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Bill O
03-04-2007, 03:42 PM
Early this week record cold is forecast for Mount Washington. Models are indicating lows around -30F for Tuesday, which will easily shatter the old record low of -23F.

rockin rex
03-04-2007, 06:11 PM
And they said winter was coming to a close.

Bill O
03-04-2007, 06:47 PM
And they said winter was coming to a close.

That's what happens when you grab a groundhog out of a hole and hold him up by his neck.

KD Talbot
03-04-2007, 10:26 PM
Well, robins pretty much stay around this area all winter, going out near the coast where there is little snow and open fields to find food. I have been seeing them for weeks feeding on staghorn sumac berries, but the true harbinger of spring to me is the redwing blackbird. The males arrive first and set up their territories. Even though it is still frozen, the marsh behind my house was full of them this morning. So despite the harsh winter conditions forecast for MW it looks like an early spring in southern NH.
KDT

Steve M
03-05-2007, 12:56 AM
That's what happens when you grab a groundhog out of a hole and hold him up by his neck.

And beat it into submission!!:D

Bill O
03-05-2007, 08:36 AM
Models are indicating between -30F and -32F for the summit. Over the last few months when we got to the forecast low the minimums came in a few degrees colder. So -34 or -35F is not out of the question, should everything go right.

As for coldest March temperature on record, I doubt it. -38F is a long way from -32F.

Bill O
03-05-2007, 12:51 PM
Looks like another shot at -30F for Thursday as well.

rockin rex
03-05-2007, 02:55 PM
Boy with it getting this cold in March the ski resorts will be able to blow snow.
Looks like we should be seeing resort skiing into mid April. Then Tucks in May.
Then only 4 months and put the skis back on. Wish I hadn't destroyed my knee cause I could sure be working on my ski tan the next couple months. Oh well always next year. Bring on the cold!!!!!!!!!!! Whats the guess with the wind chill?? Looks like 60 mile per hour right now.

Bill O
03-05-2007, 03:32 PM
Boy with it getting this cold in March the ski resorts will be able to blow snow.

They can, but that doesn't mean they will. Blowing snow is incredibly expensive, and with plenty of coverage there is no need to make snow. There is really no gain for them to make snow. After March the money making is essentially over. I'd argue that its over after February, but we wont go there.

It wasn't long ago that Killington was convinced that staying open until June was the key to success. I went skiing on a Tuesday in June with 2 other friends. Killington sold 3 lift tickets that day.

Bill O
03-06-2007, 07:42 AM
-36F this morning. Coldest day of the winter on March 6th!

It's not unlike having the hottest day of the summer on September 6th.

Bill O
03-06-2007, 08:03 AM
Summit temp is still dropping. Current conditions page now reads -34.5F as of 800am (time is wrong on that page). When this morning's low of of -36F was recorded the current conditions page was above -33F.

Charlie
03-06-2007, 08:17 AM
NOW That's Cold

Brad
03-06-2007, 10:25 AM
Yes, very cold.

http://images21.fotki.com/v577/photos/1/1002902/4064008/20070306_070743_conditions-vi.jpg

WeatherKeeper
03-06-2007, 10:56 AM
Summit temp is still dropping. Current conditions page now reads -34.5F as of 800am (time is wrong on that page). When this morning's low of of -36F was recorded the current conditions page was above -33F.

What is the wind chill record for March, does anyone know, is wind chill records even recorded?

Bill O
03-06-2007, 11:04 AM
What is the wind chill record for March, does anyone know, is wind chill records even recorded?

Windchill records are not kept. If they were you would probably be looking at the record today. You are withing a few degrees of the monthly record with high winds.

The big news comes out at 1pm. At that time we'll know if the March temperature record was broken. I'm guessing no. Maybe a tie, maybe -37F. But I was pleasantly wrong this morning.

WeatherKeeper
03-06-2007, 11:57 AM
Windchill records are not kept. If they were you would probably be looking at the record today. You are withing a few degrees of the monthly record with high winds.

The big news comes out at 1pm. At that time we'll know if the March temperature record was broken. I'm guessing no. Maybe a tie, maybe -37F. But I was pleasantly wrong this morning.

When you say it "comes out" @ 1pm is it posted on the main website? www.mountwashington.org?

