Observer Comments
November 2009
 "see caption below")
Now that's a good looking Hays Chart!
Good things come to those who wait!
or
Be careful what you wish for...
All of you avid followers of our observer comments are probably intimately familiar with the tame November we've been experiencing on the summit. Every day since November 8th has seen temperatures averaging above normal, and up until yesterday, we had experienced a mere 4.3" of snow. This past Wednesday (November 25th), we were able to ride all the way to the summit in the 4-wheel drive van without the use of chains! We all wondered--when would winter arrive?
Arrive it would, and it was revealing its planned return in the forecast models since early this week. On Wednesday, the long range models indicated "94 kts" for wind speed on Saturday, which is approx. 108 mph. Generally, when winds are sustained this high, gusts are much higher, potentially reaching 120-130 mph. To make a long story short, these numbers were very exciting, but also taken with a grain of salt, as a lot can change in four days.
Change they did. As Thursday progressed, the shorter-range models began to pick up on the potential monster storm, but forecasted wind speeds took a steady downward trend with each model run, which disappointed us all. However, snowfall potential looked excellent-Stacey was fully expecting at least 10", while I took a more conservative view, figuring about 6-8". Either way, it looked to at least double what November had brought us to that point.
On Friday, the wind speed forecast numbers took a bit of an upward trend, but were still nowhere near the impressive numbers we had seen on Wednesday. The snow was a different story, however. Moderate to heavy snow fell all day, dumping 14" by 7 p.m. and another 5" or so by 1 a.m., with snow still falling. I was forced to swallow a bit of my forecasting pride, as I vastly underestimated the snowfall potential of this system. But after this unexpected surprise, we were all hoping the winds would give us a nice surprise as well.
About midnight, I took a look at the latest model runs, and could not believe my eyes. Before me were the highest wind speed forecast numbers I had seen since beginning work here in August 2008. Both models were in excellent agreement that just before daybreak, winds would max out around 105 mph!
From midnight to 3 a.m., winds averaged about 65 mph and gusted into the 90s. Suddenly, just after 3 a.m., a switch was flipped somewhere in the atmosphere, as wind speeds catapulted into the 80s, and gusted to 118 mph! I was trying to get my work done, but it just was not happening. I was listening to the howl of the winds (which morphed into an earsplitting roar), feeling the floor shake beneath me, and experiencing the transformation of snow flakes and rime feathers outside into tiny darts traveling at super-hurricane speeds and smashing into the weather room windows.
Because of the northwest direction of the flow, the observation deck was feeling the full force of these winds. Inside the protective walls of the tower, one could hear the ominous growl, but opening the tower door revealed a roar louder than anything I have ever experienced in my lifetime. Combine that with the dark of night and visibility of about 25 feet, and it was truly something special to experience!
Around 5:20 a.m., Steve and Mary Ellen had awoken, and the morning transformed into a Hays Chart-watching session. We were all getting excited about each gust and hoping it would be surpassed by the next. Just before 5:25 a.m., the winds lulled to about 90 mph, then unexpectedly, an incredible roar jolted the building. I bolted to the Hays Chart to discover a reading of 9.8" (nearly off the chart), which converted to 137.4 mph! For the second time during the evening, I couldn't believe my eyes! In the picture above, note the 5-6 AM hour (at the bottom of the chart). You can clearly see the 137 gust, which is the line that extends furthest away from the center, nearly extending to the edge of the chart.
Amidst these formidable winds, 24.4" of snow fell on Friday and early Saturday, and has been blown about all day. By now, much of it has made its way down the summit cone and into Tuckerman Ravine.
As of this time, it looks like the 137 gust will be our peak for this storm. It is a personal record for Steve, Mary Ellen, and I, and also Mt. Washington's peak for 2009 thus far (defeating the previous peak of 132 mph on New Year's Day). In fact, it is the strongest wind gust since a crest of 145 mph on March 21st, 2008.
So when I venture to the top of the tower to de-ice and hold on for dear life as I swing a crow bar and dodge the flying pieces of rime, or trudge through 4 foot drifts to get the precipitation can while 100 mph winds are shoving at me, or attempt to hold up a felt board while clinging to the A-Frame to try and determine whether or not it is snowing, I ask myself...would I have it any other way?
The answer...not in a million years!
Mike Carmon – Staff Meteorologist
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Tip-Top in the Snow
Conditions on the summit have certainly changed in the past 24 hours as a strong low pressure system has entered the region. The past few days we have been following this storm move up the Atlantic coast with the hopes of it bringing cold temperatures, accumulating snow, and high winds to the summit. November temperatures on Mount Washington have been above average with precipitation mainly rain so, wintry conditions are welcome and have been for a while. As the storm approached this morning, snow began to fall at around 8:30 am. It quickly began accumulating in the morning hours covering the summit landscape. As this storm continues to move through the region today, it is expected to dump quite a bit more snow on the summit.
Along with this storm, winds are expected to pick up over night tonight reaching hurricane force in the early morning hours. Forecasting models are predicting wind gusts to reach and exceed 100mph tomorrow. (Since the beginning of my internship in August, I have yet to see a wind gust reach the century mark. I am hoping tomorrow will be the day!) Although these high winds will be exciting, dangerous white-out conditions and wind chill temperatures reaching 20 below are expected. Lingering precipitation and fresh snow fall on the ground plus strong winds, tonight and tomorrow, will create low visibility, blowing snow, and high snow drifts which will certainly become a major issue.
Temperatures look to remain cold long after this storm is gone leaving the summit covered in the white of winter. Shift change on Wednesday could be an interesting one; will we see the first snow tractor rides of the season?!
Mary Ellen Dunn – Summit Intern
 "see caption below")
I think that says it all!
Warning: The following passage may, in fact, become quite sappy.
Thanksgiving is a national holiday. When we're small, it means eating a lot of food at the kid's table, and running under-foot while dads, uncles, and grandpa's watch football and drink beer and while moms, aunts, and grandma's putter around in the kitchen. As we entered kindergarten, we made paper turkeys and paper pilgrim hats and learned that it was a celebration of a new beginning. In middle school we were giving thanks to be out of school again in November (teacher's conventions or parent teacher conferences took up two days as well). In high school we juggled our family obligations and maybe shared a Thanksgiving or two meeting the family members of the boy or girl we loved. In college we packed up our dirty laundry, grateful to escape the pressures and awful dining hall food of school and maybe see some siblings. Somewhere between my second year of college and now, Thanksgiving transformed into valuable time I get to spend with my family.
