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Thread: STP 10 Forecast

  1. #1
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    Default STP 10 Forecast

    OK, I know it is still 8 days till Seek the Peak and that it's pretty much impossible to predict the conditions on Mount Washington 8 hours ahead, let alone over a week. Any brave observers want to take a shot at what the long range trend is looking like though? We all promise not to hold you to it
    Mark

    Keep close to Nature's heart...
    and break clear away, once in awhile,
    and climb a mountain or spend a week in the woods.
    Wash your spirit clean. - John Muir


    Hiking photos: http://picasaweb.google.com/mtruman42
    Hiking Blog: http://theramblingsblog.blogspot.com/
    Seek the 2011 Peak page: Mark Truman's Pledge Page

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    Accue Weather is currently predicting partly sunny!!! Dare to dream!!!!

    http://www.accuweather.com/us/nh/mou...cast-month.asp

    Back in 2007 I was lucky enough to summit on a day with 70 degree summit temperatures and almost no clouds. Just a hint of haze kept us from seeing the ocean.

    Chris

  3. #3
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    I am not prepared enough to forecast out that far but so far the models are keeping the tropical air mass in place which means it won't take much for the threat of showers and thunderstorms to move their way into the forecast language similar to what has been the entire month of July more or less. I will keep people posted if this a thread of interest. If not, I will start putting the STP forecast in the discussion starting Thursday morning when I am back on the summit even though it is outside of the 36 hour window.

    But if you are going to use a purely numerical forecasting model like accuweather produces, at least use the summit forecast: http://www.accuweather.com/us/nh/mt....cast-month.asp The link BanjoChris linked to is for Mt Washington, NH but that numerical model is more inline and interpreted using elevations closer to the base and not the summit. You can also keep an eye on NWS Gray, ME who is a bit more accurate for long term forecasting because there is at least some minimal human adjustments on the numbers: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...6&lon=-71.3047

    But looking at all the models, if everything holds as is, my prediction that I made last month of us beating or tying the summits all time record high of 72F (from the past 78 yrs of our existence) is looking very realistic. Lets hope this isn't true and things adjust lower, mainly so I don't have to deal with the paper work with NCDC
    Ryan Knapp
    Staff Meteorologist/Night Observer, KMWN (Mt Washington Obs., NH)

  4. The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to Knapper For This Useful Post:

    BanjoChris (07-16-2010), BAXTERCA2 (07-19-2010), Charlie (07-17-2010), CHRIS (07-16-2010), mtruman (07-16-2010), Snow Miser (07-16-2010)

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    Knapper,

    Thanks much...my meteorological expertise can be summed up by telling you all that...as I look out my window...it's bright outside...

    Chris

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    Thanks Ryan. Sounds like we'll be planning an early start again (both to beat the crowds and give us some leeway with the potential afternoon storms). I thought from everything I'd seen that it looked like the current pattern wasn't moving any time soon (this is of course not due to my meteorological ability since that is roughly equivalent to what Chris professes). Thanks for the link to the Accuweather summit forecast. I wasn't aware that this existed and always look at just the OBS forecasts (which are of course short term but I'm sure more accurate ). Look forward to the end of week forecasts and an assurance that we won't be seeing any new record high temps. Cold front, cold front, cold front... (doesn't hurt to hope)
    Mark

    Keep close to Nature's heart...
    and break clear away, once in awhile,
    and climb a mountain or spend a week in the woods.
    Wash your spirit clean. - John Muir


    Hiking photos: http://picasaweb.google.com/mtruman42
    Hiking Blog: http://theramblingsblog.blogspot.com/
    Seek the 2011 Peak page: Mark Truman's Pledge Page

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    Thanks Ryan for both your current forecast, and for the ones you will be providing leading up to 7/24. I too like the Accuweather link you provided. Now we just sit an hope for the best. And I'm with Mark in saying, Cold front, please, pretty please.
    Bob

    I never want to see a day
    That's over forty degrees
    I'd rather have it thirty,
    Twenty, ten, five and let it freeeeEEEEEEeeze!

    My Seek the Peak 2014 Photo Set

  8. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtruman View Post
    ...... Thanks for the link to the Accuweather summit forecast. I wasn't aware that this existed and always look at just the OBS forecasts (which are of course short term but I'm sure more accurate ). (doesn't hurt to hope)
    As Ryan has mentioned in other threads, the Accuweather forecast is purely numerical. There are no humans involved and its based both on forecast models and climatology (not that humans are any more accurate at that time frame). At two weeks out they are a bit of a novelty, but may provide some insights into trends. Before a marathon I tend to find the two week forecast provides more stress than relief and has been off by 30 degrees in major cities.
    Bill
    Next up: Vermont City Marathon: May, 2011
    EasternLight

  9. #8
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    well lets just hope its a little cool with low humidity
    i am a Summit Club member
    http://public.fotki.com/hvachawk/new pictures and videos

    If your not a OBS member yet then what are you waiting for

  10. #9
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    If you go to www.weather.com (weather channel) and plug in North Conway and 10 day forecast it shows a big unimpeded sunshine for See the Peak!

  11. #10
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    Current National Weather Service Forecast...waiting patiently for the Obs forecast:

    Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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