Bill O
03-06-2007, 12:02 PM
When you say it "comes out" @ 1pm is it posted on the main website? www.mountwashington.org?

It's embedded in the metar code that can be seen if you click on the "weather" tab. They take the observation between 12:45 and 1:00, but it may not be visible on the internet until 1:15. At the end of the metar code look for the five digit number beginning with 21. The following three numbers is the low in Celsius.

Or just wait until they update the web comments.

Bill O
03-06-2007, 01:18 PM
The record stands. This morning's low was -37F.

Bill O
03-07-2007, 07:23 AM
And now its the valley's turn, right on queue.

As of 7am...

Berlin, NH: -29F
Whitefield, NH: -33F
Saranac Lake, NY: -35F

Still another hour of good cooling to come so we might see lower temperatures.

treant985
03-07-2007, 04:59 PM
And now its the valley's turn, right on queue.

As of 7am...

Berlin, NH: -29F
Whitefield, NH: -33F
Saranac Lake, NY: -35F

Still another hour of good cooling to come so we might see lower temperatures.

I believe that that -35 in Saranac Lake is a new March record for them...although it's tough to find reliable info on that town. The all-time NY state low for March is -41; Saranac Lake could challenge that this Thursday night/Friday morning when temps are supposed to drop to -35 there again.

And that -37 at MWO the other day was not just 1 degree off the MWO March record, but also the NH state record for March. Here are the March record lows for some NE states:

NH: -38, Mt. Washington (1950)
VT: -37, St. Albans (1938)
NY: -41, Chazy (1938)
MA: -22, West Cummington (1943)
ME: -40, Lac Frontiere (1943)
CT: -24, Coventry (1967)

and here are what I believe to be the coldest temps for those states thus far THIS March:
NH: -37, Mt. Washington (1 off state monthly record)
VT: -15, Rutland (22 off state monthly record)
NY: -35, Saranac Lake (6 off state monthly record)
MA: -7, Pittsfield (15 off state monthly record)
ME: -23, Fryeburg (17 off state monthly record)
CT: 3, several places (27 off state monthly record)

Bill O
03-07-2007, 06:39 PM
It was -22F at my place in Vermont in the Champlain Valley. I think Burlington and St. Johnsbury were both colder than -15F. Both set daily records.

Edit: I just saw the forecast for Thursday night. Impressive. Forecast for Saranac Lake is -35F and the discussions are talking about records. Looks like this is going to be a valley event with ideal radiational cooling.

treant985
03-07-2007, 07:18 PM
It was -22F at my place in Vermont in the Champlain Valley. I think Burlington and St. Johnsbury were both colder than -15F. Both set daily records.

Edit: I just saw the forecast for Thursday night. Impressive. Forecast for Saranac Lake is -35F and the discussions are talking about records. Looks like this is going to be a valley event with ideal radiational cooling.

There aren't too many reporting stations in VT....I pulled the following lows from Tues and Wed morning from the NY state page, which lists most of the VT stations that report daily:

BURLINGTON VT -11
MORRISVILLE VT -13
MONTPELIER VT -10
ST JOHNSBURY VT -11
SPRINGFIELD VT -14
RUTLAND VT -15
BENNINGTON VT -8

However, I found another NOAA page with the following:

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON VERMONT REACHED -18 DEGREES AT
7:15 AM TODAY. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE...
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF -14 DEGREES SET IN 1989.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT REACHED -24 DEGREES
TODAY. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DATE...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF -16 DEGREES SET IN 1989.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT MONTPELIER VERMONT REACHED -17 DEGREES
TODAY. THIS TIED THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET IN 1989

...so obviously the NY state reports were off. The hourly reports at the NOAA seem to confirm the colder readings, except they list -22 for St. Johnsbury.

May I ask where you saw discussion about possible records falling on Friday morning? I did a google news search hoping to find mention of this morning's -35 reading at Saranac Lake, but I came up empty.

edit: Mt. Mansfield in VT recorded -28 yesterday morning according to an NOAA release I just read.