Most of my family is scattered around the country: Ohio, Vegas, New Jersey, Virginia. It's a lucky day when my brother, sister, and I are all in the same place at the same time. It's happened twice in the past five years. The people I see most often are the people with whom I work. As Deb would say, they are my mountain family. Even though my mom, sister and brother in law are in Nevada, my brother, Nonna, and Uncle Larry are in Ohio, my dad, step-mom, and step-sister (and all my cousins!) are in NJ, I still feel like I'm spending Thanksgiving with family. I'd just like to thank Steve's family, Mary Ellen's family, Mike's family, and Rob's family. I know how much of a sacrifice it is for you to let your loved ones spend holidays on the summit.
Sure, the day is punctuated by weather observations, painting, forecasting, and pesky server issues, but Mary Ellen and I have spent a decent amount of time making festive hand-turkeys. Rob has been diligent in the kitchen (and by golly gee, it smells amazing when we venture downstairs), and even Marty is eager for the turkey! We'll be inviting Mike P. from State Park to share the holiday with us. I'm sure the evening will end like most Thanksgiving, with belts being loosened and everyone drifting into a delicious turkey-induced doze.
Stacey Kawecki – Observer and Meteorologist
As many of you already know, as summit staff we essentially work a week-on week-off schedule with Wednesday being the traditional shift change day. Something I noticed very quickly when I started working on the summit as an intern in January 2006 (has it really almost been 4 years?!) is that this schedule makes time fly by. I think it was former observer, 'Holywood' Jim Salge, that once said something like 'the days and weeks don't go by particularly fast, but the months sure do'. I have certainly found this to be true.
So as I get ready to end another shift on the mountain today, it is almost the end of November. I come up for my next shift on December 2, and when I go down on the 9th I am taking a shift of vacation. This means I won't be back on the summit again until December 30 and all of sudden it's 2010! This will be the second year in a row that I have had the opportunity to ring in the New Year on the highest peak in then northeast.
This year, we are actually giving members the opportunity to do the same through an exclusive New Year's Eve Winter EduTrip. Director of Education Michelle Cruz will lead the trip, accompanied by her fiancé Dave Lottmann, a very experienced mountaineer and climbing guide. The educational focus of the trip will be on the work we do here on the summit and the extreme weather that makes Mount Washington famous. Participants will be transported up the mountain on the first day and down on the second in our
I realize that, so far, this is no different from any of our EduTrips, but I haven't gotten to the best part yet.
Our volunteers that week are Chef John Bauhs and Ed O'Malley. Both John and Ed started volunteering for us back in October of 2007 and have been back together for several volunteer weeks since. They work great as a team and we ALWAYS eat like kings (and queens as the case may be) when they are here. One of the reasons is that Chef John is, well, a chef. He is classically trained, is the owner of Resident Gourmet Personal Chef Service, and is also a chef instructor. He has cooked for several celebrity clients over the years such as Montel Williams, the rock band Cheap Trick, President Bill Clinton, and President George W. Bush.
Chef John will prepare a 9 course meal for New Year's Eve dinner on this exclusive EduTrip. Here is the menu:
Course 1: Amuse Bouche; various croustades, appetizers, nibbles and beverages
Course 2: Smoked Tomato Soup with Parmesan Crisps
Course 3: Belgian Endive Salad with Spiced Pears and Blue Cheese
Course 4: Maine Lobster with Mango, Avocado, Roasted Red Bell Pepper and Ginger-Sauternes Sauce
Course 5: Duck Breast with Port Wine Shallot Reduction
Course 6: Ragout of Lamb with Olives and Preserved Lemon
Course 7: Chateubriand with Bernaise
Course 8: Assorted Cheeses and Winter Fruit Chutney
Course 9: The 'Rockpile Trio,' featuring a Banana Caramel Tart, Mini Flourless Dark Chocolate Cake and Roasted Coconut Ice Cream
That last course is a dessert that has been created by Chef John for this event. I've had his flourless dark chocolate cake before and it is incredible, even just by itself.
In addition to all this, each participant will receive an L.L. Bean Wind Challenger Fleece Jacket as well as a framed 8 x 10 photo of the group from the event. Check out the event page for more info and and to order tickets online. This event its limited to a handful of participants, so don't wait to get your tickets!
Brian Clark – Observer and Meteorologist
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Tonights view.
When I started my meteorology classes in fall of 1999, the general meteorology classes had about 100 students or so in them. As the second semester came about, that number was cut in about half. But it wasn't until sophomore year that my peers started jumping ship left and right to engineering, computer science, physics or other majors. By the time I graduated, there was about seven of us, and that was considered a big class for my department. So why such a large drop off rate? Well, the answer I heard over and over again was how meteorology wasn't what they thought it was. They chose meteorology because they thought it was going to be like what they saw on TV. In some ways it is but at the core of meteorology is a lot of math, physics, chemistry, and theory. And it wasn't until the second year that all of these concentrations start to be used and students soon realize that it isn't all green screens and giant L's and H's. But unfortunately, this (the TV weatherman persona) is the perception of a lot of people when they hear what I do for a living. But it isn't as easy as it looks on TV.
If there was a magical weather formula where you plug in x and y and get z as the answer, I probably wouldn't have a job. Although, forecasting kind has a formula feeling to it in that if I see certain characteristics, odds are we will get a certain outcome. But like high order math where if you forget to square one number, the outcome can be entirely different than expected. Did a high move faster blocking a low? Was there more moisture that models were indicating? It is a lot to look for with a lot of different outcomes. I like to think that overall we do a good job at forecasting and we have had a few interns look at our accuracy/precision. But it would be interesting to see if things have improved over my time here because I always try to learn from my mistakes. It's similar to playing sports, the best way to get better for the future is to look at the mistakes of the past. It is all a matter of learning what certain weather patterns will do. But what about the current weather pattern we are in?
Since we only go out 36 hours on our higher summits forecast, I know what is causing today and tomorrow's weather. I can use models out two weeks and get a general idea of what will happen but forecasting for an entire season is out of my realm. We keep getting emails asking us what is going to happen this winter and why November is acting so odd. I can explain what has caused the weather this month but as for what the coming months hold, I have to turn to National Weather Service, Accuweather, the Farmers Almanac, or one of several other websites as to what they are thinking since they have dedicated people who look at these sorts of things. So I am not very useful in looking ahead long term but I thought maybe I could look at our past for some clues that might explain what's going on because the best way to know what the future might hold is to look at the past. So that is what I decided to do this past week.
