It varies from day to day and system to system. Like I mentioned, NWS in Gray, ME is forecasting for most of NH and a significant portion of the western part of ME. Anyone living in these areas knows how varied the weather can be in a very short range. So to put out one product covering such a large area for two sets of elevations (0-4000ft and 4000+ft), its tough to be spot on all the time. And, when it comes to winter summit weather, I agree with them that it's better to side on the worst case scenario and have people be overly prepared only to be disappointed. And like I mentioned, between our forecast and NWS's, you can usually get a fairly good idea as to what to expect and prepare. But ultimately, it comes down to reality versus a forecast. Not matter what we or NWS or others say, it comes down to the end user to make descisions prior to their trip and then on the fly and adjust accordingly. Things can change quickly and they don't always go as we forecasted or as you plan. The key is to do as you say, turn back if things are worse than forecasted and if things are better, continue on and poke fun at the forecast after the fact. All any of us can do is try.
Originally Posted by bikehikeskifish
Staff Meteorologist/Night Observer, KMWN (Mt Washington Obs., NH)