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Bill O
11-30-2006, 01:23 PM
I'm trying to get some action going here so I decided to launch a contest to guess/predict December's low temperature. Entries will be closed after December 5th. No prizes for now, but if this goes well maybe I will sponsor some small prize for future contests.

There's absolutely no skill involved in my guess, just a guess. I will go for a low of -20F. I reserve the right to change this before voting closes.

Edit: Thanks for that info on the range of record lows, that should be helpful. Even with that data I will stick with my current guess. My theory, wrong or not, is that Mount Washington approaches or exceeds a daily record almost every month. At worst once every three months. Which brings -20F into play.

afmrintern
11-30-2006, 01:46 PM
Great Idea!

A little background to make this fair...
From the MWO Archives.

-Average Daily Temperatures in DEC range from 8F to 15F
-Record Lows Range from (-18F) at the beginning of the month to (-46F) near the end.
-Warmest Dec Temperature: 47F
-Lowest December Temp Last year was -22F

I'm going to go with a balmy -9F for reasons I do not wish to disclose!

Patrad Fischroy
11-30-2006, 04:21 PM
I assume that this is without windchill, -15F

markinbartlett
11-30-2006, 04:31 PM
November has been so warm, it HAS to get more seasonal around here! Put me down for -30.:)

gonewandering
11-30-2006, 05:15 PM
Ever hopefull I'll say -47 :cool:

AlpineHikerFan71
11-30-2006, 07:37 PM
Ever hopefull I'll say -47 :cool:

I am going to say it will be -31 for the month of December.:)

Nutmeg Weatherman
11-30-2006, 09:01 PM
-27 degrees............on Christmas Day

Charlie
11-30-2006, 09:17 PM
i will try -23 :rolleyes:

Mike D
11-30-2006, 09:23 PM
-12.5

My message was too short, needs more characters.

Wantabe
12-01-2006, 11:02 AM
I'll try -17

AlpineHikerFan71
12-01-2006, 12:35 PM
:)
I'll try -17

Wantabe, what part of maryland are you in. My wife and I just left Northern Maryland back in August to NH. Hopefully your in the western part where they get snow:)

whitemtnvisitor
12-01-2006, 04:37 PM
-24 is my guess. Maybe a December cold snap will appear.

davidhowland14
12-01-2006, 05:09 PM
my guess is -29

Brad
12-01-2006, 09:40 PM
-21 is my number

Wantabe
12-02-2006, 08:18 AM
:)

Wantabe, what part of maryland are you in. My wife and I just left Northern Maryland back in August to NH. Hopefully your in the western part where they get snow:)

Howard County....not the snow belt :(

AlpineHikerFan71
12-02-2006, 10:17 AM
Howard County....not the snow belt :(
I know exactly where that is. We used live in northern Balt. County, like you , not the snow belt. Just hoping that we get this possible coastal storm sunday night into monday up here in NH

SDB777
12-02-2006, 07:33 PM
Guess for my first post here......I'll go with some beginner's luck: -14*F
Hope we don't need to do a windchill for that same time.....maybe: -68*F W.Chill


Scott (grew up in Lebanon, Maine-more detail to follow) B

Brad
12-03-2006, 08:51 AM
Guess for my first post here......I'll go with some beginner's luck: -14*F
Hope we don't need to do a windchill for that same time.....maybe: -68*F W.Chill
Scott (grew up in Lebanon, Maine-more detail to follow) B
Scott,

Welcome to the forum as a 1st time poster. "Arkansas" now - Maine before. You are a long way from the Rockpile! I do hope you get to the northeast every once in a while.

AlpineHikerFan71
12-03-2006, 10:44 AM
Guess for my first post here......I'll go with some beginner's luck: -14*F
Hope we don't need to do a windchill for that same time.....maybe: -68*F W.Chill


Scott (grew up in Lebanon, Maine-more detail to follow) B

Welcome Scott. I bet you miss Maine so much. Life is great here in Northern New England as you know
But welcome to the forum like Brad said

Bill O
12-04-2006, 10:51 AM
Just a reminder to get your number in soon. This is actual temperature, not windchill. I'll summarize all the numbers and post them tomorrow night, but I think we should leave the thread open to continue comments.