Now, while Mount Washington Observatory has over 75 years of weather records, the World Meteorological Organization only considers a 30 year average to be a standard climatological normal (click here for more on why this is). So to save me a bit of time, I went with examining the past 30 years to hopefully find a pattern. I examined temperature, precipitation, and snowfall since these seem to be the big three we are getting the most questions about since they are the most obvious. I then looked at three factors that some have been suggesting: 1) Global warming because this is what most people are blaming for any weather now and days it seems. 2) El Nino and La Nina years since these have been circulating on the news recently since this is considered to be a El Nino year. And 3) is this is a result from the cool and very wet summer we had.
Now, I will start by saying that my "research" was very basic, very quick, and was by no means concrete or journal worthy. Due to my schedule, I maybe spent a total of three hours examining the data and weather maps which isn't a lot of time to draw any sure fire conclusions. Plus, the month still has a week to go, so I don't want to say November has thrown in the towel quite yet especially looking at models for this weekend. But I did debunk a few things and found an interesting correlation. To answer the first one, no, it is not global warming. Far from it. It is not the driest November in our history, that occurred in 1939 with only 2.31 inches. In fact it is not even in the top 10 driest Novembers. And out of the 30 past years, the top 10 driest Novembers are evenly spread with no distinct patterns. As for snowfall, it is not the least snowfall received since that too was in the 1930's. Over the past 30 years it is currently the least snowiest but the month isn't over and all it needs is 2 inches to pass that distinction, so still very plausible. As for warmth, it isn't the warmest November ever nor is the warmest over the past 30 years. And there was no concrete warming trend in Novembers seen. So we are not getting noticeably warmer and drier in November because of global warming. Remember the correct term is climate change and the effects can only be seen over long periods of time; not days, weeks, months, or even 30 to 75 year periods. So please stop using global warming as the scapegoat.
As for El Nino and La Nina years, there was no correlation with these events in relation to temperature, precipitation or snowfall. These alter west coast weather patterns and indirectly affect the east coast but it isn't as major as the affects are on southern California for example. In fact, over the past 30 years, some of our snowiest Novembers occurred with both El Nino and La Nina's. So if anything, I would expect us to be wetter and snowier or at least closer to average.
But the last thing I looked at (wet summer=dry Nov.), I did find a small correlation for snowfall. In years where the months of June, July and August received nearly an inch or more of precipitation above the 30 year normal for all three months, November's snowfall tended to be below the 30 year normal. In fact, for the 10 lowest years from the past 30 years, 7 out of 10 showed this correlation. But this wasn't always the case and it isn't something I would say is THE cause for what is going on in November. Given more time though (intern project in the future?) this would definitely be something worth looking into a bit deeper. So unfortunately, I didn't find any conclusive results as to what is contributing to the current weather November has received. All I can say for sure is these things happen from time to time. And instead of worrying about it, think of a few of the positives if you live in New England: lower heating costs, cities are saving on snow removal, you can go outside and play like it is still early fall, and it is allowing people to say they climbed the mountain in November (a typical winter month; just don't tell people about the nice weather you had). So enjoy it while it lasts because history has shown that winter will inevitably arrive regardless of what happens in November.
Observer Footnote: The attached picture was courtesy of our fall intern Will Tourtellet. It was taken tonight with a long exposure looking southeast. The lights you see are Conway, NH (closest), Lewiston/Auburn, ME (distant left of the picture) and Portland, ME (distant right of the picture). If you would like to see some more of his pictures, you can click here.
Ryan Knapp – Staff Meteorologist
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A Christmas Sampler.
Dear Santa-
This year, I am starting a month earlier than usual since I am going on vacation but it also gives you some more time since I know you make most of your gifts, but some things just cannot be manufactured by your elves and I want to ensure you have time to surf the web. Plus, it will allow us to mail our letter to you the old fashion way instead of relying on email. As per your request last year when we provided you with NH's Christmas night forecast, I will keep your email you provided us private. And just in case the USPS continues their ban on mailing letters to the North Pole, I will post a comment and a forum post with the list especially since I know you check our comments year round to ensure if we have been naughty or nice.
We have, in my opinion, all been good boys and girls once again this year including Marty, the summit cat you met last year. In case you don't remember what he looks like, he is an all black Maine Coon, so you might want to bring a glow stick so you don't step on him or have him crawl into your bag by accident. We have also acted kindly to all our guests, friends and families. And we have been working hard and diligently just as last year, 24-7-365.
So, if it is not too much trouble, could you please bring the following items this Christmas:
1. Observatory Memberships - Not for the observers but for other boys and girls on your list around the world. Since we are membership supported, these gifts would be the gifts that keep giving over the year.
2. Gift Donations - This will help lighten your bag of toys. Plus, if you do it before December 31st, you will have a chance at winning Mino HD Flip Camcorder courtesy of our sponsor Subaru of America. Just think of what you and the elves could do with this!
3. LL Bean clothing - To keep us warm and toasty. Just remember to keep it synthetic or wool as cotton kills, but I am sure you know what we need living so far north. Also, if you plan on using LL Bean for gifts for others on your list, if you use the link I provided, a percentage of your purchase will go towards helping us out as well.
4. Office Supplies - We work like an office, so anything you can send that will cut costs for us is great: 0.7mm mechanical pencils, refill lead, post-its, printer paper, etc.
5. Batteries - Preferably AAA, AA or D's as our headlamps, flashlights and rescue/research equipment use these.
6. Gift cards - We go shopping for food weekly at Hannaford, Shaw's or Walmart but Lowes, Home Depot, or anywhere else in North Conway is fine. You know what's here.
7. A KitchenAid stand mixer - Ours recently stopped working forcing our volunteers to use a hand mixer. Their treats still come out great but having acted as a volunteer a few times, I know a stand alone is much better. A KitchenAid type is preferred since all our current mixer accessories are compatible with this type.
8. An atomic clock - So we can keep even more accurate time on when to do observations up here. Plus, if you buy it from our online gift shop, you'll be giving us two gifts (a clock and financial support).
