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View Full Version : When will we see the new snow?



forestgnome
10-03-2008, 06:36 PM
I'd like to photograph some foliage with some snow-capped peaks. Any ideas when we'll see the higher summits in the clear?

Bill O
10-03-2008, 09:04 PM
There was some beautiful light today. Summit capped in clouds, sun on the foliage, and a crisp snowline.

MsCntry
10-03-2008, 09:12 PM
There was some beautiful light today. Summit capped in clouds, sun on the foliage, and a crisp snowline.

Supposed to be nice all week. Joe is talking about doing a hike to a snow cap coming up probably Thursday. I took a drive up the Kancamagus today, most of the beautiful colors have already fallen. I may just have to take a drive tomorrow :D Gotta go get groceries anyway LOL, what's a few 20 miles more?? :p To avoid traffic I can drive up the Kanc to Bear Camp Notch Road and head up that way. Enjoy the whole drive **smiles** :)

Bill O
10-03-2008, 09:23 PM
The models show the summit breaking out of the clouds late Sunday evening into Monday. With a chance of snow showers all weekend it could be nice when it finally happens.

Knapper
10-04-2008, 03:44 PM
If I were working and forecasting this week, I would say the best chance will come by Tuesday. There is still a lot of things in the area which are favorable for upsloping. These are (but are not limited to) low level moisture, a weak upper an mid level trough, a favorable moderatly blowing west-northwesterly wind, warm air from the valleys flowing over cooler air on the summits, etc. The MOS numbers seem to reflect this as a drying out does not show up really til Monday night into Tuesday. But even this is questionable, as an intern study found that if the degree spread is 3 degrees or less, there is still a favorable chance of fog. But 850 RH maps show clearing on Tuesday as well as high pressure begins to crest at all levels and dry air from the north back in. So I would say, if in the area, watch for Monday night but I would put better money on Tuesday. Better odds occur on Wednesday on. But this is just for Mt. W. Looking out my window currently, a lot of the summit around my house are in the clear today.

MsCntry
10-04-2008, 08:29 PM
Well clouds or no clouds, I kept my word. I drove up the Kancamagus to Bear Notch Road, down through Jackson, up 16 and took some great shots, even with the clouds. Came back down 16 hitting traffic that took an hour and a half to get through, stopped got my soda, and headed home in the same kind of traffic:rolleyes: Why did I go up north on a weekend???:eek::rolleyes:

I will get those pics posted ASAP.:D

Breeze
10-04-2008, 08:55 PM
ah HA!

Your license plate gave it up! Was YOU!

Late afternoon today ( 5:30) in Pinkham Notch... I expect you got some awesome views of the snowcapped summits fringed below with the fall colors.

good on ya to fight the road wars!

Breeze

Bill O
10-05-2008, 08:04 AM
I still think you have a chance on Monday morning. I'm not talking about blue bird skies, but for photography you're probably not looking for that. Afterall, Ansel Adams' famous photo of Yosemite isn't called "Clear Winter Day".

forestgnome
10-06-2008, 07:10 AM
Thanks Knapper and BillO. As of this morning, I think tomorrow looks really good. Please feel free to guess which might be the best bet for a clear morning on the summit, Tuesday or Wednesday.

Will the snow melt or will it remain cold enough? Should I lean toward tomorrow considering the melt?

Thanks

Bill O
10-06-2008, 08:13 AM
I'll let Ryan add some thoughts on that. I do know that a clear, dry day even in the 20s can take a serious toll on the rime ice. Sublimation.

Knapper
10-06-2008, 04:40 PM
Models are in agreement for clearing overnight into tomorrow. The problem is, initialization show them clearing as of now and by looking at the obs, they are still in the fog. But, looking out my door and at the various webcams in our network, the layer is slowly lifting like it usually does around sunset when drier air is working in. Looking at current water vapor maps, there still is plenty of low level moisture to work with although current vis sats show a clearing line just north of the Canadian border working down. So this puts the 850 RH maps about three to six hours too fast with a drying pattern. So, will there be clearing overnight, probably. Will the summits be clear at sunrise, maybe. When the sunrises tomorrow, it might be enough instability to generate a bit of summit fog for a few hours since the drier air is still a ways back and will be on the fringe of passing tomorrow morning. Wednesday would be a safer bet for sunrise but as Bill mentioned, melting will be a problem.

If you have been watching the cams, you might have noticed the frost line has slowly creeped up the side of the mountain from Saturday until today. This line will continue to make its way up since there are various factors working against keeping it. One is heat. Temperatures are expected to continue to climb for the next 36 hours, even overnight, to upper 40s and 50s by Friday. The summit does not have diurnal cycles, so warm days and cold nights do night apply. So with above 32, things will start to melt day and night. Dry air coming in will help sublimate things (ie, solid to gas skipping the liquid step) evaporating the snow pack day and night. Lastly, if we do clear, day time radiation will also finish off the pack. Will it be gone in one day? Probably not but it wont linger too far into the week once cleared. And if we do go back into the fog, even worst since fog is a rime/snow killer when above freezing.

So when would be the better day? If you live close enough, try Tuesday since the snow will look crisper and further down but you do run the chance of summit fog tomorrow. Wednesday will have some melt off but looks to remain a better shot at clearing. The best thing to do is go to:
http://leonardo.met.tamu.edu/Weather_Interface/index.php
You will enter KMWN as the station for the summit, change the time period to six hours or more and look at raw or decoded details and hit submit. If you see clearing in obs, you will see clearing from the valleys. There are other places you can check our obs, this is just what I used when going to school so I am most familiar with it. The webcams can also be useful, although they do not work well overnight, so not sure how useful they will be. But keep an eye on them as late as visibly possible and judge from there.

Hope this helps as best it can. Sorry I cannot be more definate but at least my prediction of Tuesday is looking OK. Good luck and let us know how you make out.

fredmeissner
10-06-2008, 08:39 PM
Anybody have an idea of how much snow is going to be up there on the weekend of the 18th?