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mtruman
07-16-2010, 07:02 AM
OK, I know it is still 8 days till Seek the Peak and that it's pretty much impossible to predict the conditions on Mount Washington 8 hours ahead, let alone over a week. Any brave observers want to take a shot at what the long range trend is looking like though? We all promise not to hold you to it ;)

BanjoChris
07-16-2010, 07:26 AM
Accue Weather is currently predicting partly sunny!!! Dare to dream!!!!

http://www.accuweather.com/us/nh/mount-washington/UA035/forecast-month.asp

Back in 2007 I was lucky enough to summit on a day with 70 degree summit temperatures and almost no clouds. Just a hint of haze kept us from seeing the ocean.

Chris

Knapper
07-16-2010, 05:12 PM
I am not prepared enough to forecast out that far but so far the models are keeping the tropical air mass in place which means it won't take much for the threat of showers and thunderstorms to move their way into the forecast language similar to what has been the entire month of July more or less. I will keep people posted if this a thread of interest. If not, I will start putting the STP forecast in the discussion starting Thursday morning when I am back on the summit even though it is outside of the 36 hour window.

But if you are going to use a purely numerical forecasting model like accuweather produces, at least use the summit forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/us/nh/mt.-washington-smt./03589/forecast-month.asp The link BanjoChris linked to is for Mt Washington, NH but that numerical model is more inline and interpreted using elevations closer to the base and not the summit. You can also keep an eye on NWS Gray, ME who is a bit more accurate for long term forecasting because there is at least some minimal human adjustments on the numbers: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Mount+Washington&state=NH&site=GYX&lat=44.2706&lon=-71.3047

But looking at all the models, if everything holds as is, my prediction that I made last month of us beating or tying the summits all time record high of 72F (from the past 78 yrs of our existence) is looking very realistic. Lets hope this isn't true and things adjust lower, mainly so I don't have to deal with the paper work with NCDC :)

BanjoChris
07-16-2010, 05:30 PM
Knapper,

Thanks much...my meteorological expertise can be summed up by telling you all that...as I look out my window...it's bright outside...

Chris

mtruman
07-16-2010, 06:34 PM
Thanks Ryan. Sounds like we'll be planning an early start again (both to beat the crowds and give us some leeway with the potential afternoon storms). I thought from everything I'd seen that it looked like the current pattern wasn't moving any time soon (this is of course not due to my meteorological ability since that is roughly equivalent to what Chris professes). Thanks for the link to the Accuweather summit forecast. I wasn't aware that this existed and always look at just the OBS forecasts (which are of course short term but I'm sure more accurate ;) ). Look forward to the end of week forecasts and an assurance that we won't be seeing any new record high temps. Cold front, cold front, cold front... (doesn't hurt to hope)

Snow Miser
07-16-2010, 08:06 PM
Thanks Ryan for both your current forecast, and for the ones you will be providing leading up to 7/24. I too like the Accuweather link you provided. Now we just sit an hope for the best. And I'm with Mark in saying, Cold front, please, pretty please.:)

Bill O
07-16-2010, 08:16 PM
...... Thanks for the link to the Accuweather summit forecast. I wasn't aware that this existed and always look at just the OBS forecasts (which are of course short term but I'm sure more accurate ;) ). (doesn't hurt to hope)

As Ryan has mentioned in other threads, the Accuweather forecast is purely numerical. There are no humans involved and its based both on forecast models and climatology (not that humans are any more accurate at that time frame). At two weeks out they are a bit of a novelty, but may provide some insights into trends. Before a marathon I tend to find the two week forecast provides more stress than relief and has been off by 30 degrees in major cities.

Charlie
07-17-2010, 03:25 PM
well lets just hope its a little cool with low humidity

David
07-17-2010, 05:44 PM
If you go to www.weather.com (weather channel) and plug in North Conway and 10 day forecast it shows a big unimpeded sunshine for See the Peak!

BanjoChris
07-21-2010, 07:10 AM
Current National Weather Service Forecast...waiting patiently for the Obs forecast:

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

BAXTERCA2
07-21-2010, 07:28 AM
Chris -
I'm not in the business of forecasting the weather. I leave that to the professionals but, I feel pretty confident it won't be 68* on the Summit.

BanjoChris
07-21-2010, 08:10 AM
Karen,

I completely agree...

Maybe NWS stands for National Weather Suggestion...

I have summited when it was in the 70's...not a cloud in the sky...negligible wind...spectacular.

On Saturday, I'm going to be happy with dry and in the 50's...

Chris

BAXTERCA2
07-21-2010, 02:58 PM
Hey Chris -
You might be on to something, perhaps it's really NWSuggestion and they disguise it as NWService. Let's think about this for a minute, excluding the MW Observers :cool: how many weather reports come out wrong even with all the tools available to them.

So, "Suggestion" makes sense to me. I'm feeling pretty silly today so, with absolutely no experience at this I'm going to make my STP forecast prediction.



At the base it will be DARK, cloudy with some light showers, temps in the mid 50's
Above treeline, there will be breaks of sun and clouds, temps still in mid 50's
Around noon the summit will be a flurry (not snow flurries Sorry) of activity, sun and clouds with temps in the upper 50's - lower 60's

Brad
07-21-2010, 04:55 PM
I am sure the light showers in the morning will be isolated only over places where there are no trails.

Charlie
07-21-2010, 05:23 PM
i have my umbrella

BanjoChris
07-21-2010, 05:56 PM
If it's raining, I'll just skip taking a shower.

Karen,

I sure your forecast will be no less accurate than NWS.

Regardless of the weather...I can't wait to Seek the Peak!!!

Chris

BAXTERCA2
07-21-2010, 07:01 PM
I'm pretty sure my forecast is on the money....

Knapper
07-21-2010, 07:12 PM
Just FYI, I will start putting Saturday and Sundays forecasts in the summits forecast discussion (http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit_forecast.php) starting tomorrow.

Brad
07-21-2010, 09:33 PM
Just FYI, I will start putting Saturday and Sundays forecasts in the summits forecast discussion (http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit_forecast.php) starting tomorrow.
Just make sure it is a good one.

CHRIS
07-21-2010, 09:36 PM
Lets all hope we get some decent weather but what ever it is we all have to prepare for it and just enjoy the hike. It will be a fun time no matter if its hot or cold,dry or wet.

Charlie
07-21-2010, 10:20 PM
it was wet last year and we still made it to the top and had fun also

BanjoChris
07-22-2010, 07:10 AM
You got it Chris!!!

Hiking in the wet and cold on Mount Washington beats a sunny day viewed from my office window!!!

Chris

Snow Miser
07-22-2010, 12:55 PM
Chris, you're right. Rain or shine it's gonna be a great day. Just no lightning please.

David
07-22-2010, 02:50 PM
I think the smart amongst us will start up the mountain as early as possible on Saturday. Given weather..I am going the most direct route from Pinkham...Lions Head up and Tuckermans down.

David

BanjoChris
07-22-2010, 03:07 PM
I'm still shooting for Nelson Crag up and Tuck down...plan to hit the trail head at or before 6:00 am.