9. Sporting Equipment - Can you ever have enough sporting equipment? I know the majority of our shift wants some sort of cardio equipment (treadmill, bike, rower, etc.) but footballs, baseballs, hockey sticks/balls/nets, soccer balls are all welcome. But make sure you have one of your elves call us first if you're considering a big piece of fitness equipment;we don't have a lot of space, so we need to make sure it will fit!
10. Nerf sporting equipment - This will allow us to take our sports indoors with a lower fear of breaking something important. A Nerf soccer ball would be at the top of this list.
11. Board Games - To keep us entertained as a group from time to time.
12. Books - Preferably popular ones and not romance novels.
13. Sleds - preferably the long toboggan type that run for about $10-20 bucks since it doesn't take much for a rock to tear these apart.
14. Candles - Preferably the large jar type like the ones from Soyfire or Yankee Candle Company. They liven up our living quarters and make it feel more like home.
15. Candy and gum - Since I know you eat a lot of cookies and sweets, I know you can relate. Can you ever really have enough?
16. Snow - the more the better! Especially since November has been so dry.
17. Surprise us again! - Sometimes the coolest gifts are the ones you didn't think you needed.
Some notes Santa: Second hand items are fine so long as they are in good, clean, and usable condition; plus it will help the environment. We are not picky. Also, if you prefer a type of cookie, post something in our forums and we will let that weeks volunteer know ahead of time. Just don't be surprised if some are missing from your plate as it's hard to pass up fresh cookies up here. We can also provide egg nog, soy milk or Lactaid if needed.
We are preparing the Observatory for your visit on December 25th. We are clearing paths and digging out our decorations. We are WD-40ing our doors and stairs so you can sneak down them without making a noise.
Well, we look forward to seeing what you bring on Christmas morning. Hopefully we get some snow between now and then but since we only forecast out 36 hours at a time, it is hard to tell. But no matter the weather, your sled can handle anything so no worries. I will let the night observer that week, Mike C., know you are coming since this will be his first Christmas working up here and I don't want him to be spooked when he sees a jolly, red suited person downstairs that night. Have safe travel and Happy Holidays.
Thanks-
Ryan Knapp – Staff Meteorologist
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A Step In The Right Direction
In yesterday's comment, Mike Finnegan brought to light the fact that many of the comments from this month have focused on the abnormal weather we've had on the summit. However I think that we've been experiencing all sorts of crazy weather events this month because people, including myself, have continued to write and talk about them. I, for one, don't want this erratic weather to continue and to that end, I have decided to enforce a ban on this subject. I think that the weather, in a manner similar to that of a child, likes the attention it's been receiving this month. Of course, it's appropriate to pay children plenty of attention and build their self esteem as the grow, but sometimes they act up, show off, embarrass their parents and generally take things for-granted. My point is that I think the weather is behaving like an ungrateful child and now it's time for some tough love. I certainly don't think that this is one of the best metaphors I've ever come up with, but I wanted to make it clear to the weather/child, that an arrogant attitude will not be tolerated any longer. So, It's time to straighten up and fly right. I really hope this approach works because after this shift I only have two more shifts before my internship ends which means that there's a lot of extreme weather that had better take place between now and then. The aforementioned extreme weather will hopefully allow me to do things such as, become part of the "Century Club" and ride to the summit in the snow tractor. Who knows? Maybe I'll even get to do some skiing. But, until at least one of those things happens, the tough love will continue, or at least I'll keep crossing my fingers because I am clearly powerless!
Will Tourtellot – Summit Intern
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The Difference a Day Makes
A common topic for comments seems to be the uncommon weather we've been having for November. I will continue this trend today by relaying a story of yesterday.
The morning began with a fine sunrise with visibility around 120 miles. There weren't many clouds to color up, but there was enough particulate in the atmosphere to form a mountain shadow. Alpineglow also painted the peaks to our north as the sun rose above the horizon. As the sun rose higher, the patchy valley fog and lakes turned golden against the still shadowed mountains. At some point, the sun was at just the right angle to reflect off the Atlantic and Sebego Lake.
It was a bit before noon when Steve Moore, a longtime observatory volunteer, walked in the weather room to greet us. He had wisely taken the day off from work and had hiked up the Jewel Trail, over to Jefferson, and was passing through on the way to Monroe. We talked for a bit and I told him how difficult it was to be working inside on a computer on a day such as it was to which he said, "Well, can't you do it later?" I thought for a moment, and then looked at the clock. "I guess I could head out for a while so long as I'm back in time to forecast." I said, and we headed out.
We walked down towards Lakes with temperatures in the 40's and winds around 20 mph. It was difficult to believe it was November as I hiked in just a base layer. Along the way we talked to a few other folks who were skipping work to enjoy the beautiful day. Most of them had come up the Ammonoosuc Ravine Trail and said it was quite icy, giving fair warning to Steve who was planning to head down that way. We soon reached Lakes and stopped there for some water before continuing on to Monroe. Looking back at Washington from the summit, Steve remarked how odd it was to see the lakes frozen over with clear ice on them as opposed to covered with snow. We hung out for a while, and then hiked back down to the hut, ate a couple gingersnap cookies, and parted ways.
I decided to take the Tuckerman's Crossover trail so I could go up a different side of the mountain than I descended and maybe see a few new sites. This trail is far less traveled than the Crawford Path evident by the greater abundance of sedge in the trail itself. It was very peaceful with the only noise present being the whisper of the wind through the sedge. It is a sound that will soon disappear until spring. Walking further, I found an interesting patch of ice amongst rocks. Throughout it there were some very interesting formations. While there, I looked back towards Monroe and at the few high cirrus in the sky. The ice crystals in one refracted the sun's rays just right as to form a sundog. Wandering a bit further, I found one of the few patches of snow left on the mountain anywhere. I stopped for a minute to enjoy the scenery and found I was not the only one; two raven friends were also cruising about. A few steps further brought me within sight of Tuckerman Ravine and I was pleasantly surprised to see the Left of Left Gully ice starting for form up! I finally hiked up the summit cone and arrived back to work, ready to forecast. Finishing up the forecast, I watched the sunset and soon thereafter, the moonset close behind it. All-in-all, it was a great day and I am glad I got out to enjoy it before the foggy, wet weather of today arrived.
Mike Finnegan – IT Observer
Sunny and warm.
Both are relative terms, one more than the other. Both are things that aren't always good in my opinion, again, one more than the other. Both are things that if I wanted all the time, I would move to southern California with my dad.