Bill O
03-07-2007, 08:30 PM
It was in the Burlington NWS discussion issued at 355pm. Here (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=BTVAFDBTV&version=0)


SOMEWHAT OF A DEJA VU WEATHER SCENARIO WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. FIRST LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TOO MUCH ABOVE THE MINIMUM
VALUES TONIGHT. THUS LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH SOME AREAS NOT EVEN MAKING IT TO ZERO.
THUS THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
ONCE AGAIN IT WILL BE A SITUATION WHERE THE EVENT WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. THUS
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO RECORD LEVELS WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING READINGS AS LOW AS 30 TO 40 BELOW. THE RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WILL COME ON THE HEELS OF SOME RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...MUCH LIKE WHAT WE SAW ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDEST CORE OF AIR AT 850 MB MOVES QUICKLY
EAST ON FRIDAY AND WITH FULL SUN AND LIGHT WINDS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO GET HIGH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL THEN START A
WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

Edit: Burlington NWS also mentions -40F in a new Special Weather Statement

KD Talbot
03-07-2007, 09:03 PM
I have some questions about these cold temps. Can temps this cold be accurately measured with a mercury thermometer? I thought I had read that mercury becomes innacurate at these low temps. I was in Rangeley a couple of years ago and the morning temp read -40 on a mercury thermometer. Could this be?

Part two- If they're not accurate, how do we know that the reports coming in are accurate? Couldn't they be coming in from a weather novice like myself? Or do they have to be verified?
KDT

Edit: I guess anything reported by the NOAA is from a reliable source, but I'm saying what you might hear on the local news/weather reports.

Bill O
03-07-2007, 09:18 PM
I have some questions about these cold temps. Can temps this cold be accurately measured with a mercury thermometer? I thought I had read that mercury becomes innacurate at these low temps. I was in Rangeley a couple of years ago and the morning temp read -40 on a mercury thermometer. Could this be?

Part two- If they're not accurate, how do we know that the reports coming in are accurate? Couldn't they be coming in from a weather novice like myself? Or do they have to be verified?
KDT

Edit: I guess anything reported by the NOAA is from a reliable source, but I'm saying what you might hear on the local news/weather reports.

Most of the data mentioned above comes from airport automated ASOS stations. They use thermistors that are certified for NWS use. No mercury or alcohol involved, just electricty passing through a resistor.

The local media is pretty lazy, they get most of their data from NWS sites, or from sites like Weather Undeground. I wouldn't worry too much about mercury, almost nobody uses it...you can barely buy the stuff anymore. Co-op observers are issued alcohol filled minimum thermometers. Newer co-op observers are using high end Davis weather stations.

I'm not sure I answered your question. Official data comes from NWS offices, airport ASOS, Mount Washington, and co-op observers. And maybe some call in reports from weather enthusiasts, but any records will be verified by the NWS.

KD Talbot
03-08-2007, 06:08 AM
Thanks, Bill. Yes, that answers part 2, but, was I getting an accurate reading from a mercury thermometer when I was in Rangeley? It seems very difficult for temps to reach -40 at this latitude, even on MW.
KDT

Bill O
03-08-2007, 07:26 AM
Thanks, Bill. Yes, that answers part 2, but, was I getting an accurate reading from a mercury thermometer when I was in Rangeley? It seems very difficult for temps to reach -40 at this latitude, even on MW.
KDT

I'm not sure. I read that mercury freezes at just above -40F. Could it have been a nice alcohol thermometer? I'm guessing it was because nobody would make a mercury thermometer that goes that cold if they know its just going to turn to solid metal.

If a thermometer existed that used liquid water you wouldn't make the scale below 32F.

KD Talbot
03-08-2007, 09:28 AM
I'll have to check into that now. I was pretty sure it was mercury, but I guess it could have been alcohol, if they look the same. If it were alcohol, it would provide an accurate reading?
KDT

Bill O
03-08-2007, 09:36 AM
I'll have to check into that now. I was pretty sure it was mercury, but I guess it could have been alcohol, if they look the same. If it were alcohol, it would provide an accurate reading?
KDT

If it was alcohol it should be accurate. I'm not guaranteeing anything. Just take a look at the bulb on the end. Mercury will look silver/metal, alcohol will be red.

NWS thermometers only have to accurate to within one degree celsius, that's 1.8F.

treant985
03-08-2007, 10:38 AM
Based on what I've read, it could have been a mercury thermometer, but if it was reading -40, then it probably wasn't "NWS accurate." Almost all substances don't contract evenly right at their freezing point; I think mercury's freezing point is like -38F, but it probably wouldn't be accurate after -35F or so. It may have been somewhere colder than -35F, but with a combo of a slightly inaccurate thermometer with the mercury behaving weird right at the freezing point could've made it show -40F.

