STP 10 Forecast

[mtruman]

OK, I know it is still 8 days till Seek the Peak and that it's pretty much impossible to predict the conditions on Mount Washington 8 hours ahead, let alone over a week. Any brave observers want to take a shot at what the long range trend is looking like though? We all promise not to hold you to it

[BanjoChris]

Accue Weather is currently predicting partly sunny!!! Dare to dream!!!!

http://www.accuweather.com/us/nh/mou...cast-month.asp

Back in 2007 I was lucky enough to summit on a day with 70 degree summit temperatures and almost no clouds. Just a hint of haze kept us from seeing the ocean.

Chris

[Knapper]

I am not prepared enough to forecast out that far but so far the models are keeping the tropical air mass in place which means it won't take much for the threat of showers and thunderstorms to move their way into the forecast language similar to what has been the entire month of July more or less. I will keep people posted if this a thread of interest. If not, I will start putting the STP forecast in the discussion starting Thursday morning when I am back on the summit even though it is outside of the 36 hour window.

But if you are going to use a purely numerical forecasting model like accuweather produces, at least use the summit forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/us/nh/mt....cast-month.asp The link BanjoChris linked to is for Mt Washington, NH but that numerical model is more inline and interpreted using elevations closer to the base and not the summit. You can also keep an eye on NWS Gray, ME who is a bit more accurate for long term forecasting because there is at least some minimal human adjustments on the numbers: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...6&lon=-71.3047

But looking at all the models, if everything holds as is, my prediction that I made last month of us beating or tying the summits all time record high of 72F (from the past 78 yrs of our existence) is looking very realistic. Lets hope this isn't true and things adjust lower, mainly so I don't have to deal with the paper work with NCDC

[BanjoChris]

Knapper,

Thanks much...my meteorological expertise can be summed up by telling you all that...as I look out my window...it's bright outside...

Chris

[mtruman]

Thanks Ryan. Sounds like we'll be planning an early start again (both to beat the crowds and give us some leeway with the potential afternoon storms). I thought from everything I'd seen that it looked like the current pattern wasn't moving any time soon (this is of course not due to my meteorological ability since that is roughly equivalent to what Chris professes). Thanks for the link to the Accuweather summit forecast. I wasn't aware that this existed and always look at just the OBS forecasts (which are of course short term but I'm sure more accurate ). Look forward to the end of week forecasts and an assurance that we won't be seeing any new record high temps. Cold front, cold front, cold front... (doesn't hurt to hope)

[Snow Miser]

Thanks Ryan for both your current forecast, and for the ones you will be providing leading up to 7/24. I too like the Accuweather link you provided. Now we just sit an hope for the best. And I'm with Mark in saying, Cold front, please, pretty please.

[Bill O]

...... Thanks for the link to the Accuweather summit forecast. I wasn't aware that this existed and always look at just the OBS forecasts (which are of course short term but I'm sure more accurate ). (doesn't hurt to hope)

As Ryan has mentioned in other threads, the Accuweather forecast is purely numerical. There are no humans involved and its based both on forecast models and climatology (not that humans are any more accurate at that time frame). At two weeks out they are a bit of a novelty, but may provide some insights into trends. Before a marathon I tend to find the two week forecast provides more stress than relief and has been off by 30 degrees in major cities.

[Charlie]

well lets just hope its a little cool with low humidity

[David]

If you go to www.weather.com (weather channel) and plug in North Conway and 10 day forecast it shows a big unimpeded sunshine for See the Peak!

[BanjoChris]

Current National Weather Service Forecast...waiting patiently for the Obs forecast:

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.