These terms could also be used to describe the weather on the mountain so far this month. As far as sunshine goes, counting today we have seen four days with 100% of our possible sunshine minutes (minutes when a shadow is being cast) and 11 days with greater than 50% of our possible sunshine. Unfortunately I don't have an average value to compare that to, but trust me, that's a lot of sunshine for this mountain. When it comes to temperatures, as of yesterday our average temperature for the month is a significant 6.6 degrees above average for the month. We have seen 11 days with an average daily temperature above average with 5 of those days more than 10 degrees above average. We have also broken one daily record high and tied another. Today we came within a degree or so of tying another.
This pattern will likely continue into at least early next week with some hope of more seasonable weather on the horizon around the Thanksgiving holiday next week. With that outlook, I'm pretty much ready to call November a 'loss' in terms of being anywhere close to normal. The good news is that it is very early in the winter season. December could see a complete turnaround and that is most certainly what I will be hoping for!
Brian Clark – Observer and Meteorologist
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Dig In!
Well, if anyone was glued to the Webcam early afternoon on Sunday, they would have
seen me walking around and around the Observation Deck 15 times. We were in the
clouds all day so it was not conducive to wandering around the summit. Unable to do
my fairweather walk down the road to the Great Gulf overlook (my terminology), the
laps around the deck had to suffice!
Mid-November and the cog is still coming to the summit twice a day, the road is
still clear and we drove all the way up in a van and will do the same going down. I
have never experienced that in my 7 other weeks up here. Several days and nights
were clearer and calmer than I have ever seen and it was extra fortunate yesterday AM
when we arose at 4 to see some of the Leonid meteors. By contrast, we also had heavy
rain and wind gusting to 86 MPH over the weekend, with temps down to the teens. The
mountain never fails to provide!
But of course, my main mission here is to cook for the crew, which I enjoy
immensely. Somehow, I don't make the mistakes I make at home when I am here. No
wonder I keep coming back! How fun it is to look around at what ingredients are here
and decide what the next meal will be. Our most interesting meal was Toad in the
Hole, which I had always wanted to try, and was spurred on by Observer Steve and his
British roots. The photo shows just how much he wanted to get started on the meal.
Thanks to the wonderful crew for a fabulous week!
Nicole Moore – Summit Volunteer
One of the side effects of constantly looking up at the clouds is a resulting curiosity about what lies beyond the weather. That vast, expansive, final frontier: space. The intrigue of space and the cosmos was ingrained into me as a young child. My father would sit me, my brother and sister down in front of the TV and put in a tape: The Cosmos, by Carl Sagan. Even back then, watching the stars, nebulae, and galaxies zoom across the television screen made me feel small and inconsequential (but only on a universal scale). There were nights when he would take out his reflecting telescope and try to show us Saturn's rings. For all I know, this introduction to space may have been the beginning to my own personal interest in the sky.
Well, this morning that excitement about the night sky was renewed. The Leonid Meteor Shower peaked this morning, between 0330 and 0530 EST. The stars from Mount Washington on a crisp, cool, clear night glitter like diamonds spread across black velvet. Knowing this, I couldn't imagine a better viewing spot for the Leonids than my very own backyard (or tower). For the first time in a long while, the summit was clear for an astronomical event. Alarms buzzed at 0330 EST and by 0405 EST we were on the tower, faces tilted up expectantly.
Our early rise was greatly rewarded! I have intentionally witnessed the Leonids two times before today, and that totaled 10 sightings. Over the course of an hour, I saw close to 20 meteors! If you add in Mary Ellen's, Mike's, and Nicole's sightings, it's probably close to 35 or 40! It was like cosmic rain. After shivering on the windy tower, we gradually trickled back inside for some hot coffee. Waking up at 3:30 am has never been so rewarding.
Stacey Kawecki – Observer and Meteorologist
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Lenticular Clouds at Sunrise.
The unseasonably mild weather on the summit the past few days had brought some hopes of possibly breaking a few temperature records, specifically on Saturday and Sunday. The record for November 14th was set in 1937 at 45 degrees, for November 15th the record was set just last year at 48 degrees, and the record for the month of November was 52 set in 1982.
On Saturday the summit was in the fog all day and was pounded with rain as winds were blowing strong from the southeast. Temperatures slowly increased throughout the day to a maximum of 47 degrees and indeed breaking the long standing record for November 14th!
Yesterday we were excited and hoping for another record breaking day. The forecast models had yesterday clearing out of the fog by afternoon and temperatures rising close to 50 degrees. Reaching this would have definitely broken the record for November 15th but a few degrees higher and it would have broken the record for the month. Well, yesterday didn't turn out to be as warm as we were all hoping. The summit remained in the fog for most of the day not really allowing the sunshine to reach us. Temperatures didn't reach the high we were hoping for BUT we were able to get just warm enough to tie the 2008 record with a maximum of 48 degrees!
Things have considerably changed now as a cold front passed over the region early this morning. I woke up to howling winds of close to 70mph and temperatures which have dropped into the twenties. This is more like it!
Mary Ellen Dunn – Summit Intern
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Nor'easter of 1996
Although the storm that visited the area yesterday was technically not a Nor'easter for New England, a bit further south, it certainly was.
What constitutes a nor'easter? In anticipation of the upcoming winter season, and for your general knowledge, here is a brief explanation of the distinctive characteristics of these sometimes-monster storms:
Nor'easters are unique to the northeastern United States and the Atlantic coast of southern Canada. Although low pressure systems with similar structures form in other places around the globe, the unique combination and interaction of the ocean, the coastal plain, the inland mountain ranges, and the effects the storm has on all of them leads to an equally distinctive result.
Nor'easters are extratropical, meaning they are not classified as a hurricane or tropical storm. Although a well-developed nor'easter can appear strikingly similar to a hurricane from the perspective of a satellite image (the most potent ones even possess what appears to be an eye), there are distinct differences. Extratropical cyclones are 'cold-core' low pressure systems, gathering their strength more from temperature gradients, or baroclinicity, while tropical storm systems are 'warm-core,' relying on warm ocean waters for fuel. In the case of tropical systems, the strongest winds are at the surface, whereas with extratropical systems, the fastest speeds are observed aloft.
