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Thread: December snowfall guesses

  1. #1
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    Default December snowfall guesses

    Has it really been 10 days since someone posted to this forum? Just to break the monotony, I'll suggest we start throwing out speculations (aka, wild guesses) for what the snowfall total in December will be.

    I'll say 47.6", which is what excel tells me is the average snowfall per day in december since 1948, times 31.

  2. #2
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    I'll give it an educated guess, let's see if I average all the recorded snowfall from the past days of december, divide that by ,,,,,,,,,factor in global warming,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,is it an el Nina year?,,,,,,,,,,,,start the month off with an arctic blast,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I get,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,43.2 inches.
    Last edited by EricJ; 11-29-2007 at 09:45 PM.
    Joe Dodge,Crystal falls,HoJo's,Tuckermans,Headwall,
    Rockpile,6288.

  3. #3
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    What is the guessing deadline?
    Brad (a 6288 club member)
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    Quote Originally Posted by EricJ
    I'll give it an educated guess, let's see if I average all the recorded snowfall from the past days of december, divide that by ,,,,,,,,,factor in global warming,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,is it an el Nina year?,,,,,,,,,,,,start the month off with an arctic blast,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I get,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,43.2 inches.
    I think you need to give Dr. Gray a call and ask him for help.

    I have a real good feeling about 32" so I'll go with that.
    Steve
    Is there really any BAD weather???

  5. #5
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    I'll say 45"

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    I'm thinking positive... A few big storms. I'll go with an even five feet. That would come out as 60" using my advanced math skills.

    Scot
    MWO (non-meteorologist) Staff

  7. #7
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    I'll say 56.2"

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    Yeah well La Nina didn't pan out for me too well this past October, but I will still guess on the high side with an eyeball level of 71".

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    Default Sunday Night!

    This should make things interesting. I'm going with 77" for the month.


    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
    231 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2007
    . . .
    SUNDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO GET INTERESTING FOR
    US. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING AND
    INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL A BIT
    UNCERTAIN...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT 2 TO 3 DAYS OUT...BUT THE SYSTEM
    DEFINITELY LOOK LIKE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT FOR THE WHOLE
    REGION. AT 00Z MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER LAKE HURON WITH AN OPEN WAVE AT 500MB JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY 12Z MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE...WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING NEAR LONG ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 500MB WAVE CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM SHOULD REALLY START TO SLOW DOWN AND WRAP UP. TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS AN ALL SNOW SYSTEM...EVEN ALONG THE COAST. AT 18Z MONDAY THE SECONDARY LOW WILL HAVE FULLY DEVELOPED NEAR CAPE COD...WITH THE 500MB LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
    SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AT 00Z TUESDAY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY 06Z TUESDAY AS SNOW BEGINS TO END ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A PROLONGED EVENT OVER THE COURSE OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE A BIT PREMATURE...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE 6 TO 10 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AGAIN...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON AMOUNTS.

    Awesome!
    KDT

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    I'll take 30".
    Bill
    Next up: Vermont City Marathon: May, 2011
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