Warmest Summer on Record?

[Bill O]

Ryan's comment this morning said that most parts of the country/world are experiencing the warmest summer on record.

Where did that come from? Data, a gut feeling, Fox News Channel? A few hot days at the beginning of August can really change perception but it doesn't make for a whole summer.

I'd like to take a guess that we are no where near the hottest summer on record, which is 1934. Its just a general feeling I have, looking at maps everyday and what not, but I am going to toss this out there. I think that most places in the world will come in at the bottom 50 percentile in terms of heat. For New England this could be one of the cooler summers on record.

Several times this summer I've actually noted how cool it has been. Unlike the media, I have the ability to see past the 2 really hot days that happened last week and look at the entire summer. I can't remember the last time it has been 100 degrees where I live or in New York City. It seems like that would happen every other year back in the 80's and early 90's.

[Bill O]

I just tossed together some data from my modest hill top weather station. 75ft and over 5 years of data!

In this part of the world it appears that this is not the hottest summer on record.

Year June July 90+(Jun/July/Aug)
2003 65.8 72.7 6
2004 67.8 72.1 1
2005 70.7 74.9 9
2006 69.8 76.3 6
2007 69.8 74.0 3
Mean 68.8 74.0 5

I left out August because its only the 16th, and compared to the monthly average the first half of the month is almost always warmer than the last half. I did include 90+ days from August 2007. I've never had any in September, and I don't think I have had any after the 15th of August.

[Knapper]

Where did that come from? Data, a gut feeling, Fox News Channel? A few hot days at the beginning of August can really change perception but it doesn't make for a whole summer.

Since I posted that comment, I can probably answer this for you. That data came from the National Climatological Center, reports from Australian/NZ weather services as well as European agencies, some of my professors at my school, National Weather Service centers I looked at, as well as a few articles in the Bulletin of the American Meteorlogical Society. I never watch Fox news for weather information unless I am aiming for a laugh. Being the summits Staff Meteorologist, all I look at are cold hard numbers and facts, which is what my comment was trying to convey.

I'd like to take a guess that we are no where near the hottest summer on record, which is 1934. Its just a general feeling I have, looking at maps everyday and what not, but I am going to toss this out there. I think that most places in the world will come in at the bottom 50 percentile in terms of heat. For New England this could be one of the cooler summers on record.

Now you are doing what my last paragraph in my comment was poking fun at. You are making wild claims based on one or two months worth of data from one location whether it is KMWN or your own backyard. I even stated that I cannot make any hard statements that this will be a record setting summer whether we are warm or cold. Wait a minute, you don't moonlight for Fox News do you?

[Bill O]

Please, do share some of the data sources. If you want to wait until the end of meteorological summer that's fine with me.

How did the AMS Bulletin draw such a conclusion about the northern hemisphere summer in the middle of July?

I just think that saying "most parts of the country/world are experiencing the warmest summer on record" is entirely too bold and not accurate. For that to be true at least 50% of all northern hemisphere weather stations would have to be recording their warmest summer on record.

[Knapper]

How did the AMS Bulletin draw such a conclusion about the northern hemisphere summer in the middle of July?

BAMS was talking about the southern hemisphere, sorry I didn't say that the first time.

I just think that saying "most parts of the country/world are experiencing the warmest summer on record" is entirely too bold and not accurate. For that to be true at least 50% of all northern hemisphere weather stations would have to be recording their warmest summer on record.

Just to specify to everyone else reading this thread, I said that quote in an trite comment we throw on our homepage, not a scientific journal. If it will put a dying horse to rest, I will say "many parts of the counrty/world have and are experiencing the warmest summer on record so far. But we will wait to see what the results are in one to two months time."

[Bill O]

Fair enough.