Speaking of winds, they are another signature of a nor'easter, and perhaps the most infamous, as that is how they have ultimately been named. The very-often damaging winds are generally from the northeast along the affected coastlines. Winds can blow in excess of 50 mph at the surface, whipping up the waves, which frequently results in costly coastal damage, as well as inland structural damage. The strong northeast flow also serves another vital purpose--moisture. Without moisture to tap into, all of the dynamics in place will not amount to any significant precipitation. Because northeast winds allow moisture from off the Atlantic to come flooding in to the northeastern US, nor'easters very often produce widespread areas of significant snow or rain fall.
As far as precipitation is concerned, nor'easters can dump feet of snow on one place, and inches of rain on another, all dependent upon the proximity to the coastline. A track closer to the coast generally results in rain (and sometimes a wintry mix) for coastal locations with snow inland. If the low takes a track much further from the coast, very little will result, with perhaps modest snowfall amounts near the coast. However, if a track is followed in between these two (in the 'sweet spot,' if you will), significant snowfall could result for the entire northeast. And as always, the specifics change from situation to situation, such as the characteristics of the air mass that was in place, moisture availability, upper-level dynamics, and many more. So while two nor'easter-type systems may be very similar and take nearly identical tracks, the results will by no means be the same.
When the right moisture and dynamics do come together, the product can be quite extraordinary! And although not technically hurricanes, they can still produce just as much damage and disruption of daily life.
Mike Carmon – Staff Meteorologist
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Another Sunrise
Something was badly wrong this morning. As I stepped outside just before 6am to take an observation I was greeted with thick wet fog and cool blustery conditions. Quite a shock and certainly not normal for this past week.
Joking aside the past few days have been very unusual for the summit especially considering it's now mid November which, is typically the cloudiest month in New Hampshire. Since shift change last Wednesday we've had a run of very mild, calm, sunny weather with three spectacular sunsets and two equally nice sunrises. It's been more like summer up here than early winter.
Now that the weekend is upon us the weather is switching over to rain, fog and wind. Still no snow in the immediate future as temperatures tomorrow will approach record highs of around 50 degrees. Crazy weather!
Steve Welsh – IT Observer
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sitting ducks...I think not!
Amazing, incredible, phenomenal, mind-blowing. All these words came to mind this morning as the sun's light lit up the landscape below. I have never experienced visibility like today's visibility.
On days like today, 130 miles doesn't seem accurate. The Adirondacks looked as clear and crisp as the Greens. The Atlantic glittered and seemed close enough to reach out and touch. This morning Chris from State Park came over to show us a couple of tankers sitting off the shore of Portland.
The easterly winds and fair weather will continue, at least through Friday. The strong high pressure will gradually move northeast, making room for the remnants of Hurricane Ida. The resulting southeasterly flow will slowly put an end to the exceptionally clear and dry stretch of weather. Moisture from Ida's remnants will filter overhead increasing clouds and water vapor, slowly diminishing the visibility. However, I think we'll all enjoy it while we can!
Stacey Kawecki – Observer and Meteorologist
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Jupiter storms or our sunset?
Today's shift change did not feel like a mid-November shift change. It felt more like a mid-summer shift change, with a heck of a lot less traffic. Due to the warm temperatures and total lack of precipitation of late, the drive up the Mount Washington Auto Road was quick and smooth. Normally at this time of year, we're taking a truck with chains and plow up to about half way and then transferring to the snow tractor. If we're not using a snow tractor, we're at least chaining up the van and truck below half way. So, taking the van with no chains all the way up with no snow and no traffic is just plain weird.
Mother Nature's sense of humor would seem to be a bit ironic and wry. She provides a cool, wet summer, followed by a fairly dry start to the winter season. Now, many of us summit dwellers like the cold. For some, the southern sweltering summers is a punishment. However, cold really isn't too much fun without snow! Mary Ellen only has three weeks left, and we promised her a ride in our sweet snow tractor! The leaves have all fallen from the trees, but the mountain tops have yet to be frosted white. But New England's weather is a fickle monster. Last Halloween was white, but Christmas was gray and rainy. Even though the first few days of our shift will be a continuation of today's gorgeous weather, calm winds, sunny skies, and unseasonably warm temperatures, by the end of the week we could be taking the snow tractor down the mountain. Crazier things have happened.
Stacey Kawecki – Observer and Meteorologist
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A (nearly) snowless morning view out the window
Mike mentioned yesterday that we have been without a volunteer during this past shift. I feel like I should point out that this volunterlessness (I don't think that's really word) was mostly by choice. We had at least one previous volunteer come forward and offer to come up, at very short notice, to cover this past shift. While we certainly appreciate this very much, and appreciate the work of ALL our volunteers, we made the conscious decision to go it alone this week and cook for ourselves.
First of all, we figured it would be a nice change from the norm. This is only the second time since I have worked for the Observatory that I have spent a full week here without a volunteer. All of us on this shift enjoy cooking and it turns out we are actually pretty good at it! Secondly, this is a quiet time of year. There are no overnight guests, so making dinner only involves cooking for a handful of people. For most of this shift, that handful amounted to only the three observers (Mike, Ryan, and myself). This has made a quiet time of year even quieter, which has been very nice.
Another shift draws to a close for me tomorrow. Hopefully when I return next Wednesday, things will look a bit more like winter!
Brian Clark – Observer and Meteorologist
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Sunrise this Morning
This has been a different week than most on the mountain as we are without a volunteer this week. As members of the Observatory, one can apply to be a volunteer on the summit for a week. In turn for stay on the summit, the volunteer(s) cook the crew and other guest's dinner as well as keep the living quarters tidy. This is really a huge help, especially during Edu-Trip season when there can be nearly 20 people staying over night sometimes. We are all really appreciative and thankful for this help, especially after working 10 or 12 hours. The summit didn't always have volunteers though, and this week it feels a bit more like the old days. Each person in the crew has taken a day or two to cook dinner for everyone else except for tonight when Brian and I teamed up to tackle pizza making. As we all enjoy to cook and there are no trips this time of year, it has been a fun change.
Tonight after dinner, we watched a documentary titled "Food, Inc." It is a very interesting movie, explaining to the extent they are allowed to, how much of our food comes to us. In Vermont where I live, there are several farmers' markets throughout the state. A couple years ago when I lived at home permanently (before working a week on and a week off), my roommates and I joined a CSA (community supported agriculture) run by a farm a few miles from home. A family close to mine growing up owned a dairy farm (no longer in operation) and my best friend from college works on a farm in southern Vermont. For any small farm dependent upon local support there are difficulties, very often financially.