Are the red ones always alcohol? I was never sure if it was possible to dye mercury somehow. Just to throw it out there, I've also seen blue and yellow alcohol ones, so they can be pretty much any color.

KD Talbot
03-08-2007, 01:40 PM
Yes, it was red, so probably alcohol. My thermometer at home is also red. I just assumed my one at home was a mercury thermometer as it was old and I was ignorant of the fact that they made alcohol thermometers. I guess the fact it goes down to -60 would be the giveaway. What Bill said earlier about it not making sense to have a measuring instrument marked for -40 when it couldn' accurately measure that temp should have been my clue. Thanks guys for straightening me out on this. Obviously my interests in MW are for reasons other than my meteorological curiosity, but I'm learning! So, I guess that answers my original question, and it really was -40 (or close to) in Rangeley!
KDT

Bill O
03-08-2007, 08:09 PM
Whitefield, NH went calm 3 hours ago and their temp is already at -15F. Now all we need is their airmass to dry out. They still have a dewpoint of -25F...and it can't get colder than the dewpoint.

Meanwhile on Mount Washington the cold air mass has come and gone. It slipped by early this afternoon. Their temps are on the rise.

treant985
03-08-2007, 11:10 PM
Whitefield, NH went calm 3 hours ago and their temp is already at -15F. Now all we need is their airmass to dry out. They still have a dewpoint of -25F...and it can't get colder than the dewpoint.

Meanwhile on Mount Washington the cold air mass has come and gone. It slipped by early this afternoon. Their temps are on the rise.

Saranac Lake is already -25 at 11pm...if it keeps cooling like that then they should be a lock to hit -40 by 8am. Their current dew point is -30.

Bill O
03-09-2007, 06:54 AM
Saranac Lake is already -25 at 11pm...if it keeps cooling like that then they should be a lock to hit -40 by 8am. Their current dew point is -30.

Uggh....its not happening. Either the air isn't dry enough or there is the slightest breeze. Coldest I have seen in -31F at Whitefield. Maybe -30F at Saranac. SLK hit -27F just after midnight.

Edit: It was a layer of cirrus clouds. NE Vermont and northern NH escaped the clouds so they are going to have the coldest temps. It will be interesting to see what the co-op observers report.

afmrintern
03-09-2007, 07:09 AM
Mount Washington: WARMEST in NH!

BERLIN -25
CONCORD -2
JAFFREY -7
KEENE -8
LACONIA -6
LEBANON -17
MANCHESTER 1
MT WASHINGTON 7
NASHUA 1
PLYMOUTH ARPRT 1
PLYMOUTH STATE -2
PORTSMOUTH -0
ROCHESTER -0
WHITEFIELD -31

treant985
03-09-2007, 05:02 PM
Looks like the -31 at Whitefield is the low report for this morning.

By the way, here are the coldest March temps for Mt. Washington since 1948:

3/03/1950 -38
3/03/2003 -37
3/06/2007 -37
3/12/1984 -32
3/01/1980 -30
3/07/2007 -30

Bill O
03-09-2007, 05:11 PM
A station called Island Pond Airport in Vermont checked in with -34F. I don't think they are official though. They hit -35F the night before and nobody seemed to care so that data is suspect.

Another station in Vermont called Sutton 2NE had a low of -31F.

treant985
03-09-2007, 09:22 PM
A station called Island Pond Airport in Vermont checked in with -34F. I don't think they are official though. They hit -35F the night before and nobody seemed to care so that data is suspect.

Another station in Vermont called Sutton 2NE had a low of -31F.

"Island Pond" has a page on the National Climatic Data Center's website, so it may be an official station. It looks like there are two stations, one "Island Pond" and the other "Island Pond Airport," so I don't know if the Airport is considered official too....

Is this the same place you got your VT temps? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=HYD&node=KBTV I just found that page, and it lists a lot more stations than the other NWS pages I've been using....

Bill O
03-10-2007, 10:46 AM
That's essentially the same page. Just a list of co-op observers from around the forecast area.