Brad
12-04-2006, 12:15 PM
Just a reminder to get your number in soon. This is actual temperature, not windchill. I'll summarize all the numbers and post them tomorrow night, but I think we should leave the thread open to continue comments.
How about picking a closing time for getting the numbers in. Like 7PM tomorrow?

SOOSE
12-05-2006, 10:02 AM
Put me in for -18

Bill O
12-05-2006, 10:18 AM
How about picking a closing time for getting the numbers in. Like 7PM tomorrow?

Okay, 7pm tonight the voting will close. Feel free to make changes until then. FYI, the low this morning was -8F. So you might want to guess colder than that.

GolfRepair
12-05-2006, 02:42 PM
-22 on Christmas Eve, with a strong tailwind for Santa and his sleigh!
Chris

Brad
12-05-2006, 07:20 PM
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Deadline is done
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Bill O
12-05-2006, 07:51 PM
http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/7408/decemberlowssn1.gif

Brad
12-05-2006, 09:07 PM
Now as we go through the month you can go back and edit this post and add a line across where we have already gotten down to. Everyone above the line has dropped out. The remaining folks would be below the line.

AlpineHikerFan71
12-05-2006, 09:23 PM
Now as we go through the month you can go back and edit this post and add a line across where we have already gotten down to. Everyone above the line has dropped out. The remaining folks would be below the line.

I guess alpinehikerfan will be below the line to the very end, :D
most likely i will be above the line prety quick, lol

afmrintern
12-05-2006, 09:45 PM
-8 last night...

Wa Wa WE Wa...Not good for me...

Bill O
12-05-2006, 09:55 PM
It's not The Price Is Right so it doesn't matter if you go over...just have to be the closest.

Waa Waa Wee Waa is right, it got cold last night.

Brad
12-06-2006, 06:14 AM
It's not The Price Is Right so it doesn't matter if you go over...just have to be the closest.

Waa Waa Wee Waa is right, it got cold last night.
Maybe the winner gets a MWO card signed by TV Star, Jim Salge? And a free tour of the Observatory when they go up next time, if they are a member.

Mike D
12-06-2006, 10:15 AM
Oh, you mean "Hollywood Jim"?

Bill O
12-08-2006, 08:26 AM
Judging by the current conditions page we might have our first elimination. Maybe the anonymous poster will give up his reasoning behind those numbers.

Edit: It's official, the temp reached -12F at this morning's synoptic observation. Mike D is now the current leader.

Brad
12-08-2006, 10:04 AM
Judging by the current conditions page we might have our first elimination. Maybe the anonymous poster will give up his reasoning behind those numbers.

Edit: It's official, the temp reached -12F at this morning's synoptic observation. Mike D is now the current leader.
The leader is the closest - or the closest but not being lower than the lowest actual number?

I want that free tour.

afmrintern
12-08-2006, 10:13 AM
I'm out, but I was in the lead for 8 days!!!

Bill O
12-08-2006, 10:43 AM
The leader is the closest - or the closest but not being lower than the lowest actual number?

I want that free tour.

Just has to be the closest, no over/under restrictions.

Mike D
12-08-2006, 11:07 AM
I'm in the lead, but we have 3 weeks left. I'm gunning for a warm snap like the one we had last winter. Of course, if that happened the ski industry would be devastated and winter enthusiasts throughout the region would be upset, but I want the prize! What is the prize? :)

Bill O
12-08-2006, 12:06 PM
I'm in the lead, but we have 3 weeks left. I'm gunning for a warm snap like the one we had last winter. Of course, if that happened the ski industry would be devastated and winter enthusiasts throughout the region would be upset, but I want the prize! What is the prize? :)

Yeah, we don't really have a prize. Bragging rights could be the first prize.