This is not so different than most non-profit organizations, such as the Observatory. Without the support of our members, we would not be able to continue our work atop Mount Washington. We are a small organization who work hard to keep our climate record as accurate and continuous as possible, and who are passionate about using our unique location to further instrument development and education. Thinking back to dinner though, I know all of the vegetables that were bought were generic ones. Many of the dry ingredients were bulk ingredients through a large distributor. In fact, I can't think of a single ingredient besides the water which came from our well that was produced locally or maybe even in the northeast.
As has been said countless times, we eat very well here on the summit. We are more than lucky to eat so well, better than most kings have in the past. As a non-profit, we have had times of financial difficulty, but would it be possible to help a farmer (and likely a friend) in the valley, while not strapping ourselves for money? Could we eat less ourselves and buy more locally grown food from people we may actually know? For Edu-Trips, we (or I should say, the volunteers) provide incredible dinners, at least on par with ones cooked at a restaurant. I know some of the best meals I have eaten in restaurants have been ones where local meats were used or cheeses from farms throughout Vermont. The portions might be a bit smaller, but the quality of the food is noticeably better and I still feel satiated, as well as knowing I am supporting my local economy. I'm curious to hear people's reflections on this, especially past Edu-Trippers as their quality of experience and expectations would play a major role in any change that might occur. Please let us know what you think by heading over to our forums and starting a thread there about this topic. Thanks for reading.
Mike Finnegan – IT Observer
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Tonights sunset ends the day but starts my shift
There are many things I like about being a night observer this time of year but some aspects I don't. Let me start with the positives though. I like how it is a roller coaster of weather (like Brian called it yesterday). One night it might be single digits while the next night it is in the 20s or 30s. And while that doesn't sound very warm, it requires less layers and I can usually go out without a facemask on. The winds will be dead calm one night then category I the next night, which is normal for winter months to do. I like blowing snow limiting my visibility as it piles into dunes taller than me as I get the precipitation can. I like how clear the nights are providing the 120 miles vistas that are more common in winter than summer. I like the way the stars glimmer and the city lights glow on the horizon. I like watching the cars below as they head to or from their destinations and wonder what they might be doing and if they are looking up here and wondering what I am doing. I like how rime coats everything in a wintry white with spears and spirals like fingers or feathers reaching out towards the winds that formed them. I like watching my breath turn to fog. I like the noise snow makes under my feet. I like looking at the steps of where people once walked and wonder who made them then the next day, like a giant shaken etch-a-sketch, the prints are gone and filled with blown in snow creating a clean slate. I like the crisp sunsets and moonrises. And this list, I am sure, could go on but it's not all roses being the night observer this time of year.
When it is single digits, it can take two minutes to get dressed to go outside, sometimes more time than the actual observation itself takes to do. While I like the severe weather, there is inherent danger attached to having high winds, blowing snow, rime, etc. Once everyone is asleep, I have to depend on our two-way radio waking someone and getting help if it arises. If I get injured, help is even further away since the road requires either the Bombardier snow tractor or a truck with chains making rescues take on the Golden Day rule rather than the Golden Hour rule. The disappearing footsteps in heavy fog and blowing snow can make something like getting the precipitation can, a task that usually takes 5 minutes, into an adventure than can take 15 to 30 minutes. My shift starts in the dark and ends in the dark. That means I have to stay up for sunrise and get up for sunsets. I don't usually see hikers and the ones I do see don't usually stick around due to the cold. Rescues in the winter tend to be fewer (which is good) but when they do occur, they tend to be more serious and more dangerous for us pending on the weather conditions. And while some of these are pretty scary things, luckily there occurrences up here are far and few between. And while every job has its good days (nights) and its bad, I would say that out of the 365 days in a year, out of the ones I work, maybe only a total of five or less make me think "Why am I working nights again?" But then the next night rolls along and replaces that feeling with "This, right here, is why I work here and why I work nights."
Ryan Knapp – Staff Meteorologist
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Sunrise this morning
Generally speaking, I am a pretty patient person. However there are things that I am quite inpatient about. One of these things is happening right now on and off the mountain: the onset of winter.
Although we consider October and November 'winter' months on the mountain, they have the tendency to be very back and forth. By this, I mean that it could be in the teens and snowing one day, and just a few days later it could be in the 30's or 40's with rain. That cycle has happened a couple times over the last few weeks. Early to mid October saw a bunch of snow, but it all disappeared with record high temperatures at the end of the month. Now in the beginning of November, things are white again after several days of temperatures in the teens and a few inches of snow. Now temperatures are set to rise above freezing yet again for tomorrow and into the beginning of next week.
This back and forth drives me crazy mostly because it is such a tease. Not only do I enjoy the cold and snow, but this time of year I am more than a little anxious to click into my skis and make some turns. The summit is white, but there's isn't quite enough to ski yet. Snow is also starting to appear in the valley as well, both natural and man-made. Sunday River ski area actually opened on October 14, and has been open every weekend since, but I haven't been able to make it up there yet.
So I will continue to work on being patient, knowing that winter (and skiing) should be here to stay in just a matter of weeks now.
Brian Clark – Observer and Meteorologist
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Snow on The Upper Slopes of Wildcat.
Wednesday I returned for my sixth week as the summit intern and I'm very excited about the month of November. Winter on Mount Washington generally begins in October and ends in May but November is usually when things begin to get very interesting. The average snowfall for the month of November is ~40 inches, while October's average snowfall is a meager ~12 inches. However, like many folks out there, I'm more interested in high winds and the average wind speeds for October and November also differ significantly. October has an average wind speed of 33.8 mph but November's average is 39.7 mph! That's a 5.9 mph difference which is quite significant when we remember that these are averages. I think I speak for everyone here at the summit when I say that I hope this November brings some ridiculous winds! If you'd like to read more about some of this data I encourage you to check out the Normals, Means, & Extremes page. There is also a lot more fascinating weather data to be found under the Weather tab on the Observatory home page.
