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Thread: East coast blizzard 12/15-16??

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    Default East coast blizzard 12/15-16??

    Disclaimer: What I am posting about at this point is 5 or 6 days away. Things are sure to change over that time period, so don't take this as a 100% sure thing.

    Now that that is out of the way, I can share my excitement about what's in the models for the weekend. I usually don't like to buy into the hype for storms more than 3 or 4 days out, but this one is a little different in my eyes. First all, all the major long range models, at this point, agree that there is going to be a significant coastal storm this weekend for the east coast. The fact that so many models are agreeing the way that they are this far in advance tells me that something significant is going to happen, the particulars will be worked out in the coming days.



    Here was the 06Z run of the GFS, 132 hours out(Sunday at 1 p.m. EST), that I looked at this morning:





    Here is the 12Z run of the GFS, 126 hours out(Sunday at 1 p.m. EST):



    I know that to some of you, those graphics mean almost nothing to you. So, I will try to give meaning to all the graphics I am putting in. What you want to look at in these first two graphics of the GFS model is the low pressure center(denoted by an "L") off the east coast. All the green on the graphics denote the amount of precipitation that would fall in the 6 hours previous to that hour. Anywhere you see blue dashed lines is where snow will probably fall, red dashed lines could be rain.




    Here is the 00Z run of the EMCWF(Euro), 144 hours out(Sunday at 1 p.m. EST):


    Now for this model, commonly known as the Euro or European, focus on the upper right panel. Here once again you can see the low deepening off the coast.




    Here is the 00Z run of the UKMET, 144 hours out(Sunday at 1 p.m. EST):


    Here, take a look at the right panel. You can see the low off the coast. This one shows the high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes very well. I will talk about its significance in a minute.




    And lastly the CMC, 144 hours out(Sunday at 1 p.m. EST):


    Look at the two right panels for this model. The low is shown off the coast in the top right. The bottom right shows 12 hour precip.



    As I already mentioned, I am impressed with how much these models are agreeing. When I started writing this, the 12Z runs of the UKMET, EMCWF, and CMC were not finished yet.

    One of the most notable things about this storm in relation to Mt. Washington, is the rather strong high pressure that will be located to the north of the low as it bombs out off the east coast. The high is forecasted to be a 1024 millibar high, with the low bottoming out around 980 millibar. This is a very significant pressure gradient over a relatively short distance, and it is these sort of situations where the summit receives its highest wind gusts. If things pan out as the models have them now, we are certainly talking sustained winds well over 100 mph. Of course that will all depend on how strong the high and the low get.

    Also if things pan out as forecasted by the models now, there will portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England that will get several feet of snow with blizzard conditions, especially on the back end.

    Once again, I don't mean to hype things up too much. But it certainly will be interesting to keep an eye out on this one over the next few days!
    Last edited by bclark; 12-11-2007 at 12:44 PM.
    Brian Clark

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    http://mountwashington.accuweather.com<---- My blog on AccuWeather.com

    We are....PENN STATE!!

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    Default

    Gee, Couldn't you give us more data to go on?
    Maybe a few more diagrams?
    How about some of this (ZCZC PWMMTRMWN TTAA00 KGYX 111852 METAR KMWN 111852Z 27042KT 100SM FEW/// FEW080 SCT100 OVC180 M09/M12 RMK TPS LWR FEW050 SUN DMLY VSBL NNNN) For every hour from now till next Tuesday? LOL

    There goes my December snow total guess. Thanks for the heads up.



    .
    Last edited by EricJ; 12-11-2007 at 03:08 PM.
    Joe Dodge,Crystal falls,HoJo's,Tuckermans,Headwall,
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    Quote Originally Posted by EricJ
    There goes my December snow total guess. Thanks for the heads up.
    I'll take it. Nor'easters punish the summit of MWN. Meaning, the summit doesn't get much snow during these types of storms. But everyone else does.
    Bill
    Next up: Vermont City Marathon: May, 2011
    EasternLight

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    Talking

    That info is very cool. Thanks for the explanation because you were right. I needed a little help. I hope it pans out. Now im going back to go overthat all one more time.
    Think Snow

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    Thanks for the info Brian.

    Ed

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    Default Let it snow...

    Blizzard.....several feet of snow....mid-atlantic????
    Bring it on!!!!

    Patti

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    Send a little my way would ya???
    Steve
    Is there really any BAD weather???

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    Default Woot!

    Thanks for the info, Brian. I have been hitting the GFS models every six hrs, and they are trending more and more east with the low, meaning more snow chance and less rain chance for the Central NJ area, where I live. Still, I would be happy with a foot of snow.

    I hear that the GFS is too fast, and the Euro (EMCWF) is the model of choice....but who knows this far out. They are still trying to figure if we have to wear hockey skates to work on Thu.

    One question, though: Why do these storms 'bomb'? What is the mechanism that sucks 5% of the air out of all those cubic miles of atmosphere? I have never seen a good explanation.

    Bill

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    Hmmm, my wife is driving right now from Ohio to maine trying to get there by noon on Thursday. It looks like she will skirt south of most of it today and get in before things crank up on Thursday. At least that has been our plan. she said it was "a bit messy" driving yesterday. Hopefully she is settled in with a good fire by the time Brian's storm arrives.
    Brad (a 6288 club member)
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillPatt
    One question, though: Why do these storms 'bomb'? What is the mechanism that sucks 5% of the air out of all those cubic miles of atmosphere? I have never seen a good explanation.

    Bill
    Jet stream dynamics and baroclonicity. Or more simply, variations in temperature.

    This might help:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone

    Forget about this weekend...My area is in for a moderate snowstorm on Thursday.
    Last edited by Bill O; 12-12-2007 at 06:59 AM.
    Bill
    Next up: Vermont City Marathon: May, 2011
    EasternLight

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