Major coldwave around Jan 17?

In his most recent blog post (http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-b...=weathermatrix), Jesse Ferrell at accuweather.com talks about how some models are showing a pretty major cold wave coming to the NE in about a week (Jan 17).

It almost certainly won't get this cold, since the model can't account for a lot of factors, but it currently shows that NYC could reach -13F, with places in eastern PA hitting -30F!

Any of the more-abled meteorologists out there taken a look at the long-range forecast to see what kinds of temps might be seen in NH, ME, and upstate NY?

-13F in NYC would be amazing, not to mention a major disaster. I imagine the city would totally shutdown.

I have heard about this coming cold wave. A few days ago it was mentioned in a weekly weather newsletter I subscribe to. Over the past couple days I've heard it being downplayed as well.

As for actual temps, I have no idea. I do know that its been extremely cold in Alaska. -40 to -60 for the past few days.

The 15-day pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey "forecast" at Accuweather doesn't buy it. They have a low of 9F where I live next Saturday.

Edit: I renew my disapproval of Accuweather. NYC NWS is forecasting a high of 15F on Thursday, Accuweather comes in at 22F. I'm convinced that no real people actually do any forecasting there.

Yea, a lot of the mainstream forecasts show cold air--but nothing even close to record temps.

Still, it'd be amazing if this kind of air actually comes down. I'd really look forward to seeing what kinds of temps would happen in places like Saranac Lake and of course MWO.

bill you are right i dont think a lot of the TV weather people know how to predict the weather because all they say all the time is that the predictor says the weather is going to do ????. also the one is so hooked on there supper Doppler

last week we were to get hit with a big storm and a lot of places closed and we got rain
now today they started with we are to get oner 6" of snow tonight it is down to 1-3 :rolleyes: by morning who knows

I just looked at the long range models through the period...and sure thing...it looks mighty cold. 850mb temps (~4000 feet depending on thickness) are set to go as low as -33C. I don't think I remember seeing that last winter...and I've never seen below -39C. So, if this plays out, the summit could be looking at some mid -30s F. Will be worth watching how this plays out...

Mos output is chiming in at -29 already..so another reason to think -30s are possible!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/...=KMWN&sta=KHIE

But were still a week away, and a lot can change...

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Originally Posted by Bill O

-13F in NYC would be amazing, not to mention a major disaster. I imagine the city would totally shutdown.

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I'm curious as to why NYC would shut down -- I lived in Chicago for quite a while, and -13F degree days in the winter were not unheard of. I would assume if Chi-town can handle it, then so can the Big Apple. They're not used to that kind of cold there, no, but hopefully people would suck it up and wear tons of layers.

Shall be interesting to see what happens, indeed!

When I checked the summit this morning it was at +1F and here at the house in Maine is was -11F. This is probably the coldest we have seen so far this winter. The dog said it was probably too cold for the walk this morning. He was 50% correct so I had to carry him back.

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Originally Posted by TrishandAlex

I'm curious as to why NYC would shut down -- I lived in Chicago for quite a while, and -13F degree days in the winter were not unheard of. I would assume if Chi-town can handle it, then so can the Big Apple. They're not used to that kind of cold there, no, but hopefully people would suck it up and wear tons of layers.

Shall be interesting to see what happens, indeed!

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NYC shuts down when it gets into the single digits. So I can extrapolate that temps below zero would be even worse. The city's infrastructure just isn't (and shouldn't be) built for 1 in 50 year events.

For starters, the commuter rails and elevated subways aren't built for those temps. They struggle with warmer temps. Many water mains would freeze. Again, it becomes a problem in NYC below +10F.

You're right, life would certainly go on, but business activity would be substantially slowed. That's what I mean by shutdown.

Also, just because one city can handle a specific weather event doesn't mean another can. Its an infrastructure issue. Taipei gets hit with several severe typhoons every year. They pick up the branches and go to work the next day. Similar storms like that in the United States destroy cities and take years to recover from. Another good example would be Chicago and heat. Several years ago a heat wave in Chicago killed hundreds of people while similar temps in Dallas are just a daily part of life.

It's interesting to distinguish between what is the psychological part of the adaptation to weather conditions and what is the technological part. It still amazes me to consider that my father worked in an office building in Washington, DC, that had no air-conditioning until the early 1960s. He would wear his "summer suit" to the office--it was a light seersucker fabric--and just go in and do his day of work. Actually, our family home in Arlington, VA, never had air-conditioning either.

Obviously, when you look back anywhere in history beyond the past few decades, you can have the same sense of amazement. Or think about many places in the world in the year 2009 that lack modern conveniences.