I don't recall mentioning this in a past comment but about 4 weeks ago, I had an accident with my new Canon DSLR camera. At about 1:45 AM on Sunday October 11th, as I was shooting some long exposures on the observation deck, the wind decided that it would no longer play nice with my tripod and camera. I was standing about five feet from the tripod preparing to end an exposure with my remote when a wind gust in excess of 75 mph blew my camera and tripod to the deck. Actually "blew" is not a strong enough verb, this gust actually THREW the camera and tripod down at the deck! For the photographers out there, I think it's worth noting that I had about 15 lbs of ballast on my tripod's center column hook. This, of course, ended the nearly 3 minute exposure for me. After I gathered the pieces of my broken spirit and my broken camera I strolled inside to find out if I had any salvageable shots and to my chagrin, the coup de grace was awesome! So today, after sending my camera back to Canon for repair, I received an email from Canon to expect my repaired camera to be returned to me within seven business days. Hopefully, by the beginning of my next shift I will have received my camera and have more shots to post with my comments. This is quite possibly the most exciting news I've received about anything in quite a while, so I thought I'd tell you ya'll about it. Even when it seems that everything has gone wrong and a solution seems impossible, "everything" can change very quickly!
Will Tourtellot – Summit Intern
This shift week has truly been a roller coaster ride! We arrived to relatively light winds and temperatures around freezing. The winds struggled to break 20 mph on Wednesday (in fact, our peak gust for the day was a meager 22 mph). A few days later, on October 30th, we tied a record high of 48 degrees. But the warmth did not stop there. The next day, very early on Halloween morning, we set a record high of 52 degrees, leaving the old record of 49 degrees in the dust! This was the result of a strong southwest flow in the warm sector of a very strong low pressure system to our west.
That night, Halloween night, winds of change came as that low pressure system rapidly intensified over Canada. The southwest winds gusted to 96 mph and brought about the most dramatic drop in temperature I have ever witnessed (along with rain falling in buckets). You may have read about the temperature drop in Stacey's comment from the other day. But to refresh your memory, temps plummeted 11 degrees in just about 30 minutes. Temperatures on the first day of November settled around 20 degrees.
On Sunday and Monday nights, it was a real pleasure to be the night observer. Winds were calm, skies were clear, and the moon was nearly full. There are many nights when I'll do an observation as quickly as possible to limit my exposure to the harsh weather conditions that are in control outside. But on these nights, I spent a little extra time on every observation to take in the rare serene nighttime conditions. Being inside proved to be difficult on those evenings. Our peak gust on Monday was a mere 25 mph.
And now, as I write this comment, winds have picked up due to a cold frontal passage, which was expected and forecasted. However, speeds have reached levels we didn't quite think they would achieve-so far tonight, we've peaked at 87 mph. And winds are still gusting into the mid 80s, which will make my trip to the precip can in about 5 minutes very interesting. And to make the situation even more dynamic, the cold front has allowed temperatures to take yet another nose dive into the teens, and has dumped about 2" of snow, which is being blown around into drifts by the hurricane force winds. It's quite a contrast from Saturday morning's temperatures in the lower 50's!
This will definitely make for an interesting shift change later today.
Mike Carmon – Staff Meteorologist
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The weather has finally cleared up from the weekend show of high winds and foggy skies. It still amazes me how quickly the weather can change up here and this weekend was another great example. One second the wind's gusting to a peak of 96mph with heavy down pouring rain and the next temperature drops 10 degrees in an hour, as a cold front passes covering the summit in ice. Yesterday we were socked in the fog all day with teases of blue sky right above, then all of a sudden, clearing to a beautiful night sky with winds dying significantly. High pressure was in control today making it a beautiful day. You never know what the weather conditions will be on the summit of Mount Washington and with winter approaching I know the show will only get that much better.
Mary Ellen Dunn – Summit Intern
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Halloween on the summit.
Daylight Savings Time strikes again! As Steve struggles with yet more database issues, Mary Ellen and I occasionally here the frustrated sighs coming from the IT corner. We also hear the sporadic rants about daylight savings time and how it's utterly useless. Steve is attempting to fix these time issues for good, and has been at it for the entire day. I'd say a rant or two is definitely admissible, if not completely warranted. On the bright side, the summit and valley facilities are now on the same time, erasing the omnipresent confusion of what time it really is.
In other news, most of us are slightly bummed. After all the hype (even on our off-week, Mike and I were tracking the winds on this storm) winds peaked at only 96 mph yesterday. Though it is an exiting number, we were all hoping to hit the century mark. However, we did get an impressive frontal passage. Temperature plunged from 48 degrees F to 37 degrees in about half an hour! By the time the rest of us woke up in the morning, it felt like November, with winds about 60 mph and temperatures in the lower twenties. Refreshing.
Maybe it was due to the weather or because Mount Washington is kind of a pain to get to in costume, but we didn't receive any trick-or-treaters yesterday. That's three years in a row with no special Halloween guests, and all the more candy for us! We did kick back and enjoy the holiday; Friday night Mary Ellen, Mike, Deb, and I all worked together to carve a pumpkin and roast the seeds. And yesterday we all dressed up and ate way too much candy.
Staying up too late and going to bed with a stomach ach, watching scary movies and wearing costumes is what Halloween was all about when I was growing up. I'm glad that we were able to continue the tradition on the summit.
Stacey Kawecki – Observer and Meteorologist
OUR PARTNERS
09:43 Mon Nov 30th
Weather and this mountain never cease to amaze me. The amazing amount of snowfall and the incredible winds whipping the snow off and around the summits created a winter-wonderland landscape; dangerously beautiful. Rime formed on every surface, making the buildings appear to be blanketed in snowy clouds. In one day, on a previously snow-less summit, the Yankee Drift is back to normal and the brilliant sunlight peaking through the clouds and reflecting off the newly frosty summit and hurts your eyes.
After spending much of the shift week in fog since Wednesday, we were ecstatic to glimpse sunset through a sporadic bank of clouds. While explaining to Mary Ellen that it surely must be winter, since we were braving the west winds, chilly temperatures, and eventual retina destruction, we were able to capture some of the summit's winter splendor.
As I write this comment, a cold front is fast approaching, though it will only be a minor storm compared to the monster we experienced this weekend. It will bring some of the coldest temperatures we've experienced since last April. In October, we saw temperatures dip to 8 degrees, but if the forecast models are correct, we'll see temperatures close to 5 degrees. It may seem petty, but the constant battle for weather bragging rights continues to rage. In our past week we've experience a deluge of snowfall, the strongest winds since March of 2008, soon to be the coldest temperatures since April, and a complete transformation of the summit! It looks like we win (for now) and Mary Ellen will get her snow-cat ride after all!
Stacey Kawecki – Observer and Meteorologist