January Wind Speed Contest

[Brad]

The Rules Committee is meeting right now for the January Wind Speed Contest. Watch for updates and make sure you get your guess(ES) in by January 15th at midnight. Guesses submitted before January 1st will not count because you do not know what the contest will be or the rules around it. So, just stay put for a few days.

This contest will be like none ever done before - here on the forum. This is why the Rules Committee has been working to define things precisely so we will have a clear winner. It may take several days to write the rules down - in between snow shoveling - shoveling into the precip can is not allowed.

[Brad]

January Wind Speed Contest

Rules:

1. The source of all real data is the Obs F6 report as reported on the web site at http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/2011/01.pdf
2. The time period for data is for the whole month of January 2011
3. Each entry MUST contain two (2) answers to be valid. Invalid entries or answers will not be added to the list of entries till they are corrected or completed
4. Entries can not be submitted until 00:00:01 on 01/01/11 to be considered
5. All entries must be submitted by January 15th at midnight (actually by 11:59:59 PM)
6. Answer #1 - is the AVERAGE WIND SPEED for the month to the one tenth of a MPH. Entries will be rounded to the nearest tenth for you if you do not know how to do that correctly.
7. Duplicates ARE ALLOWED for the AVERAGE WIND SPEED for the month
8. Answer #2 - Is the FASTEST WIND SPEED for the month
9. The FASTEST WIND SPEED must be to whole MPHs (no tenths because the F6 does not report in tenths for some reason - maybe due to poor math skills)
10. The FASTEST WIND SPEED does NOT allow duplicates. The entry posted and time stamped first for a specific fastest speed is the only valid entry for that speed.
11. The WINNER is the entry with the correct AVERAGE wind speed.
12. If there are multiple entries for the winning average wind speed, the winner is determined by the FASTEST wind speed entry closest to the correct answer and DOES NOT exceed the correct answer.
13. If a winner is still not determined by these complex, convoluted rules, I win.
14. As is normally assumed in these contests, anyone living to the north or west of the mountain who has the ability to generate sufficient wind to alter the results is not allowed to enter
15. Anyone tall enough to stand and block the anemometer on the tower top should quit hiking and sign up for pro basketball
16. Anyone who knows the answer beforehand should be quiet and submit a wrong answer anyway.
17. The winner gets to go to the closest store of the new Mt Washington Observatory partner, which is replacing LL Bean as of January 1st, and buy something they always wanted to treat themselves for such a fantastic achievement.

Let the games begin and entries start to flow on January 1st.

[mtruman]

Holy cow - that's some big set-o-rules you got there! Quite the prize too!

I already have my numbers formulated, but of course not wanting to violate rule 4 I will delay my entry for exactly 3 days, 5 hours, 57 minutes and 12 seconds. Damn, that's already wrong. Didn't hit POST quick enough.

[Snow Miser]

I've got my numbers formulated too! Come on 00:00:01 on 01/01/11.

[Brad]

Folks should have plenty of time to become a Rules Lawyer, do their research, define the strategy, and then come up with their guesses. This is serious business and takes a bit of time.

I have not gotten my answers yet. But, maybe I can bank on rule # 13.

[BAXTERCA2]

I'll play but, I'm not sure I agree with rule #13.

[Brad]

I'll play but, I'm not sure I agree with rule #13.

There were 2 situations which I was trying to cover in the rules and I missed one of them in the set of rules. The other I figured had a very slim chance of happening - so I made rule #13.

I will go back to the rules committee tomorrow when we are rested and see how to alter the rules to cover those 2 cases better.....

[Brad]

January Wind Speed Contest

Rules (Revision 1):

1. The source of all real data is the Obs F6 report as reported on the web site at http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/f6/2011/01.pdf
2. The time period for data is for the whole month of January 2011
3. Each entry MUST contain two (2) answers to be valid. Invalid entries or answers will not be added to the list of entries till they are corrected or completed
4. Entries can not be submitted until 00:00:01 on 01/01/11 to be considered
5. All entries must be submitted by January 15th at midnight (actually by 11:59:59 PM)
6. Answer #1 - is the AVERAGE WIND SPEED for the month to the one tenth of a MPH. Entries will be rounded to the nearest tenth for you if you do not know how to do that correctly.
7. Duplicates ARE ALLOWED for the AVERAGE WIND SPEED for the month
8. Answer #2 - Is the FASTEST WIND SPEED for the month
9. The FASTEST WIND SPEED must be to whole MPHs (no tenths because the F6 does not report in tenths for some reason - maybe due to poor math skills)
10. The FASTEST WIND SPEED does NOT allow duplicates. The entry posted and time stamped first for a specific fastest speed is the only valid entry for that speed.
11. The WINNER is the entry with the correct AVERAGE wind speed.
12. If there are multiple entries for the winning AVERAGE wind speed, the winner is determined by the FASTEST wind speed entry closest to the correct answer. This means the closest could exceed the correct answer. If there is a tie, then the earliest time stamp for the entry wins.
13. If the correct AVERAGE wind speed is not guessed by anyone, then the next lower entry is the winner - unless there are multiples at that answer. In the case of multiples, the above tie-breaker rules for the FASTEST wind speed takes over. If there is no lower AVERAGE wind speed entry, then the lowest one entered wins or at least goes into the tie-breaker using the FASTEST wind speed if there are multiples.
14. As is normally assumed in these contests, anyone living to the north or west of the mountain who has the ability to generate sufficient wind to alter the results is not allowed to enter
15. Anyone tall enough to stand and block the anemometer on the tower top should quit hiking and sign up for pro basketball
16. Anyone who knows the answer beforehand should be quiet and submit a wrong answer anyway.
17. The winner gets to go to the closest store of the new Mt Washington Observatory partner, which is replacing LL Bean as of January 1st, and buy something they always wanted to treat themselves for such a fantastic achievement.

These revisions are to cover the 2 outstanding issues with the convoluted rules. Plus, it means I have to do my own guessing. Oh well...

[mtruman]

I will go back to the rules committee tomorrow when we are rested and see how to alter the rules to cover those 2 cases better.....

Just out of curiosity is there anyone on the rules committee besides you and Marty?

[Brad]

Just out of curiosity is there anyone on the rules committee besides you and Marty?

How did you figure out that Marty was on the committee? I kept on saying we need to keep things simple for you all. He wanted to make sure you jumped through hoops to win this one.