For the next contest I'll sponsor a prize.

WHMOUNTAINMAN
12-08-2006, 03:00 PM
I'm trying to get some action going here so I decided to launch a contest to guess/predict December's low temperature. Entries will be closed after December 5th. No prizes for now, but if this goes well maybe I will sponsor some small prize for future contests.

There's absolutely no skill involved in my guess, just a guess. I will go for a low of -20F. I reserve the right to change this before voting closes.

Edit: Thanks for that info on the range of record lows, that should be helpful. Even with that data I will stick with my current guess. My theory, wrong or not, is that Mount Washington approaches or exceeds a daily record almost every month. At worst once every three months. Which brings -20F into play.
I'm in for -32. What is the record wind chill on the Mt.

Bill O
12-08-2006, 03:06 PM
I'm in for -32. What is the record wind chill on the Mt.

Sorry, you'll have to wait for the next round. The December contest is closed.

Not sure about the record windchill. That's not an official stat that goes into the climate record. I'm not sure they record that anywhere on the summit, but you could always go back and compute it with temp and wind speed. I'm guessing the record low windchill is colder than -100F.

Mike D
12-08-2006, 03:50 PM
Windchill is an ephemeral beast. I'm no meatyerologist, but I know that the widely recognized formula for wind chill was changed in the last decade; making it necessary to recalculate historical values to be sure you're comparing apples to apples.

Brad
12-08-2006, 09:10 PM
I'm in the lead, but we have 3 weeks left. I'm gunning for a warm snap like the one we had last winter. Of course, if that happened the ski industry would be devastated and winter enthusiasts throughout the region would be upset, but I want the prize! What is the prize? :)
My suggestion on the prize is that if the winner is an Observatory member, they get a free tour of the observatory next summer when they go to the summit. If they are not a member, but want the tour, they need to sign up to be a member by Memorial Day - then they can get a free tour.

rockin rex
12-09-2006, 07:52 AM
How about a signed picture of Nin. A signed picture of nin is going to be worth alot of money one day.

AlpineHikerFan71
12-09-2006, 09:01 AM
How about a signed picture of Nin. A signed picture of nin is going to be worth alot of money one day.

Rex,
that is an awesome idea, lol. that would be funny. :)
somebody will win it and then sell it on ebay and make alot of money off it

Charlie
12-18-2006, 07:38 PM
so what was the lowest temp so far

Robohiker
12-18-2006, 08:06 PM
so what was the lowest temp so far
-11 F. on Dec, 8th according to Weather Underground. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMWN/2006/12/18/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar

Bill O claimed it hit -12 F. that day in an earlier post. I don't see any record of that.....I think he may be padding the temps a little.

SummitStaff
12-18-2006, 08:28 PM
-11 F. on Dec, 8th according to Weather Underground. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMWN/2006/12/18/MonthlyHistory.html#calendar

Bill O claimed it hit -12 F. that day in an earlier post. I don't see any record of that.....I think he may be padding the temps a little.

This link is the authority, it is the preliminary raw data from the Observatory.

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/2006/12.pdf

You can find the link to it under F6 on the weather page on mountwashington.org

Robohiker
12-18-2006, 08:36 PM
This link is the authority, it is the preliminary raw data from the Observatory.

http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/2006/12.pdf

You can find the link to it under F6 on the weather page on mountwashington.org

Hummh....The Weather channel site also claims -11 F. on Dec. 8, 2006...

and we know the Weather Channel is never wrong!:rolleyes: ;) :D

Bill O
12-18-2006, 09:04 PM
I'm guessing the -11F is the lowest temperature recorded during the hourly observations. This gets automatically fed into the Weather.com and wunderground systems.

Mike D
12-19-2006, 10:45 AM
I'm guessing the -11F is the lowest temperature recorded during the hourly observations. This gets automatically fed into the Weather.com and wunderground systems.

That is almost certainly why Weather.com and Wunderground are wrong.

