Weather concerns of lack of winter

[amfrede]

Seeing as it has been unseasonably warm so far this winter, i was curious what the long term forecasts are predicting? It seems as though its finally cold up there, but almost no snow fall so far in the season.

What do we think snow levels will be like in tucks in late feb. Avalanche dangers at that time? I am planning a trip that is dependent on a good cache of snow in the ravines for late feb and have started to get a little worried.

Any information (i'll even take guesses) would be helpful.

thanks

[AlpineHikerFan71]

Seeing as it has been unseasonably warm so far this winter, i was curious what the long term forecasts are predicting? It seems as though its finally cold up there, but almost no snow fall so far in the season.

What do we think snow levels will be like in tucks in late feb. Avalanche dangers at that time? I am planning a trip that is dependent on a good cache of snow in the ravines for late feb and have started to get a little worried.

Any information (i'll even take guesses) would be helpful.

thanks

I think it is going to be a reversal from last year when it was snowier and colder the first half of winter and warmer the second half. I hope that with it being the warmest Nov. up here in NH that the tables will flip and the jet stream will dig a trough in the northeast and allow that colder air to filter on in. Now all we need is the southern Jet to come up the coast and drop some nice amounts of snow.
But that is my guess and I am a weather nut, not a meteorologist, but maybe you can classify me as an amatuer meteorologist

[afmrintern]

The observers posted a few links and discussions just this past week in the comments archive...just do some digging.

I found this one particularly helpful though:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2742.htm

You can always trust the old farmers almanac as well!

[Bill O]

What do we think snow levels will be like in tucks in late feb. Avalanche dangers at that time? I am planning a trip that is dependent on a good cache of snow in the ravines for late feb and have started to get a little worried.

Any information (i'll even take guesses) would be helpful.

thanks

Honestly, anything beyond a few weeks (I think 5 days) is just a dreamcast. Your best bet now is to look at climatology. There is some skill to the longer range forecasts, but the 2006 hurricane season left a bad taste in my mouth. I certainly wouldn't be making any travel plans for February based any product out there today.

I can't imagine Tuckerman's not being filled in by February. As for avalanche conditions, you can't forecast that like weather. Snow conditions are assessed during the morning and a forecast for the coming day is made at that time.

[amfrede]

My major concern really is avalanche and depth of snow. Typically avalanches dangers tend to be low in late feb as the snow pack has had ample time to thicken and pack good and hard. But with warm ground this late in the season and no snow pack now, what do you think (typically, as i know this is subject to many other variables) these average avalanche dangers will be around that time? I'm sure tucks will be filling up by the end of feb, but i was just curious what we all thought the conditions of the snow would be.

[afmrintern]

My major concern really is avalanche and depth of snow. Typically avalanches dangers tend to be low in late feb as the snow pack has had ample time to thicken and pack good and hard.

I don't think you initial assessment of this is the most sound. Avalanche danger is often high in February because of the transport of new snow on often hard pack causing near daily windslab growth. New snow in february doesn't consolodate well...

I doubt the late start will affect the avalanche season in February much. The law of averages will catch up.

Besides, avalache danger is as much (sorry moreso) a product of the day before as the season before. It's good to have your avi skills in order, read the report the morning of, and dig yourself a pit.

[Bill O]

I don't think you initial assessment of this is the most sound. Avalanche danger is often high in February because of the transport of new snow on often hard pack causing near daily windslab growth. New snow in february doesn't consolodate well...

I doubt the late start will affect the avalanche season in February much. The law of averages will catch up.

Besides, avalache danger is as much (sorry moreso) a product of the day before as the season before. It's good to have your avi skills in order, read the report the morning of, and dig yourself a pit.

Well said, I totally agree. At this point you should probably review your avalanche safety text books. Maybe we need to start with the basics in another avalanche primer thread.

[amfrede]

For this area i am going off of old reports from 5-10 years past for this time of year. I'm looking at what has happened in the past on the mountain as far as what window low avalanche dangers permit the last week of february. Some years they are high, others low. I am just putting an average together to determine the window of my trip. Obviously i'm not taking these too much to heart, as things will clear up a lot the closer that week gets. ( and of course nothing beats the information you get from actually getting there and observing the snow) Im just curious what we all think will happen because of recent weather this season.

That being said, i always like more information on snow conditions, avalanche reports, basic/intermediate/advance snow skills, and whatnot. A good climber is always learning and always has another question.

[Bill O]

Consider today the starting point for snow accumulation. Anything prior to today either has melted or has frozen into a solid bomb-proof mass of snow/ice.