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Thread: Major coldwave around Jan 17?

  1. #21
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    I have seen a forecast now for Thursday night of -12F and another at -19F. Just 2 days ago the forecast was for around zero. When is it too cold to snow?
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  2. #22
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    Saranac Lake is showing -30F Friday morning. I wonder what a temperature of -30 at SL translates to at the extreme points around the state. The isolated, high altitude sinks.
    Bill
    Next up: Vermont City Marathon: May, 2011
    EasternLight

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill O View Post
    Saranac Lake is showing -30F Friday morning. I wonder what a temperature of -30 at SL translates to at the extreme points around the state. The isolated, high altitude sinks.
    Do you know of any particular spots that might be of interest? I looked up the coldest readings from NY to see if any spots showed up consistently. I'm not sure if they still make readings at some of these places, though:

    -52: Stillwater Reservoir, 2/9/1934
    -52: Old Forge, 2/18/1979
    -48: Mckeever, 2/9/1934
    -47: North Lake, 2/9/1934
    -47: Stillwater Reservoir, 2/16/1943
    -46: Stillwater reservoir, 12/29/1933
    -46: Stillwater Reservoir, 12/20/1942
    -46: Gabriels, 12/21/1942
    -45: Franklinville, 2/9/1934
    -45: Wanakena Ranger School, 2/9/1934
    -45: Gouverneur, 1/4/1981
    -45: Big Moose, 1/16/1994

    I'm sure there are others, since it looks like not all data was in there. For instance, Saranac Lake is only shown for 1948-1966, over which time their minimum was -40F.

  4. #24
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    Looks like readings are still taken at Stillwater Reservoir and Old Forge but the Old Forge ones rarely get called into the NWS, so we may not know their readings til the send in their report and it gets posted online (which will be months from now).

  5. #25
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    Looks like the pattern must be shifting. Colder forecast than originally predicted up north but considerably warmer than the forecast from a few days ago for southern NE (or RI at least). The original forecast was for as low as -12 with highs in the single digits. Now the low is showing as +3 for Thursday night (coldest shown in the next few days) and nothing lower for a daily high than +15. Has the whole system just shifted further north?
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  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by treant985 View Post
    Looks like readings are still taken at Stillwater Reservoir and Old Forge but the Old Forge ones rarely get called into the NWS, so we may not know their readings til the send in their report and it gets posted online (which will be months from now).
    What about comparing some of those other locations to SLK for a few cold days in the past. See what the differences were.
    Bill
    Next up: Vermont City Marathon: May, 2011
    EasternLight

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtruman View Post
    Looks like the pattern must be shifting. Colder forecast than originally predicted up north but considerably warmer than the forecast from a few days ago for southern NE (or RI at least). The original forecast was for as low as -12 with highs in the single digits. Now the low is showing as +3 for Thursday night (coldest shown in the next few days) and nothing lower for a daily high than +15. Has the whole system just shifted further north?
    I haven't seen a consistent forecast for the same location for more than six hours. It has certainly warmed in our area as well, but if the right microscale conditions develop all bets are off. If you get clear skies and the winds go calm all bets are off, temps could go much lower than forecast.

    The same doesn't apply to the summit of MWN. It is going to be cold there regardless of winds and sky cover. Looks like a solid chance of going below -30F on the summit.
    Bill
    Next up: Vermont City Marathon: May, 2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill O View Post
    If you get clear skies and the winds go calm all bets are off, temps could go much lower than forecast.
    We've already seen this some in MN. The forecasts for even the coldest spots (Embarrass, Babbitt, Ely, International Falls) have been around -30F for the last two days. Granted, the point forecasts aren't that great for these extreme spots, but almost all of them hit -40F or colder. Embarrass was -47F this morning and still wasn't the coldest (Babbitt hit -48F).

    It'll be really interesting to see what happens tonight and Thursday night. Maybe we'll see our first -50F in a few years.

  9. #29
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    Web sites list us at -13 F right now. On my son's outside thermometer mounted near the house it is -8 F.
    Brad (a 6288 club member)
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  10. #30
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    My weather station in VT just spiked down to -13. Sitting at the lows of the day.
    Bill
    Next up: Vermont City Marathon: May, 2011
    EasternLight

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