View Full Version : weather outlook for STP

07-13-2012, 07:12 AM
Is it possible to get an idea of what the weather will look like for the Friday and Saturday for STP? Maybe updates as we get closer. Please please.

07-13-2012, 07:15 AM

The Observatory won't officially forecast more than 24 hours +/- into the future. A few years ago they steared me to this site for long range forecast...but they disclaimed all responsibility for its accuracy!!! :)



Snow Miser
07-13-2012, 07:39 AM
We all know the weather can change quickly, but, as of now, is looks okay. Just no rain please! :)

07-13-2012, 07:54 AM
Lets all do our no rain good weather dance.

07-13-2012, 07:55 AM
Is it possible to get an idea of what the weather will look like for the Friday and Saturday for STP? Maybe updates as we get closer. Please please.

You Boob.....someone always has to ask this question every year! hahaha!!
Why don't you take it a step further and ask "Will it be clear for the sunrise drive-up on Sunday"...haha!

"shake shake shake" Magic 8 Ball.
Chris would like to know the weather in New England haha! specifically up and around Mt Washington. I know haha!

07-13-2012, 09:47 AM
I will start by saying that whatever I am about to say is not an “official” MWO forecast. It is a personal preliminary forecast that I will do since it is something I have done in past STP events for participants. Since forecasting out over a week for any location, especially Mount Washington, is extremely variable and unreliable, your plans should be flexible as weather may change as the date approaches. I will try to remember to update this page as the date approaches, but the final word on the forecast will be posted here: http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit_forecast.php. I will likely start incorporating the STP weekend forecast into the “official 36-hour outlook” language starting Thursday, July 19th, when I am back on shift next week.

Outlook: Thursday will see a frontal band tied to an upper level trough moving through and out as Canadian High Pressure builds down for Friday. Some lingering moisture on the backside of the trough may allow for a few upslope and/or convective activity during the afternoon on Friday and/or Saturday. Saturday looks like the ridge will be cresting in allowing for generally fair skies and conditions. An approaching low behind the ridge will have to monitored though as a quick approach will wash out Sundays sunrise and may affect Saturday afternoon. As of now though it is looking like Saturday will see Partly sunny skies with about a 20% chance of showers/thunderstorms with temperatures in the 50s and winds in the 20-35 mph range..

So, that is at least my preliminary assesment of the upcoming weather for STP. Additionally, here is what else I recommend doing. Continue to use "long term" model forecast that might provide 5, 7, 10, or 15+ days outlooks (I prefer NWS’s layout: http://preview.weather.gov/wtf/MapCl...6&lon=-71.3047) but you can use any other weather site you are comfortable with. And, if you are going to use a modeled forecast for longer term weather, use our summits zip of 03589 and not "mt washington, nh" since our zip code provides a more accurate model translation than the "city" name which puts our location lower and more northwest than we actually are due to the algorithm they and others use. But even our zip code algorithm puts us in a lower elevation bracket. That is why conditions in long term models are always milder and not as accurate overall. But, it is always good to use the computed forecasts for a rough idea of the big weather picture but it shouldn't be used for long term temperature and winds. What I mean is, if the computer models are saying 100% of rain/snow/thunderstorms/etc for the summit, Conway, and Berlin, odds are something will be coming for for the summit that day as well. However, the winds and temperatures will not be accurate until 36 hour out when humans at NWS and ourselves (MWO) start fine tuning the numbers for the higher summits. So, do a mix of both, look long term daily until you reach that 36 hour window then start fine tuning with NWS’s and MWO’s forecast. But, it should be noted that while NWS does provide a short term 36 hour forecast, l(http://www.weather.gov/view/validPro...=REC&node=KGYX) it is a forecast for all summits in NH and western ME. So, while it is good to use as a second opinion, it may not be as accurate as ours for the Presidential Range of the White Mountains since they’re forecasting for a much broader and generalized area.

And the other thing I always suggest is that the best way to know what the weather will be on any given day in the future is to not look solely at the future but to look at the past too. And there are several places to further anyone's research into what to expect on your future hiking dates so you make an informed decision on which day/days to venture out on the mountain tops. So the first place to check out is our normals, means and extremes page:http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/normals.php to give you a better idea of what is considered average and extremes that the month can provide. Next up are our monthly F-6's:http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/. These are the weather stats for each month/day over past five plus years. This is the clearest view of what to expect on average. If a particular day over the past five or so years has been 30F with 50 mph winds, odds are, statistically, that it will be like that this year. And if you want to see what the forecasts were for those days were, you can check those at:http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/summit.php. This way you can see what weather was forecasted to produce that outcome. If a past forecast said a low was going to pass and caused that weather and the current forecast calls for something similar, odds are, again statistically speaking, that the weather outcome will be the same. And as always, on the days leading up to your trips, you keep an eye on our forecast for the summits here:http://www.mountwashington.org/weath...t_forecast.phpand our extended forecast for valleys for a rough idea of what the weather pattern might be here:http://www.mountwashington.org/weath...y_forecast.php.

Hopefully this all helps. Again, I will try to update this outlook later this off week of mine, but no guarantees, especially, like I already mentioned, I am not working. And like I mentioned before, this is in no way an “official” MWO forecast nor is it set in stone. So, please continue to check back to the higher summit outlook and other sites as your hike approaches. And note that I/we don’t usually do personalized forecasts, but I am personally making a rare exception for this event. And lastly, if you have any questions, please feel free to ask.

07-13-2012, 12:19 PM
Thank you Ryan. Have a great week off.