Those sites receive the hourly observations, but the low temperature rarely occurs on the hour. The mercury low thermometer is authoritative, and that's where the -12 came from.

AlpineHikerFan71
12-19-2006, 11:00 AM
That is almost certainly why Weather.com and Wunderground are wrong.

Those sites receive the hourly observations, but the low temperature rarely occurs on the hour. The mercury low thermometer is authoritative, and that's where the -12 came from.

Amen on that Mike. Weather.com is consistenly off by a number of degrees each day. Example , ont he 25th of Dec they have a high at 50 degrees for here in southern Nh while other local and national media and weather outlets have a high of 39. thats quite a difference. I know there are many computer models to go by and today the Govt. released a new model called the NMM I belive, more accurate Precip forecasts and more data matching through weather ballons which will help lead to more accuracy in forecasting. but weather.com is always off.

Brad
12-19-2006, 01:36 PM
Amen on that Mike. Weather.com is consistenly off by a number of degrees each day. Example , ont he 25th of Dec they have a high at 50 degrees for here in southern Nh while other local and national media and weather outlets have a high of 39. thats quite a difference. I know there are many computer models to go by and today the Govt. released a new model called the NMM I belive, more accurate Precip forecasts and more data matching through weather ballons which will help lead to more accuracy in forecasting. but weather.com is always off.
Cool - so to speak.

SDB777
12-23-2006, 05:48 PM
Is the 8th low temp still holding?


Scott (inquiring minds want to know) B

Brad
12-23-2006, 06:48 PM
Is the 8th low temp still holding?


Scott (inquiring minds want to know) B
It sure looks it right now. We are running out of time.

Charlie
12-25-2006, 10:44 AM
http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/7408/decemberlowssn1.gif


well it looks like a lot of us were way off so far :eek:

but there is still 1 week to go :D

Bretton Woods Brat
12-26-2006, 06:14 AM
Deleted, entries are closed.

Brad
12-26-2006, 06:50 AM
Hello everyone. ;) I'm going with -37 :eek:
We have only 5 nights left in December. Getting to minus 37 will be a stretch unless you think the weather is going to turn very quickly. Pretty soon the voting should open for January - maybe once we have a "winner" for December.

SOOSE
12-27-2006, 08:14 AM
It's looking good for Mike D with -12.5, so far -12, I think is the low from the monthly f 6 report. And NWS forecast for the rest of the week is showing no artic air arriving any time fast. Here's the link for the forecast.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapClick.php?site=GYX&llon=-71.867083&rlon=-70.909583&tlat=44.890417&blat=43.935417&smap=1&mp=1&map.x=150&map.y=149

Mike D
01-01-2007, 01:04 PM
Did I win, did I win?

Wait a minute, I can check for myself... http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/2006/12.pdf

Yes I did win. First I'd like to thank my family...

Brad
01-01-2007, 02:08 PM
Did I win, did I win?

Wait a minute, I can check for myself... http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/2006/12.pdf

Yes I did win. First I'd like to thank my family...
But, you see - you are a weather dude. You have an In with the weather gods.

Bill O
01-01-2007, 04:19 PM
Yeah, yeah, nice job Mike.

Patrad Fischroy
01-02-2007, 12:40 PM
Yeah and as an administrator, doesn't he have access to the network? Hmmm am I the only conspiracy theorist here?

Mike D
01-02-2007, 04:34 PM
Sheesh, you think I would intentionally falsify our climate record just to win a contest with no prize? To prove I'm on the level, I'm donating the proceeds to charity.

Brad
01-02-2007, 07:18 PM
Sheesh, you think I would intentionally falsify our climate record just to win a contest with no prize? To prove I'm on the level, I'm donating the proceeds to charity.
Can I be the charity? Please - Please!

Gorque
01-03-2007, 04:09 PM
Sheesh, you think I would intentionally falsify our climate record just to win a contest with no prize? To prove I'm on the level, I'm donating the proceeds to charity.

So you're saying that you went outside with a blowtorch and raised the temperature near the probe? j/k :D