Weather for STP crossing fingers?

[freehill]

I know it is only Wednesday but here is a Snippet from todays
-Forecast Discussion-
"forecast into Saturday for Seek the Peak. The large area of upper level low pressure that formed a closed low early this week will begin to retreat northward becoming an upper level trough. Friday into Saturday morning, the flow looks to become zonal and a brief surface high will build for Friday. During the day on Saturday though, the trough dips back in setting up southwesterly flow and a low to the north and to the south will generate instability which will bring a chance of showers and afternoon thunderstorms with frontal passage poised for the afternoon/evening of Saturday. So rain gear should be packed since the chance of showers in the morning is 30-50 percent and the afternoon is looking like 40-60 percent as of now. Stay tuned to the next few days as models become more refined."
As always Bring Rain Gear.....
Got to love weather, for weather or not.....
STP!
Rick

[mary]

thanks freehill....if you have the time please update the weather if you can....this is really helpful and were keeping our fingers crossed as well....

[Steve M]

The word from the weather room up here is Saturday is not looking as good as Friday but if you get out early your chances are going to be better than later.

[Knapper]

Mary, since I am responsible for that forecast discussion from yesterday, I will update todays even though it is my day off. But since I will be hiking STP 08, I will be keeping a close eye on things. The upper level low that has sat over the Great Lakes region the past week or so will continue northward and will become an upper level trough that will persist over New England for the next 5 days and beyond. This will continue to cycle in waves of energy that will produce rain, heavy at times and thunderstorms. A surface low will drag a cold front slowly across the region today into tonight continuing rain showers until it fully passes tomorrow (Friday) morning. This will keep things unsettled and foggy on the summits until Friday afternoon when drier air will work in behind the front. Friday night into Saturday morning will see summits become mostly in the clear under partly cloudy skies. Saturday will start out nice but as the day progresses, a low to the north will swing another cold front in. This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon into the overnight hours and beyond. This front looks similar to todays, another slow mover and soaker. Humidity’s will also be increasing during the day on Saturday. Humidity’s are not as big of a deal on the higher terrain but will make things muggy on the hike down, depending on when you descent. The summits will probably see in and out of the clouds in the afternoon as a result. Highs are projected to be upper 50s to lower 60s still with early morning temperatures at mid to upper 40s. As for percentages for showers, 20-40 percent morning, 35-55 percent around midday, 40-60 percent in the afternoon. So, if I were to give advice, travel early, pack rain gear, and leave the cotton clothing at home. I will try to update tomorrow as time allows and I will be handing out the goodie bags at check in at Flatbreads if anyone else has any last minute questions.

[Bill O]

Thanks for the update Ryan, looks manageable right now.

I've been in VT since Tuesday afternoon and the weather has been horrible. I'm not sure it could be any worse in July. The good thing about extreme weather is that it can't last forever.

[KD Talbot]

We've scaled back any ambitious plans for Saturday's hike, just hope to summit and retreat. The way the storms have been for the last couple of days you could drown out there!

The following is ALL Worst Case Scenario:

Just a word of caution for those who may be new to above tree-line travel. Besides all the usual things to worry about as far as rain/wind=hypothermia, lightning=death, etc. be aware that the rocks above tree-line are covered in Map Lichen that is as slick as ice when wet. A bad tumble could mean the risk of serious injury and the wait for rescue could give hypothermia a good foothold.

Be careful out there. Nobody should be ashamed or feel defeated if they turn around on this hike. The mountain will be there another day!

Anyone thinking of Huntington Ravine Trail should seriously consider putting that off for better weather. If you get caught in rain on the slick rocks it could be life threatening and retreat is not really an option once you're above the talus fields.

Just my two cents worth. Have fun and be safe!

KDT

[Knapper]

So here is my last forecast before Seek the Peak ’08 tomorrow since I will be hiking up tonight. The official weather discussion on our website will have a discussion as well since Saturday is now inside the 36 hour window. But I figured I have been predicting Saturday since Monday either on our homepage or in these forums so why stop now. So here you go:

A cold front passed last night and is now slowly moving east of the region for today. Brief high pressure is building in behind the front along with drier air. But before this works in, a weak secondary low may bring a few clouds and possibly showers today. But I suspect most of this activity should stay further east since that is where instability is showing up the best in the models this morning. This afternoon, the summits will trend towards clearing both on and above. Overnight, this clearing trend will continue into tomorrow morning. But all good things must come to an end as an upper level long wave trough reforms into a closed low over the Hudson Bay keeping the Northeast in a southwesterly flow. A warm front will move up through the region on Saturday afternoon from a weak low moving up. This will bring increased clouds through the day as well as bring about the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Broken down into percentages for probability of precip.: 10-30 percent in the morning, 20-40 percent for midday, 40-60 percent in the afternoon. So for a breakdown: Today: In and out of the clouds under partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms, especially early then trending towards clearing in the late afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s with winds mostly west at 25-40 mph decreasing to 15-30 mph w/ higher gusts early. Overnight, summits in the clear under mostly clear skies with lows in the upper 40s and west winds 15-30 mph. Tomorrow, the summits will start in the clear under mostly clear skies but will start to be in and out of the clouds under increasingly cloudy skies with a chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs will reach the upper 50s with winds WSW at 15-30 mph. Convective cells today and tomorrow have the potential for heavy rain, damaging winds, hail and frequent lightning.

So there you go. Like I have been saying this entire week, if I were to give advice, travel early, pack rain gear, and leave the cotton clothing at home. If anyone has any last minute questions, I will be handing out the goodie bags at check in at Flatbreads tonight so feel free to ask any questions you might have. Just hike safe and follow the advice that has been floating around these forums it could mean the difference between a safe, fun hike and one where help needs to be called in.

[Steve M]

Ryan,

Make sure you leave a goodie bag out for me and if you want you can hike it up with you when you come.

[Charlie]

Ryan,

Make sure you leave a goodie bag out for me and if you want you can hike it up with you when you come.

hay steve i was in your kitchen to day but you were not there you were out playing on the rocks
i came up to get some of the first cookies ,you forgot to leave them out .

did you see my note on the fridge

i hope you dont mind i started taking apart the stove

sorry i missed you i dont think i will make it to the top tomorrow but i will try

[Brad]

Charlie, it looks like you made it up okay and found a way to connect. Back to my packing and time to put the boat away till Sunday.