vote to....100 mph

Now this is it just has to reach it...not sustain it.

JimS
03-26-2008, 07:18 PM
Friday 10:00AM to 3:00PM

Got it...53mph

Or, I could bet 1mph and split it with you at 60 ;)

Bill O
03-26-2008, 08:31 PM
I'll take 75mph

Bill O
03-26-2008, 09:43 PM
http://www.met.tamu.edu/Weather_Interface/

Go to that website. Type in MWN for the station. Check the "Model Data" box and select "All Model Output."

WSP is the sustained wind speed for the summit in knots. Last weekend those numbers were around 98 (the scale only goes to 99).

I have to agree with Jim though, it doesn't look to exciting for this storm.

I'm lowering my guess to a measely category 1 hurricane at 75mph. You never know....gusts happen!

edog2007
03-26-2008, 09:44 PM
http://www.met.tamu.edu/Weather_Interface/

Go to that website. Type in MWN for the station. Check the "Model Data" box and select "All Model Output."

WSP is the sustained wind speed for the summit in knots. Last weekend those numbers were around 98 (the scale only goes to 99).

I have to agree with Jim though, it doesn't look to exciting for this storm.

I'm lowering my guess to a measely category 1 hurricane at 75mph. You never know....gusts happen!


I changed mine to 100 mph.

Knapper
03-27-2008, 03:34 AM
Am I missing something here? Hurricane force? Really? Either the models changed drastically since y'all looked, your looking at the wrong MOS numbers, or y'all are reading the wrong line of code. According to what I am seeing this morning, if we get to 50 mph, that will be amazing.

Ryan Knapp
Staff Meteorologist, KMWN

Brad
03-27-2008, 05:16 AM
Ryan,

My precise data "forecast" system called GF (Gut Feel) is a wee bit lower than these guys. I am going with 42 MPH.

Bill O
03-27-2008, 06:15 AM
Am I missing something here? Hurricane force? Really? Either the models changed drastically since y'all looked, your looking at the wrong MOS numbers, or y'all are reading the wrong line of code. According to what I am seeing this morning, if we get to 50 mph, that will be amazing.

Ryan Knapp
Staff Meteorologist, KMWN

No you're right on. But there is no downside for being wrong in this case.

JimS
03-28-2008, 11:48 AM
With 3 hours to go...the peak is an extreme 22 mph...

Bill O
03-28-2008, 02:15 PM
Its about as calm up there as you will ever see it right now.

bclark
03-28-2008, 02:26 PM
Its about as calm up there as you will ever see it right now.

I just did the 6 hourly synoptic observation and coded a "0000" for the wind. This means the 10 minute average wind speed leading up to the observation was less than 0.5 knots. In fact, it was 0.3 knots.

JimS
03-28-2008, 02:31 PM
Your lying...that doesn't happen.

Tell Ryan to stop holding the pitot downwind...

edog2007
03-28-2008, 03:22 PM
Wind is coming later than I thought.:rolleyes:

The winner is.......not me.lol

Bill O
03-28-2008, 03:44 PM
I just did the 6 hourly synoptic observation and coded a "0000" for the wind. This means the 10 minute average wind speed leading up to the observation was less than 0.5 knots. In fact, it was 0.3 knots.

How many times have you coded that before?

mtruman
03-28-2008, 05:17 PM
With 3 hours to go...the peak is an extreme 22 mph...
When I glanced at the weather home page this morning I saw the 152 (which was the wind direction) and thought holy cow - it really is blowing up there! I then noticed that the actual speed was 6.8mph (which seemed just about as unlikely). Looks like the expectations for this wind contest were a bit "overblown" :rolleyes:

JimS
03-28-2008, 05:19 PM
Wind is coming later than I thought.:rolleyes:

The winner is.......not me.lol

I appreciate your ethusiasm for the weather...you are unfortunately 'competing' against a bunch of folks who have gone to school to study this stuff...

Keep at it..

and heck...I missed It by 30mph as well...

bclark
03-28-2008, 09:06 PM
How many times have you coded that before?


Definitely a first for me Bill. I actually had to look it up in the FMH-2 manual, although I already suspected a "0000" was the correct code since that is similar to the way a calm wind is coded in METAR.

Knapper
03-28-2008, 11:51 PM
How many times have you coded that before?

Only three times for me that I can recall of the going on three years I have been here. I have had a few ones and twos but to actually get "calm" or "0" is rare in deed.

Ryan Knapp
Staff Meteorologist, KMWN

edog2007
03-29-2008, 02:52 PM
Very close to a hundred now.:D